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Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 963 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ... 65  Next
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New postPosted: Fri May 06, 2005 9:12 pm 
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nth wrote:
How many people here will not go on vacation because of high gas prices?


You must be kidding, we are flying across country on vacation this year because I beleive we won't be able to afford to do so next year, and driving 2000 miles to reach a vacation destination is too exhausting for a 1 week vacation.

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New postPosted: Sat May 07, 2005 1:25 pm 
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Tanada wrote:
nth wrote:
How many people here will not go on vacation because of high gas prices?


You must be kidding, we are flying across country on vacation this year because I beleive we won't be able to afford to do so next year, and driving 2000 miles to reach a vacation destination is too exhausting for a 1 week vacation.


Agree. Enjoy this lifestyle while you still can. It won't be around much longer.


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New postPosted: Sun May 08, 2005 5:08 am 
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nth wrote:
frankthetank wrote:
One thing to add here is that the weather for the last 2 weeks over much of the POPULATED areas of the US has been cold and crappy. That weather is changing as we speak, with 60's and 70's spreading from the plains towards the east coast. The boating season will start up soon also...boats have sold the hot cakes the last few years and they tend to get horrible gas mileage (a prop isn't very efficient).

time will tell.


Intereesting tidbit. Been focusing so much on cars, that I forgot about summertime recreational vehicles.

I was looking at refined petroleum consumption and I saw that jet fuel consumption is going up and despite US airlines losing record millions of dollars- they are planning more flights than ever instead of cutting back. I just heard that direct flights are making a comeback. that means more fuel consumption.

It looks like Prices will stabilize and won't run up to 60, unless catastrophe strikes oil infrastructure.

The amount of oil in storage is plenty enough for refineries in the US.
We are seeing a real slowdown in Europe. Anyone know where to get European oil data?


Yeah the "last cold snap" of the spring just ended and everyone around here is polishing his boat. Well those who can afford boats anyhow :)

Right now on Mother's Day gasoline stockpiles are high, but I would lay odds that in 2-3 weeks those stockpiles are going to drop a lot as everyone does there spring running around getting ready for boating season, not to mention all the lawn mowers that are now burning a gallon a week which have sat idle for the last 5 months. I know I used my mower for the first time this year on Wednesday, but a lot of my neighbors started 2 weeks ago when we had that surprise hot weekend in April.

Has anyone ever figured out how many gallons of gas lawn equipment in the USA consumes? I can tell you that professional lawn mowers consume about a gallon every hour they run and the older models were even less efficient.

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New postPosted: Mon May 09, 2005 1:44 pm 
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$53.28, and rising. No shortage, just speculation.

I've been following the steadily advancing major US stock market indices for the last couple of weeks now, and I've established for myself that clearly the oil price is now fully in the domain of the speculators.

The indices have advanced for no economic reason whatsoever in that time, with pretty much zero solid economic news to support any rise (more to the contrary in fact), and the oil price has risen too along with it. So this is the volatility that is so often talked about these days? It's madness! All of it! Pure and simple!

Damn, and I thought I could make some money based on rational principles! Well, there's a few monthly salaries I kissed goodbye right there! :x


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 4:43 am 
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Nano wrote:
$53.28, and rising. No shortage, just speculation.

I've been following the steadily advancing major US stock market indices for the last couple of weeks now, and I've established for myself that clearly the oil price is now fully in the domain of the speculators.

The indices have advanced for no economic reason whatsoever in that time, with pretty much zero solid economic news to support any rise (more to the contrary in fact), and the oil price has risen too along with it. So this is the volatility that is so often talked about these days? It's madness! All of it! Pure and simple!

Damn, and I thought I could make some money based on rational principles! Well, there's a few monthly salaries I kissed goodbye right there! :x


I have never had the money to invest but I have looked at a lot of trends over the years and one thing seems clear to me. The people who make the most money are the contrarians, they see how the herd members of the market are traveling and they go against the current. If you sell when the mass are buying you get better prices for your sales, vice versa if you but when the mass is selling you get better prices then too.

If you can't deal with doing different than the mass stay out of the markets or you will loose your shirt, and probably everything else too ;)

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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 8:43 am 
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Yikes, that sure was a sudden jump. Why the sudden burst of "speculation"?


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 9:10 am 
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Tanada,

Boats, lawn mowers all use diesel.

Gasoline stocks are unrelated to diesel.

Refineries get to choose what type to refine, but most want to max out on gasoline if possible.

So boat and other diesel demand won't affect gasoline prices, but will affect crude prices.


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 9:15 am 
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OPEC members - ministers from Algeria and Qatar came out and said that Q4 will be a challenge.

Meaning they don't see demand dropping for Q4.

Speculators have been betting Q4 demands to be close 90mbpd. Last year, it was 87mbpd and OPEC had to max out and China had to dip into reserves. World commercial reserves drop to yearly lows.

So according to some analysts, OPEC failed to deliver for '04 Q4, so they have a hard time seeing OPEC delivering in '05.

Also, hurricane season? Strikes? Political unstable governments?
So many reasons to go wrong... chances are at least one of these will strike.


