There is an immense amount of data for every country
in the world and every aspect of
this issue at the USGS web site on world oil reserves.


http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/

No, they don't. They also don't think the US has peaked either. They probably never will.

Hello Everyone - I don't think any other group of individuals have ever had access to this much data concerning a crucial turning point, or end, of their civilization just as it was occurring. I'm sure many people knew when the Roman empire collapsed just because everything went to hell in handbasket. But I do believe we're the first to be observing from the heights ... just before the calamitous plunge. Oh, well, Gore Vidal has observed that History is now equipped with a fast forward button, courtesy, we can now see, of oil & gas.

I have a contribution to make to these interesting discussions. While reading Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert," certain correlations started leaping up at me. As of 4/20/07, I was ready to organize these correlations into a theory. Here is Shea's Theory:

Shea’s Theory states that when a country reaches that point in crude oil production which is known as Hubbert’s Peak (i.e., that is when fifty percent of eventual crude oil production has been reached), then within three to six years this country will experience moderate to severe economic, social, and political turmoil. The degree and timing of this turmoil depends upon the following factors: the dependence of the individual country upon its own crude oil production to meet its energy needs and to subsidize consumer imports; the rate of relative decline in production; degree of difficulty encountered in replacing missing energy inputs; and the degree to which country had prepared beforehand for this inevitable geological event.

Examples:
- United States: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1970; oil crisis followed three years later in 1973.
- Soviet Union: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; dissolution of country followed in 1991.
- Iran: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1974; revolution followed in 1979.
- Indonesia: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1991; financial crisis followed in 1997.
- Iraq: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; invasion of Kuwait followed in 1991.

While this theory is based upon historical data for countries, I believe it can be applied to the entire world. Because of our improved secondary recovery methods, I'm beginning to suspect that the plunge when it comes will be steeper than previously thought.

Ummmm.....the USGS is not considered a useful source of information in the peak oil debate. They have a record of hugely inaccurate, politically influenced projections that are usually unrealistic. I say this as a former employee of the USGS.

And since when does the USGS recieve privy information on oil reserves from the Aramco? Maybe they have some subsurface data on possible oil trapping structures- but this does not equate to an actual test with the drill bit ie proven reserves.

Jim Buckee, CEO of Talisman Inc (oil company) thinks we are at Peak Oil:

http://www.canada.com/components/print. ... 1009c97442

The list keeps on growing...

From that article

"In a nutshell, the Peak Oil theory holds that we have more or less discovered all the (significant) oil there is to find on the planet and that we are on a long, steady, decline with respect to new discoveries that is destined to conflict with soaring global demand, causing us to run out of the precious commodity at some point."

That is the most convoluted "nutshell" definition that I've heard. Where did the reporter get that from?

Probably the same place as his unexplained conclusion: "The answer, I suggest, may not be as unequivocal as Talisman's chief executive suggested Wednesday."

I haven't put Stuart in only because his well-researched and impressive calculations are only about KSA peaking, not the world.

Yet.

Here's another academic in the peak now camp. He's one of our unsung heroes, having long ago tried (and given up) warning people about peak.

This is my article about Craig Bond Hatfield.

I was wondering if anyone had any historic forecast data from any of the main forecasters?.

The reason I ask is Lynch argues there are flaws in many of the peak oilers forecast models/methods. It would be interesting to see how successful the differing camps have been in the past at predicting supply.

@Killjoy
That was a very good read on your interview with Craig Bond Hatfield. I enjoyed it immensely and realized this guy has a good head on his shoulders and has nothing to gain or lose with his predictions. Scary stuff but it confirms my worse fears. Thanks for the contribution

KJ - nice read - thanks for posting the link.

Comments section had some real winners from your buddy Savinar:

" I have a location picked out that I think may have a shot of maintaining human dignity as the shit hits the fan. I'm visiting in 6 weeks for about 10 days. "

Um...he's still a liitle behind from the date of post March 17.

"I hope to be the hell off the NA continent before the fall starts. "

Ummmm...he said not SA - sooooooooooooooooooooooooo...where do you think that would be KJ for a $2500 RT ticket?

"Do the words "Blackwater", "Halliburton" and "the Bush administration" ring a bell for you? Apparently not."

ummmmmmmmmmmmm...white guy in SA ain't gonna go over real well...ask Ruppert.

"If you're area has enough food but is not physically isolated, it will simply attract people from other areas thereby destroying whatever the advantages are."

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh....he's looking at an island...nice...better get snipped...we all know what happened on Easter Island.

"My goal is to make it to one of those pockets and try to make the best of a bad situation."

