That and the new storm. Monday will be very exciting... yup!

IMHO, the underlying driver of the current price volatility is the difference between supply and demand on a daily basis.

during the last "oil price shock" (1999?) there was a 5 mbd cushion. supply exceeded demand by 5 million barrels on a daily basis.

that cushion has shrunk to 1 million barrels now. any disruption in supply or even potential disruption in supply will cause the price to spike.

Nigeria, Iran, Tropical Storm Whoever, will all cause oil to spike because there simply isn't enough production on a daily basis to keep the work adequately supplied, in the event of even a minor disruption in supply.

Iran's oil production of 4 mbd can hardly be called a minor disruption. you're right, Monday will be interesting day in the markets.

Oil closed marginally higher, to just under US$129 in the markets over here today.

theres no doubt iran strives to be a nuclear power in the middle east. what i find interesting is how the west wants to stop them via discussion or economic sanctions, when the iranians would want to gain there nuclear power this way. string along the west and aviod confrontation until such time as you are a nuclear power, then who'd dare start confrontation?

i see this problem ending either at the brink of confrontation with iran accepting defeat of its nuclear ambitions, or iran pushing its luck too far ths causing confrontation.

whats your thoughts?

Just a gentle reminder: oil prices have not gone down. The futures contracts for Aug delivery have closed lower. The folks I know who actually sell and buy oil haven't changed the price structure any significant level. Come Aug we'll see if the future players guessed right: if oil is above $135 or so a lot of them are going to loose a big chunk of capital. And if they leveraged on options they'll be slaughtered. But that's the life of a gambler. If oil futures drops below $120 they'll make a nice profit and get credit for helping to lower oil prices (snicker).

The fall has resumed. It's down to $126.26 this morning. Next pause will likely be at the 50% retracement line: $122.60.

Meanwhile natural gas continues to close in on it's 200 day moving average. From $13.69 on 7/2, August natural gas contracts are down to $9.88 today. The 200 day moving average is at $9.72.

SPG - so far your call has been dead on. Well done.

Ouch again. Tomorrow will be a very interesting day.
$100, $100, $100
$80, $80 twice, Sold for $80

Cashmere I like you new avatar..... The old one made was just disgusting

You were warned.

Losers don't know when to cut their losses.

Actually, I don't T - I'm still waiting on the PM with your contact info so we can set up the private commodities contract.

Umm...yeah. This would not be the moment to be buying commodities. Not unless you enjoy losing money. Give it a week or two and the story may be totally different. If you go to the NYMEX website right now, you will notice that all the numbers under "change" are red. They all fell today.

Not even April first yet !

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/ ... efault.stm

Awesome! Did half of Asia die off all of a sudden?

No need to answer that, I'm headed out to the mountains for me some off-roadin adventure!

Nice bad print.

On one side I'm happy for the drop, on the other I know...I KNOW it'll kill alternatives and people will have it in their heads "Well, we just gotta drill more".

Good for the short term, but even worse for the long term (The price drop that is)