It does seem like there has been some small variation in what Pickens has said over the last two years. I am not sure if that is because he was talking about conventional prodcution or all production including non-conventional.

He did mention the 85 mil figure since last summer, and has not increased the figure since then.

Because predictions keep you alive. The ability to predict, analyze and counter potential or materializing threats is essential both for individual and collective survival.

You can't get out of bed without making predictions, for example the prediction that you will slip on the wet bathroom floor if you start dancing in there.

How many people died when Boone's prediction turned out wrong? How many people died when Colin Campbell's numerous predictions turned out wrong? How many people died when Mike Lynch's predictions turned out wrong?

Let's stay focused, and try to understand why it's so important to predict next years oil prices, or the exact year when peak oil will occur. Clearly those predictions aren't a life/death issue.

JD,

All successul businesses use and depend on accurately forecasting trends, using predictions and models - Very common with any big company forecasting sales and trends. Why, for example, would any company invest the capital in a deep water well in the Gulf of Mexico if the amount of oil, production, and peak weren't estimated? They wouldn't. Predictions are a necessary part of business and done daily. Decisions can't be made without them.

Predictions are also a necessary part of gov't opertions - without projections, predictions, we would be unable to forecast medicare, social security, or any other gov't program, the US wouldn't know how many bonds or what kind of bonds to sell on any given day to finance its debt.

Is peak oil forecasting necessary? I think so. If the 70s oil crisis taught the world anything, its how important oil is to the world economy. Jimmy Carter seemed to think oil was an issue, declared ME oil a national security interest of the U.S., and further made some attempt to get the US off of oil. Further, George Bush said the United States must end its addiction to oil, so, why is oil so important if there is so much of it and it will never run out? If oil were plentiful and not in danger of running out, the United States wouldn't be so worried about getting over its addiction. Therefore, forecasting as accurately as possible a world oil production peak seems a necessary first step in getting the U.S. off of its oil production peak. Its necessary to know when the get serious time is and decine when the gov't must lead the way rather than waiting for private industry to lead the way.


Further, the Hirsch report shows the importance of predicting a world oil production peak. That report concludes that peak oil could cause serious economic repercussions if not mitigated (until there is a good analysis showing how the Hirsch report is wrong, I will subscribe to it). That report opines that it would take 20 years of mitigation efforts to transition America off of oil to mitigate serious economic effects. Since this report was done at the request of the DOE, since the president says the oil addiction must end, I would hope that the DOE also agrees that forecasting a peak oil date is as important as forecasting the bankruptcy of Social Security, medicare, or any other number of gov't programs.

Since many people believe that world oil peak will occur between 2012-2015 (including Saudi Arabia), the gov't ought to at least, in light of the Hirsch report, make its own determination as to when world oil production will peak. Maybe it has, since we are fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., and not bc of weapons of mass destruction.

With 55 of the world’s 65 largest oil fields presently in decline where do you suppose that the oil production necessary to exceed of 85 mb/d is going to come from? Pickens is probably right.

Seahorse2, you're quite right that forecasting is important for business, investors etc. But that's not what I'm asking. Why is it important FOR YOU PERSONALLY, as an ordinary individual, to know the exact date of peak oil, or next year's oil prices?

As a businessman, person who someday wants to retire, and father, living in an oil dependent US and a global economy, its important to me personally for any number of reasons. As a lawyer, its important bc they type of legal business will change. More creditor law possible? need to shift my practice. I live in an area known as the Faytteville oil shale where many companies think there may be big natural gas plays now, which were previously uneconomical. Understanding oil/gas leases, mineral rights, etc., is a good area.

As an individual planning for retirement? I personally have benefited by understanding peak oil, energy issues, by buying coal stocks, oil company stocks, things like that which have seen tremendous gains in only the two years I've been following them. People that understand peak oil understand the importance of not buying a GM SUV despite 0% financing and the personal benefit of getting a Japanese hybrid, or buying Japanese car stocks and not GM or Ford stock. Go work for Toyota in Alabama and not GM in Detroit. Personally benefit from the first ever tax break offered for a hybrid this year in the United States. Look at gold for example. I first learned about peak oil while trying to understand dollar valuation issues, which led to oil being traded in dollars, which lead to peak oil. When I accepted many aspects of what is going on, I realized gold would be a better investment than many others. In 2002, gold was $404 an ounce, today as I write it closed at about $587 an ounce.

