They'll all have to be on board by 2009, except Lynch who will be claiming above-ground constraints.

We have covered the credibilty of Pickens in great detail before
http://www.peakoil.com/post279582.html#279582
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic24296.html

Your comments are unrelated to this topic, so why bring this up again here?

No. Not unrelated. They are related. People were wondering whether it means anything when Pickens cries peak. He cried peak before, at 82 and 84 mbd. So he does that rather freely (when he feels like), and thus - this information maybe useful to somebody who sees an expert in Pickens.

He is a Forbes-rated top-rich person, a well known greenmailer. I expect him to say not what he thinks but what is profitable for him. Blessed is he who thinks he is honest. You are blessed

James R. Schlesinger, a leading expert in the energy field and the first U.S. Secretary of Energy, spoke yesterday evening at the Lyric about the nation’s energy crisis. Schlesinger is also currently co-chairing a study for the Department of Defense energy strategy. He articulated that consumption of oil as an energy source in today’s society is a serious problem that will not disappear in the near future, but rather demand immediate attention.

“We are not going to reach energy independence in this nation and have better control over our national security as long as we remain dependent on the internal combustion engine and air traffic to move people and goods,” Schlesinger said.

With $5 billion worth of oil being used daily and the world’s existing oil fields in a decline of about 4% a year, Schlesinger detailed three relatively immediate alternatives: conservation, renewable resources and nuclear power. However, his prediction that future demand for oil would mean finding the equivalence of nine Saudia Arabia’s had more of an impact on the crowd.

Peaking of world oil production: Recent forecasts
Predicting the timing of a peak may not be possible, but inadequate investment could make geological considerations moot.
Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC
April 2007

Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, or peak, after which production will decline.1 Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of world conventional oil production peaking. The recent range of such estimates extends from late 2005 to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare.

Because of the large uncertainties, it is difficult to define an overriding geological basis for accepting or rejecting any of the forecasts. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that worldwide investment in expanded oil production has been considerably less than needed to continue world oil production that is adequate to meet expected world demand. Thus, geological limits may be yielding to inadequate investment.

Peak oil presents the world with a risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity. Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures roughly 20 years before peaking, to avoid a very damaging world liquid fuels shortfall.2 Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur or whether it will be due to geological or investment constraints, the challenge is indeed vexing.

You're right Newsseeker, Pickens is the only guy who has called a peak before, the others are first time callers. I don't believe this has happened before. Based on this video I'd say that Hubbert called it for around now first, over 30 years ago.

I looked at the article by Koskela. Did not read much of it, but noted a factual error in the end remarks: He says that oil has replaced coal. Granted, coal was not the topic of his article, but it is quite interesting that this misconception is so entrenched. I thought so too until a last years or so, while reading this thread or some similar. Coal consumption has not decreased, just moved a bit out of view. Concurrently with using more and more oil, we (humanity) are using as much coal as ever.

nocar

Are there heavyweight thinkers in the industry who contest Hubbert-Deffeyes?