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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:47 pm 
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smallpoxgirl wrote:
why does a commodity that is in the situation you described have an $8 dollar drop in one day?



Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
drop from open to close.

At one point it was briefly down around nine bucks, most of that in one freaky few minute dive. 8O

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:56 pm 
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Okay, so it was a $10.81 drop from a session high of $146.73 to the session low of $135.92, but let's not forget that $135.04 was an *all-time record high* less than two months ago.

The early peakoilers have long ago warned us that as we get near the peak, prices will become more and more volatile. We are already getting used to seeing $10 swings in both directions, and Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading had commented on that recently as well.

Now, I suspect that the next step is to get $15 swings, and then $20 swings, in both directions, and things will start to get more and more "interesting".

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:32 pm 
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eastbay wrote:
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44


OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:42 am 
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Down another $4.50 today.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:47 am 
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smallpoxgirl wrote:
eastbay wrote:
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44


OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week.



It could end up similar to what occurred last January when energy markets corrected 20%+ then sprang back 40%+ from those lows until the recent correction. Up, down, up down... isn't watching the energy market fun! Especially if you in it! 8O

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:56 am 
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Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.

So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:58 am 
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$130, $130, $130

Do I hear $100, $100, $100

Do I hear $80, going twice, Sold fo $80.

Was that a good price or not?

Fools don't know when to get out.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:07 am 
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CoachT wrote:
$130, $130, $130

Do I hear $100, $100, $100

Do I hear $80, going twice, Sold fo $80.

Was that a good price or not?

Fools don't know when to get out.
Why not $40?

Why not $20

What's to keep it above $10?

So are you saying peak oil is a lie?


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:08 am 
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emersonbiggins wrote:
Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.

So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?


Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:09 am 
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NOBODY knows.It could have peaked pricewise and may trade between $110 and $145 for a while? Im betting theyre will be a spike after the Bejing Olympics.
Were on a production downslope 2-4 years out before the cliff goes vertical.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:11 am 
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hironegro wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.

So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?


Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.


Which would then destroy the demand destruction allowing for the price to spike again :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:12 am 
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emersonbiggins wrote:
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?


I vote recession.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:12 am 
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eastbay wrote:
What's developed today is generally called a 'buying opportunity' folks.


Yes, China will be sure to take advantage of this opportunity as well as many other nations who hold dollars. What better way to dump the dollar than send those dollars to the ME?


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:16 am 
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eastbay wrote:
It could end up similar to what occurred last January when energy markets corrected 20%+ then sprang back 40%+ from those lows until the recent correction. Up, down, up down... isn't watching the energy market fun! Especially if you in it! 8O


That's more or less what I'd expect. Actually, look at gold over the last couple of months. It did exactly this sort of thing. After a long bull run it dropped back to the 200 day moving average. Now it's off and running again.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:30 am 
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HEADER_RACK wrote:
hironegro wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.

So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?


Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.


Which would then destroy the demand destruction allowing for the price to spike again :lol:


Exactly. We are in a death-spiral with oil.

Oil down. Stock market up. Financials check yes to a few new projects. Projects get built. Demand increases. Oil goes up.

Meanwhile, population is going up the entire time.

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