What a great goal Matthew!!!....who else thinks this is a great goal...just a show of hands will be fine.

"Come on, lets' get real. People aren't learning about it. There are about 5,000-10,000 of us who check the blogs. That's it."

And fewer who HAVE set up an off grid site...Matt U should try it sometime.

"There is no peak oil "movement" and there never will be a movement to address peak oil or any other limits to growth beyond a handfull of activists getting non-funded resolutions passed in cities that are prime nuclear targets. (portland and sf) "

Oh but Matt - there NEEDs to be a peak movement to sell more sun ovens bro...you need this movement to happen.

"Most of NA will be turned into a nuclear wasteland. Getting off the NA continent is priority #1."

Still smells like SA...maybe even Paraguay...are you lieing to us Matt? I think you are currently - as in today - in SA.

"Richard [heinberg] is almost 60. My guess is he doesn't care if he dies in the ensuing chaos. "

Really Matt - you ask him bout that? I think Heinberg does care.

"Well just go watch Children of Men as that is a pretty good approximation of what I think most of the world will fall into."

Agreed

"I'm only afraid of death without dignity. "

Wow Matt - you really are unique.

Ok - bottom line...it's not that I disagree with Matt...I just find it odd that the Alpha Male Prophet of Doom has waited as long as he has to make a move.

I guess doing "due dillgence". You know them fall out maps have only been around since the 50s.

Roccman gazes into his crystal ball (with a slight crack in it) and sees Matt "on my way to paraguay" Savinar racing to the airport for his final flight off NA only to learn the plane is out of juice.

Good luck bro.

I got out of NA earlier this year (07). I am giving Europe a try, specifically the UK. I don't think that I am comfortable with the US post peak for lots of reasons but the biggest is the definitive waste that goes on there. Sure, the North Sea is tanking and energy is expensive here but there is also an inherent resource conservatism here that I appreciate. They know how to function as a society while undergoing resource limitations. And they know how to do that and keep the level of social discourse civil.

Yes, a lot of what passes for a coping mechanism here is economic. The taxes are way too high and the committment to public transport not as thorough as it would appear upon first glance. They will have their biggest problem when their complex and overly bureaucratic civil service structure gets overwhelmed and simply freezes up or seeks to implement all of the wrong fixes. That is when I think the basic social structure here will take over. Given enough time, and enough political luck to rid themselves of geopolitical plot twisters like Blair and replace them with pragmatic investors and builders, they will work out a sustainable solution.

Solar and windpower could work here in a house by house fashion if they could get the government investment to aid those that might want to put together the packages. Going 12 volt would keep the lights on. Retro fit foam over fir strip under drywall insulation packages made available for both the DIY and contractor market is far more important than making people get a home information packet complete with energy usage documentaion for some exorbitant cost. Likewise making sure that gap plugging weather strips and window covers are available cheaply would help the UK more than, say, putting a GPS in everybody's car and using it to collect more taxes. Public transport exists but it is very expensive, even to go a limited distance. That would be okay if everything could be found locally, that is to say both food and essentials. They ought to consider electric buses from town to town linking the country together over short distances.

Enough about complaint, though, there is a good central power structure here that won't cripple up under public pressure to do every special interest thing thrown their way. They won't stop necessary projects (Severn Barrage, nuclear power) just because of a little whinging either.

Well I moved my family out of Britain, because I couldn't see it making an ordered transition to a lower energy sustainable future. None of the politicians there (or anywhere else, I suppose) understand the meaning of sustainability. More nuclear is likely, another reason to leave. Nimbyism is strong. Laws to control citizens are increasing. The weather is not great for much of the year and the amount of arable land per person is small. Land is very expensive.

However, different people see different things. Good luck with your adventure.

my sense is if the UK solves the worrying increase in state control - its seems a lot of politicians have missed the point that you can't achieve a riskless society (and nor would you want one painful though it maybe to lose a loved one as a price for that freedom) and that the current Blair/brown approach of negative freedom i.e. a democracy with lots of rules has been shown to be bankrupt; then we will actually be in a relatively good position assuming we stop any further population growth, really invest in public transport (cross-rail etc) and rediscover home grown produce. its always good to be on an island....

You've put your finger right on it. He is polite, professional, and hardly of a "doomer" mindset. He has studied this a long time and decided to quietly retire knowing there was nothing more he could do.

Imagine what a "celebrity" he could be now with peak oil getting quite a hearing on the Internetss? He chooses not to get involved anymore. What does that tell us?

The understatement of his answers is quite shocking when you think about it.