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View unanswered posts | View active topics
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eastbay
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:47 pm |
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Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 6454 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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smallpoxgirl wrote: why does a commodity that is in the situation you described have an $8 dollar drop in one day?
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
drop from open to close.
At one point it was briefly down around nine bucks, most of that in one freaky few minute dive. 
_________________ Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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lowem
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:56 pm |
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Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 1754 Location: Singapore
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Okay, so it was a $10.81 drop from a session high of $146.73 to the session low of $135.92, but let's not forget that $135.04 was an *all-time record high* less than two months ago.
The early peakoilers have long ago warned us that as we get near the peak, prices will become more and more volatile. We are already getting used to seeing $10 swings in both directions, and Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading had commented on that recently as well.
Now, I suspect that the next step is to get $15 swings, and then $20 swings, in both directions, and things will start to get more and more "interesting".
_________________ Live quotes - oil/gold/silver
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smallpoxgirl
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:32 pm |
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Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 7742
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eastbay wrote: Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week.
_________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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smallpoxgirl
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:42 am |
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Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 7742
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Down another $4.50 today.
_________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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eastbay
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:47 am |
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Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 6454 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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smallpoxgirl wrote: eastbay wrote: Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44 OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week.
It could end up similar to what occurred last January when energy markets corrected 20%+ then sprang back 40%+ from those lows until the recent correction. Up, down, up down... isn't watching the energy market fun! Especially if you in it! 
_________________ Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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emersonbiggins
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:56 am |
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Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5320 Location: Dallas
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Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
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CoachT
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:58 am |
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Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 15
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$130, $130, $130
Do I hear $100, $100, $100
Do I hear $80, going twice, Sold fo $80.
Was that a good price or not?
Fools don't know when to get out.
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pstarr
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:07 am |
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Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 10084 Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
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CoachT wrote: $130, $130, $130
Do I hear $100, $100, $100
Do I hear $80, going twice, Sold fo $80.
Was that a good price or not?
Fools don't know when to get out. Why not $40?
Why not $20
What's to keep it above $10?
So are you saying peak oil is a lie?
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hironegro
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:08 am |
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Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 432
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emersonbiggins wrote: Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?
Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.
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SoylentGreen
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:09 am |
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Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am Posts: 166
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NOBODY knows.It could have peaked pricewise and may trade between $110 and $145 for a while? Im betting theyre will be a spike after the Bejing Olympics.
Were on a production downslope 2-4 years out before the cliff goes vertical.
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HEADER_RACK
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:11 am |
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Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:00 am Posts: 499
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hironegro wrote: emersonbiggins wrote: Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession? Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.
Which would then destroy the demand destruction allowing for the price to spike again 
_________________ Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
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smallpoxgirl
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:12 am |
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Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 7742
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emersonbiggins wrote: So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?
I vote recession.
_________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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ColossalContrarian
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:12 am |
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Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:00 am Posts: 892
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eastbay wrote: What's developed today is generally called a 'buying opportunity' folks.
Yes, China will be sure to take advantage of this opportunity as well as many other nations who hold dollars. What better way to dump the dollar than send those dollars to the ME?
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smallpoxgirl
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:16 am |
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Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 7742
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eastbay wrote: It could end up similar to what occurred last January when energy markets corrected 20%+ then sprang back 40%+ from those lows until the recent correction. Up, down, up down... isn't watching the energy market fun! Especially if you in it! 
That's more or less what I'd expect. Actually, look at gold over the last couple of months. It did exactly this sort of thing. After a long bull run it dropped back to the 200 day moving average. Now it's off and running again.
_________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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emersonbiggins
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Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:30 am |
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Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 5320 Location: Dallas
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HEADER_RACK wrote: hironegro wrote: emersonbiggins wrote: Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession? Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price. Which would then destroy the demand destruction allowing for the price to spike again 
Exactly. We are in a death-spiral with oil.
Oil down. Stock market up. Financials check yes to a few new projects. Projects get built. Demand increases. Oil goes up.
Meanwhile, population is going up the entire time.
_________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
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