THE Price of Crude Thread pt 1 (merged) Archived

MicroHydro · **Joined:** Sun Apr 10, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1280

Spot crude could decline to a low of $35-$40 due to recession. But still, the Dec 2011 future contract is a steal at less than $50.

nth · **Joined:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1976

Prices will not stay above 50 if oil demands are less than 87mbpd. I think that was the peak in 2004. If the peak this year is less than last year, prices will drop hard.

tmazanec1 · **Joined:** Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 421

Then won't demand jump back up?

MicroHydro · **Joined:** Sun Apr 10, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1280

If prices drop hard, demand will recover pretty quickly as well. High prices have not been around long enough to change structural demand.

khebab · **Posted:** Tue Apr 19, 2005 9:10 am

The price are currently up $1.23 on Nymex, does anybody know why? any bad news?

AirlinePilot · **Posted:** Tue Apr 19, 2005 9:59 am

I just read there are some refinery problems in Texas and Louisiana. Just another sign that the infrastructure is stretched to it's limits.

khebab · **Posted:** Tue Apr 19, 2005 10:47 am

Quote:

Crude prices rose back above $51 per barrel Tuesday, as a move by Russian authorities to freeze the main remaining assets of Yukos unsettled markets, even amid expectations of further accumulation in U.S. crude stocks.

src: Crude prices edge higher as Moscow launches assault on Yukos

nth · **Joined:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1976

Market traders are claiming the shorts are covering.

frankthetank · **Posted:** Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:14 am

I see Nymex was over 53 when i last checked...up or down...a lot probably depends on these weekly inventory things they put out...

Is $50 the new bottom?

tmazanec1 · **Joined:** Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 421

Is $50 the new bottom?

Probably.

nth · **Joined:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1976

According to what I read, 50 is the bottom and we won't see it anymore, unless demand falls. Inventory supplies will not persuade them to sell as we are entering May.

They are seeing oil refineries still projecting heavy summer demand, so they are purchasing their oil needs in May.

I am curious what is the maximum storage for US commercial interests that is being reported weekly?

Also, curious to see Bush/SA meeting to see what SA got to say about their capacity for this year.

tokyo_to_motueka · **Posted:** Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:05 pm

nth wrote:

Grimnir wrote:

Of course, today's "low" price of $50 would still have been unbelievably high about a year ago.

Yes, but to play devil's advocate, this is just the beginning of the bubble bursting!

well, the DOE weekly report shows the first drop in crude inventories in 10 weeks on lower imports and higher refinery utilisation.

the May05 NYMEX contract finished at $52.44 but it expired this session.
from tomorrow we are onto the June05 contract, which finished at $54.03.

doesn't seem like the bubble is bursting to me. :wink:

nth · **Joined:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1976

tokyo_to_motueka wrote:

well, the DOE weekly report shows the first drop in crude inventories in 10 weeks on lower imports and higher refinery utilisation.

the May05 NYMEX contract finished at $52.44 but it expired this session.
from tomorrow we are onto the June05 contract, which finished at $54.03.

doesn't seem like the bubble is bursting to me. :wink:

Yup, most market investors that I read said 50 is the bottom.
Waiting for disaster to pump up the prices.

seb · **Posted:** Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:59 am

up, up, up! $54.71

The bubble is bursting? :cry:

It is a very little pop! Anyway, it is not a bubble...

nth · **Joined:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 1976

I be very surprised if prices go down to the mid 40's.
As I said earlier, I don't believe we will see that. I was joking about the bubble bursting. Playing devil's advocate.

THE Price of Crude Thread pt 1 (merged) Archived

Who is online