As a father, understanding these issues and educating my kids is a big part of my role as a teacher. The world will not be the same as they grow. They need to start learning that now, and try to pick businesses and investments that will hopefully help them, and collectively, all of us. There is a big dynamic change going on that very few people are aware of or accept yet - and maybe not until its too late. Knowledge is power, forewarned is being for-armed, and therefore, a good understanding of all the issues of peak oil and how they interrelate is important on a personal level,and collectively as well.

I wouldn't consider anyone who follows Peak Oil, ordinary. We are certainly in the minority. One of the main purposes of this site is education and preparation. Part of that preparation is trying to determine timeframes. It better allows one to prepare for the future, each of us doing so in our own way. I think it relates to comfort level for most people. It gives them a reference to plan by.

Seahorse2,
Insofar as it's all about making a quick buck, you've got a point. It's like betting on horses at the track, so you can see where people might be interested.
I guess what I'm wondering about is this: If you're just talking about preparing for peak oil, not profiteering, why does the exact date, or next year's gasoline prices matter? If you're worried about oil prices, you can go out and buy a scooter today. If you're worried about the food system caving in, you can move out to the country today. If you're worried about your job falling through, you can switch jobs today. So why is everybody so hung up on when the exact date is? It seems like a waste of time and nervous energy. If you were really worried about gas prices, wouldn't you just stop using gas so you wouldn't have to worry about it anymore?

Hi JD,

The personal reasons cannot be separated from the fact I care about the world and country I live in. I've always cared about the world around me. I think many people do. When people don't, society runs into brick walls like peak oil unprepared. However, as I said I also have three kids and its my responsibility to make the world a better place for them. Those kids can't change jobs etc as you suggest. Its my responsibility to make sure that our society prepares for peak oil and doesn't simply let it hit like a tsunami, otherwise, my kids will be there picking up the pieces.

Whether its peak oil, social security, or any other problem facing all of us, society needs to understand the problem and begin dealing with the problem, which is dealt with partially and importantly by all of the individuals making the best personal decisions in the framework and understanding to best help themselves and society dealing with the problem.

If people only acted in their self-interest, I guess they would simply quit voting, but that wouldn't be good.

Even if we are going to peak around 2012 we need to do something now! Why isn't our government implementing Hirsh's reccomendations to ameliorate the situation? We may even have the 10 years that we need to keep severe pain from happening. I don't think Pickens is wrong. I think 85 mbpd is about it. We came up so steeply in this decade that it will be painful if we are at peak. We went from 76 to 85 in about 4 years. We may even come down that quick too. Let's hope not!

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Revi said:



The explosion of alternative extraction methods like horizontal drilling, employing brush bottom wells and other secondary and tertiary extraction practices over the last 30 years, makes it very likely that on the back side of Peak will be a cliff. We have seen several examples of this effect already take place, such as, at Yibal and with some of the huge declines witnessed in North Shore and North Sea production. Once we begin falling off our present production plateau we could easily see a free fall that could result in catastrophic consequences for the economy and for the production and distribution of goods in our present world wide on demand supply system. We have, unfortunately, taken very little consideration of the possible implications of Catastrophe Theory when looking at PO. This may result in a crave oversight on the part of the PO community. But since most of society hasn’t even taken into consideration the possible impact of PO in general, our oversight, if it does occur, will probably be lost in the background noise of the social panic that will result if there is a sudden decline in world oil production.

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As long as there is a steady supply of demagogues and cynics to mock peak oilers, placate the populace, and distract authorities we'll never react in time. It is just human nature to avoid problems until the last minute.

We have obligation to raise the flag and call attention to this coming crisis. To laugh and make fun of brave people who stand alone is unconscionable. JD.

It seems like nobody is listening to us peak oilers. I have decided that we should warn others and prepare ourselves in the meantime. I just bought a small piece of land that has hydroelectric potential. Now is the time to get ready for your kids. Buy them a piece of cut over woodland, or some arable land. It may prove to be a lifeboat that may take them into the low energy future. The people who are running this place don't seem to be doing anything. We have to save ourselves.

Before you guys start praising this guy, remember, he had a prediction
that oil would go to 50 back in Feb,,,, so why are you guys so enamoured
with him ??
Then everyone on CNBC got on the bandwagon for 50 oil crash before
the oil stocks tanked in Feb.