A good portion of recent price hikes is market panic, releasing stock from the SPR and the help of Europe probably eased sentiments a little on the market.

btw, that is, ofcourse, like all, an educated guess

edit: just picked this up on BBC news page:

Oil prices have fallen further on Thursday after data from the US Energy Department said American demand was now below the level seen a year ago.

Demand seems to be slowing, however, I guess we'll know a lot more by mid-winter. Overhere prices of gasoline/diesel and heating oil continue to rise. NG is set to rise after new year...
I'll look into placing a woodstove tomorrow!

Man oil is dropping like a rock. 61.18

prepare to be seriously screwed all those who went long on oil with October contracts ouch!

There is no way that demand destruction has taken effect fast enough and deep enough to justify a drop like this.

Katrina and Rita have done too much damage for prices to be dropping like they are.

Eli~I was reading a columnist (or communist?) this morning from Thestreet i think, he was talking aout $50 oil. BS! I think we'd have to see demand plunge(or supply increase) to see that again. I just don't see it in everyday life. People still seem to be driving, speeding, passing...

And winter is almost here!

This situation is totally crazy Frank.

Diesel retail is setting all time records and there are major problems supplying heating oil as well. Distillate stocks are dropping fast when they should be in build mode.

So all petroleum products are declining across the board now?

If oil drops in below 61 today I bet will see it stop falling and head back north.

I think what is going on is this market is shaking out all the amateur players right now with its volatility. All the fresh fish are being eaten by the big fish and then it will be off to the races once again.

Demand destruction my ass. People still have jobs and trucks are still hauling goods the amount of demand destruction needed to keep pace with supply constrictions we have seen come at a very high cost of pain to average people. This ain't demand destruction.

Hell NG is down too... they all of sudden got all the Gulf producing again?
If I had gambling money this would be a great time to make a bet.

I bet T Boone is going nuts right now with buy orders.

With the recent reports you would think everyone in America went out and bought Hybrids, and Bicycles. There are 300 million vehicles in America. It's crazy! The economist wont jump until the full extent of picture is seen. What that is I have no idea. How can prices head south when it was higher before the Hurricane sisters? I have worn a bald spot on my head from scratching it. Maybe we will see a true reaction when we get a pipeline evaluation from the GOM.

If you ignore the spike the spot price for gasoline is steadly going up.

This is why I'm glad I don't have enough money to play the oil futures game. It would drive me crazy. I would have bet oil would be around 70 by this week, with all the demand for heating oil and gasoline in short supply. I would have lost my shirt. Better to watch from the sidelines.

Its been very warm for most of the Northeast and slightly unseasonably warm for most of the US these last few weeks. I think things will turn around very quickly for the worse on the first big cold snap and that is due any day now. People just have really short memories and I think they are forgetting its ALMOST WINTER!

Where I live, today is nearly 30F colder than yesterday.

Edit: I take back the "nearly"--today's high was 34F lower than yesterday's.

It is 100F right now in the San Diego inland areas.

Major drop here - never got over 50 at my house... It was 80 the day before... Good thing I don't use natural gas....

-G

Haven't had to turn the heat on here yet. The lowest it's been overnight was about 50F (10C) and it was only for a night or two before getting warmer again.

The biggest clue is that the DJIA is falling. That will bring down the price of oil, etc.

If the price of oil starts going back up the DJIA will be going back up too.

Okay , help me out here. Im not big into this commodities lark but it appears to be an unpredictable beast. Not very helpful as I presume many people are looking at price as being a good indicator of scarcity , an indicator to the PO situation perhaps.

It makes sense that something scarce is more valuable than something abundant. Gold is expensive and air is free , sea water is free if youre near by to it and so on.

Surely with Oil it would be useful if you could interpret something out of the volumes being traded , assuming you get to know of course.

Rising price , low volume ... (more demand from a small supply ?)
Rising price , high volume (high demand , from a big but inadequate supply?)
Falling Price , low volume (Low Demand , excessive supply ?)
Falling price , high volume (High demand from still excessive supply?)

It just seems to me that prices are a bit 1 dimensional.

Anyway , just a thought ......

Paul