The U.S. is a strange place. I am currently living on the hurricane-devastated Gulf Coast. This is not an area noted for its progressive ideas, but prior to the storm I was able to travel by bike along a boardwalk/sidewalk that stretched 30 miles along the beach and connected all the major communities in the area.

I was and still am frustrated by the poor public transport available here. There is a railroad that runs a few blocks from the beach. It connects all the beach communities and passes near or through many of the local points of economic interest - universities and colleges, malls, military and other government facilities, neighborhoods - yet the only trains that run are freights. Bus service is available but there are few stops and the schedules are sparse. Yet, at the same time, buses run through my neighborhood every day and even pass directly in front of my house! They are big and yellow and have "School Bus" written on them. Strangely, all American communities run these bus lines. They transport millions every weekday. It seems that in a petroleum emergency these existing bus services could be expanded and run every day, transporting ordinary people when they are not transporting students.

BTW, I was in Mountain View CA last fall for an engineering competition. Excellent bus and light rail service throughout the valley.

Regards,
M.R.F.

I don't know about the rest of cities in the US, but mine saw a HUGE increase in driveoffs @ gas stations last summer when gas prices spiked. I'd wager that $5 gas would result in increased crime/rioting/mobs/etc...

Comparing US-Europe? Your women strut around the beaches topless...you don't see that here!?!

We drive more because we have cheap gas in the US.

Take cheap gas out of the equation and mass transit starts to be the only thing that makes sense for getting people around.

Not to mention the fact that mass transit saves billions in road work and repairs.

According to all the figures I've seen, car ownership rates and VMT in America are roughly double that of Europe, so for every person you know driving 12k miles per year in Europe, there must be another one that doesn't drive at all. Not so in the US.



Such an easy thing to say. I drive a 35 MPG car (really efficient by American standards) and I can't afford to have my monthly fuel bill double, at least not without cutting out discretionary spending. You know, the kind of spending that runs this economy.

No its not. You just do what people in the UK do... Buy a motorbike if you cant afford a car. Not only is it cheaper, its faster too. as you can slip through stationary traffic.

and if you can't afford a motorbike move closer to where you work and get a bicycle. Quit whingeing. Theres always a way.

That's why Pickens, the NY Times, and others are calling for a gas tax that is offset by a decrease in the payroll tax.

It makes sense, but isn't like to happen. AARP would have a fit. They would see it as a threat to social security, plus many of their members are retired, and wouldn't benefit from a drop in the payroll tax.

I'm sorry, but groups like the American trucking industry, the Teamsters, the asphalt paving associations and a thousand other powerful lobbies will ensure that U.S. major transportation expenditures are spend on more roads and highways, not on mass transit.

In Colorado, a monorail was proposed from Denver to the ski areas around Aspen. The lobbies were out in full force ensuring billion of dollars would be spent widening the Interstate rather than building the high-speed monorail.

As Kunstler said, we'll continue doing what we're doing until we can't and then we won't."

barbara please think of the BIG picture. Here in america when 6 bucks/gal comes NATIONWIDE in all states then the economy really starts to fail. In the absence of susbsidies the US begins the death spiral at 6/bucks a gallon. but it has to be firmly entrenched in ALL states first.

Out here in suburbia, the locals drive about 10,000 miles per year, and the average car gets about 20 mpg. That's 500 gallons of gas per year.

At $2.25, the current price, that comes to about $1125 per year. A gas price of $5 per gallon would mean an increased cost of $1375 per year, or $115 per month give or take.

An average $200K suburbian home, mortgaged for 30 years at 6% would have a mortgage payment of $1193 per month. The same house at 7% would be $1322 per month, a difference of $129 per month, or $1548 per year. So, a 1% interest rate increase would be more damaging than a $2.75 gasoline price increase.

The average 1 pack per day cigarette smoker pays about $4.50 per pack, in certain parts of the country. By quitting, they could offset either of the above increases in living cost, with savings of $135 per month, or $1642 per year. 22% of the population still smokes.

So, the question of the day is: Would an increase to $5 gasoline cause serious economic problems for the average joe schmoe american? The answer is, in the grand scheme of things, although painful, people would pay it unless it got to the point where they could not give anything up.


Cig Prices

smoking prevalence

I think thats too simplistic. You are ignoring the fact that when thier gas goes up $2.75/gal all of thier other expenses will go up by a large percentage. I have been observing inflation (Real) rates by comparing my reciepts over a 3 year period at the same place for the same purchases. I am seeing between 7-12% annually on various items with a few under 5%. Joe suburbanites food costs would go up 30-50% in short I expect if gas hit $5.00/gallon. As would clothes, cigs, etc. And with inflation soaring interest rates would likely go up rapidly as well...

-G

I wish you were right. But google some pictures, or google earth some shots of major american metro areas. We are trapped into infrastructure that ddemands lots of driving. Even if you wanted to bike, since all the single use pods are hooked up via four or more lane arteries, doing so would be treacherous. Add to that the fact that we really didn't have the money for the iraq adventure in the first place. So now we doubly don't have it.

At 5$ many americans will be hurting bad. Much higher than that and I suspect there will be serious economic ramifications. However, for us to see these cities retrofitted to walkable neighborhoods, with mass transit, and efficient vehicles, well, we may be talking about 10$ a gallon.

But at that point, will we be able to afford it?

Problem is, the interest rate is going up in addition to everything else. Most real estate is as dependent as any industry upon proliferous supplies of cheap oil, perhaps more so.

I understand that $5 gas will reduce consumer spending thus stalling the economy. But I also realize the economical system has the tendency to self-adapt to the new situation, which leads me to think that, bar a severe supply crisis, things will continue to run on "business as usual"-style in the mid-term.

Sure, there will be a shock in the beginning, especially if the raise $2,5 --> $5 is done overnight, but I guess the system will manage to adapt.

Of course... my guess is as good as yours

I think you are correct about the larger economy, those who have the means to invest in more efficient technologies will do so, but the U.S. can be considered anything but a free market utopia when it comes to making decisions about energy issues. While the larger market may be adjusting to $5/gas, I can guarantee that our government will still be building freeways and roads and handing out oil & biofuel subsidies as if gas still were less than a buck a gallon. Kunstler is right on this one.

It' amazing when you crunch the numbers to find out that even $5 motor fuel is still cheap, relative to everything else in our economy that demands energy. Gasoline is way-way-way too cheap. There is something really fucked up when the price per volume to something as energy dense & high quality as gasoline is about the same price as Coca-Cola.

This is why I think the government is going to have institute draconian gasoline rationing when the crunch comes. We've created this National Traffic Jam beast that will not be detoured by even 10$ gasoline until such an oil price destroy the economy and nobody has any reason to drive. In short, there is, and has been, a severe price imbalance between the price of motor fuel the impact of energy in other economic sectors that are more important than mass motoring. This imbalance will expose itself when SHTF. The government will have no choice than to ration driving.