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 9:21 am 
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Nano,

No one says there is not enough oil right now.
Demand is not outstripping supplies right now. Everyone agrees that it will be a challenge to meet Q3 and Q4 oil and gasoline demands.

Looking at supply data now doesn't mean much.
You need to look at demand data. Has consumption drop?
Everyone is looking at consumption for these weekly and monthly reports. They are not looking at how much is in stock like the media reports. I don't know media keep saying stocks are rising. Who cares how much you have in stock? Speculators care how much you are using per week and estimating how much of an increase we will see in consumption based on seasonality.


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 9:26 am 
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Nano wrote:
$53.28, and rising. No shortage, just speculation.

I've been following the steadily advancing major US stock market indices for the last couple of weeks now, and I've established for myself that clearly the oil price is now fully in the domain of the speculators.

The indices have advanced for no economic reason whatsoever in that time, with pretty much zero solid economic news to support any rise (more to the contrary in fact), and the oil price has risen too along with it. So this is the volatility that is so often talked about these days? It's madness! All of it! Pure and simple!

Damn, and I thought I could make some money based on rational principles! Well, there's a few monthly salaries I kissed goodbye right there! :x


it's not just speculation:

Quote:
New York (Platts)--10May2005

June crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange opened 22 cts higher at $52.25/bbl Tuesday as supply concerns began to cause pricing shifts in the term structure of the price curve. After having settled at a low of minus $1.77/bbl May 4, the June/July spread traded in to minus $1.22/bbl early Tuesday, partially a function of the "roll" - - moving positions from the active front month contract to the second contract - - as well as a potential tapering off of crude imports as result of the trans-Atlantic arbitrage having closed over the last several weeks. The potential drop-off in crude imports as runs seasonally rise would be an omen that stocks would stop building. The upswing in NYMEX crude prices also caused the WTI/Brent spread to swing back to what would be considered normal, with the WTI at a premium to Brent. June unleaded gasoline opened 77 points higher at $1.4950/gal and June heating oil opened 48 points higher at $1.4450/gal.


•Brent crude oil futures on London's International Petroleum Exchange gained ground on Tuesday, following the trend set late Monday in New York where a bout of short-covering pushed up WTI contracts. At 1015GMT the June front month contract traded at $51.54/bbl, up 25 cts. "There is plenty of oil around but getting it refined is the problem," commented one trader in response to remarks by by Qatari oil minister Abdullah al-Attiyah that oil supply was adequate to meet demand.

•Several OPEC ministers, including Saudi Arabia's have said the problem was not with crude oil supply but with refined products given the shortage of refining capacity in consuming nations. Some market sources say there is concern that there will be an insufficient build in US gasoline stocks ahead of the driving season, which typically marks the beginning of peak demand.

•"Anything less than 1-mil bbl would give cause for concern," commented a London based trader as the market awaited the lastest weekly inventory data to be published in the US Wednesday.


src:platts


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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 10:23 am 
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nth wrote:
Tanada,

Boats, lawn mowers all use diesel.

Gasoline stocks are unrelated to diesel.

Refineries get to choose what type to refine, but most want to max out on gasoline if possible.

So boat and other diesel demand won't affect gasoline prices, but will affect crude prices.


I don't know where you are located, but here in Michigan 90% of lawn equipment and at least 50% of pleasure boats are gasoline fueled. Most people who buy small boats are happy with a simple gas outboard to run out on the lake for a day of fishing, diesels go in the big yatchts and ocean going boats but those vessels operate for most of the year around, not just seasonally.

I checked myself yesterday our industrial lawn mowers use 6 litre's of fuel per hour of operation <gasoline in our case> to power a 25 HP engine. We operate for an average of 30 operating hours per week. We are not at all unusual in that reguard when it comes to groundskeeping.

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New postPosted: Tue May 10, 2005 11:00 am 
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Tanada wrote:
I don't know where you are located, but here in Michigan 90% of lawn equipment and at least 50% of pleasure boats are gasoline fueled. Most people who buy small boats are happy with a simple gas outboard to run out on the lake for a day of fishing, diesels go in the big yatchts and ocean going boats but those vessels operate for most of the year around, not just seasonally.

I checked myself yesterday our industrial lawn mowers use 6 litre's of fuel per hour of operation <gasoline in our case> to power a 25 HP engine. We operate for an average of 30 operating hours per week. We are not at all unusual in that reguard when it comes to groundskeeping.


I stand corrected.
You are right. Mostly gasoline powered.


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New postPosted: Fri May 13, 2005 10:11 am 
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We are down to $47.80 and dropping. What is happening? Not to mention this may convince people the price spike was just a bunch of hooey anyway.


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New postPosted: Fri May 13, 2005 10:29 am 
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Weird to see prices going down while demand going up. Economy is so crazy that we could see a 25$ barrel during several days meaning "Hey, we had told you ! it's just speculation!"


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New postPosted: Fri May 13, 2005 10:50 am 
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tmazanec1 wrote:
We are down to $47.80 and dropping. What is happening? Not to mention this may convince people the price spike was just a bunch of hooey anyway.

inventories are up, OPEC is producing more, the world economy is softening, it's profit taking time for speculators.

Any glitch in the news could send the price back up again, if the price drop too much OPEC may not like it.


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