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Light Sweet Crude Oil
 

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Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 963 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 ... 65  Next
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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:21 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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There is no will left in the short sellers. Oil is up to $66.90 which is still a bargain compared to where oil is headed to. Peak oil is natures way of issueing a stock buy back.

By bet is $70 by the end of the week.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:22 pm 
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Tar Sands
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Is this the week we break $70?


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:30 pm 
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Master
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Posts: 5845
Location: Southwest WI
Broke 67...

3 dudes can find someway to stay warm :) Turn off the heat and jump in sleeping bags if it gets too bad.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:44 pm 
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News Editor
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According to CNN:

Quote:
U.S. light sweet crude for October delivery closed at $67.25 a barrel, after spiking above $68.


Kind of the opposite of what happened last week. Last week, the report came out, and prices spiked, then dropped for the rest of the day.

This week, the price fell when the report came out, then started rising.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:54 pm 
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Moderator
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Posts: 933
Location: Canada
Leanan wrote:
This week, the price fell when the report came out, then started rising.

CNBC wrote:
U.S. data released Wednesday morning showed gasoline inventories in the world's biggest energy consumer tumbled 3.2 million barrels last week, or nearly 2 percent, with two weeks of the peak U.S. driving season to go.

"The gasoline draw is a bullish number, without doubt. The decline was much bigger than the 1.1 million barrels draw the Street was anticipating," said Jim Ritterbusch, analyst at Ritterbusch and Associates.

The market was also watching Tropical Storm Katrina gather strength over the Bahamas and take aim at Florida's southern tip and the oil producing Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for up to a quarter of U.S. oil output.

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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:55 pm 
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$67.20 @ 2:20 PM ET record broken?

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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:56 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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Location: UK
Yes a new record :-D


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:00 pm 
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New record: $67.35

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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm 
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The thing is, last week's report was pretty similar to this week's. Oil up, gas down. But the reaction was the opposite.

CNN has taken back the $68 thing. Now they are saying:

Quote:
U.S. light sweet crude for October delivery closed at $67.35 a barrel, up $1.64, after spiking as high as $67.40.


They've been kind of flaky the past few days. Yesterday, they reported the DJ ended flat, when it was down 50 pts. Very weird. I think Reuters, which supplies a lot of their business info, has been having technical difficulties.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:08 pm 
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Once again we are seeing evidence of underlying BIG problems. Using the threat of a minor Hurricane as reason to speculate price is indicative to me the market is on the edge of some very precarious point. Katrina will likely barely be a Hurricane as it crosses FL on Friday and as yet there are no models which predict it to attain more than Cat 1/2 status once it emerges into the Gulf.

Speculation based solely on the outside chance SOME production could be curtailed without any actual damage yet signals to me we are very near this tipping point in the market.

I hope it isn't a big one for the sake of the folks down there who have endured so much of this lately. I think our luck is running out though with regards to things staying on a nice smooth path. I find it hard to believe there has been no succesfull terrorist attack on a refinery, port facilty, or production/extraction infrastructure yet.

I guess my doomerosity level is climbing!


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:12 pm 
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Heavy Crude
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Posts: 242
Location: Kingston, ON, Canada
Bah, to all of you suggesting that four guys can easily stay warm.

Lots of people are into that kind of thing. I, however, am not -- I do have a girlfriend that lives five blocks away, though, so between the two of us we should stay warm. Her house is heated with oil, mine with natural gas -- I'm not sure which will be more expensive!


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:18 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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Natural gas will be more expensive but heating oil will be non-existant. Either way a lot of people are going to be going without heat this winter. This is why I think we will see $100 oil by late fall.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:23 pm 
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Quote:
Natural gas will be more expensive but heating oil will be non-existant.


I think it could be the opposite, at least in the northeast. Oil is pretty easily shipped, so if you pay enough, you can get it. Natural gas...we've already come close to running out in the northeast. If there's not enough pressure in the pipeline to keep it moving, you're out of luck.


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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:21 pm 
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Fission
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Location: Vancouver Island
67.69 and moving up in afterhours
We could hit 68 today.

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 Post subject: Re: Another record
New postPosted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:28 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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Location: Minneapolis, USA
pffth Katarina will probably only be a Tropical Storm once it crosses Flawda...
Models:
Image

How is this a threat to oil production anyway?

Quote:
atellite imagery...Doppler radar data from the Bahamas and Miami...
and reconnaissance wind data indicate TD-12 has become much better
organized this morning and has strengthened into Tropical Storm
Katrina. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on an 1153z recon
925 mb flight-level wind report of 48 kt in the northeast quadrant
...Which equals about 36 kt at the surface using a Standard 75
percent reduction factor for that level. This intensity is also
supported by a consensus intensity estimate of t2.5/35 kt from all
three satellite agencies. The next aircraft is expected to
investigate Katrina this afternoon.


The initial motion estimate is 330/07. Katrina's center may be
developing a little more to the north of the previous fixes in
response to the bursts of deep convection that have been developing
in the northeast quadrant of the larger circulation envelope.
However...radar data suggests that small vortices or mesocyclones
are being generated within the convective bursts...and then
propagating westward along the north side of larger circulation.
The initial position remains roughly in the geometric center of all
the small vortices noted in radar data. Overall...recon data
indicate the wind field continues to consolidate. The forecast
track remains basically unchanged form the previous advisories. The
subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina that currently extends
east-west along 30-31n latitude is expected to slowly build
eastward...causing the cyclone to turn more westward after 24 hours
and cross the southern Florida Peninsula. After emerging over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours...the western portion of the
ridge is forecast to weaken and allow Katrina to move
northwestward.

Katrina has developed a symmetrical upper-level outflow pattern
within a relatively weak shear environment. Although the wind field
is currently elongated east-west...steady intensification seems
reasonable at this time...especially as an upper-level low just
southwest of the system moves away to the west. Katrina is expected
to become a hurricane prior to landfall...which is similar to the
SHIPS and GFDL models.


Forecaster Stewart




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 24/1500z 24.7n 76.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 25/0000z 25.4n 77.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 25/1200z 25.9n 78.4w 45 kt
36hr VT 26/0000z 26.0n 79.2w 55 kt
48hr VT 26/1200z 26.1n 80.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 27/1200z 26.3n 82.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 28/1200z 27.0n 84.5w 55 kt
120hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 86.0w 65 kt


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