The Peak Oil Perfect Storm

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:52 am

In my initial post I cited water shortages as a component of my Perfect Storm. Water is a precious commodity, whether for drinking or cooling nuclear power plants.

Water Sector Rides A Wave of Strong Demand

Quote:

Investors are flocking to almost any kind of company with a connection to water. Shares of Pico Holdings Inc., which owns real estate in the Southwest, have soared more than 50% in the past year, thanks to growing demand for the vast amount of water, and rights to use water, the company holds in fast-growing Arizona and Nevada. Dallas billionaire T. Boone Pickens and other big investors have put big money into buying water assets. Mr. Pickens has been behind an effort to transport underground water from the Texas Panhandle to San Antonio, Dallas and other cities.

"Water will emerge as the next growth commodity," says John Romero,
who runs Aptus Partners LP, a Birmingham, Ala., hedge fund with about $50 million of assets that has been buying up water-related stocks, including Pico, Pentair and Consolidated Water Inc.

Quote:

The World Commission on Water for the 21st Century expects water use to increase 50% during the next 30 years. Only 2% of the world's water is fresh, creating a need for companies to treat seawater and wastewater.

Link

Ludi · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:30 am

Utterly ludicrous. San Antonio has plenty of water if they would just stop wasting it and paving over their aquifer recharge.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:39 am

Ludi wrote:

Utterly ludicrous. San Antonio has plenty of water if they would just stop wasting it and paving over their aquifer recharge.

What's ludicrous? That water is a finite resource?

Ludi · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 9:53 am

No, no, of course not, I meant it's ludicrous they want to transport water from the Panhandle to San Antonio!

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:23 am

Ludi wrote:

No, no, of course not, I meant it's ludicrous they want to transport water from the Panhandle to San Antonio!

Oh, I'm sorry Ludi. I was wondering for a moment. :-D

Yes, doesn't it seem strange that no matter what the resource, people think it is only about supply/demand and meeting it?

Ludi · **Posted:** Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:30 am

It's ok, Monte - you do know me better than that! :-D

Central Texas has one of the wonders of the world, the Edwards Aquifer, an enormous underground series of lakes, with their own fauna even, which constantly refills and purifies itself (or did, before people started dumping toxins all around). That San Antonio should complain about water shortages, or that bringing water from remote areas is even considered, is a testament to the profligacy of our culture.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Sat Apr 30, 2005 9:27 am

One of my points for the Peak Oil Perfect Storm was water depletion. This was written by me in the summer of 1992.

THE COLORADO RIVER
Where it comes from, where it goes.
It's uses, it's abuses, it's history, it's future.

In 1869, Major John Wesley Powell foretold the limits of western water when he wrote, "All the waters of all the arid lands will eventually be taken from their natural channels."

The Colorado River system begins high on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains. Melting snow gathers in swift running streams to start the 1,450 mile journey to the sea. Although, except for an occasional local flood flow, no water has reached the Gulf of California in the last thirty-five years. The upper Colorado-formerly called the Grand River-finds it's origin near Rocky Mountain National Park. The actual headwaters of the Colorado lie in the Wind River Range of Wyoming. There, the Green River hurtles south to meet the upper Colorado in Canyonlands National Park. The San Juan River, which drains southwestern Colorado, joins the flow at Lake Powell. The only other major tributary, the Gila River in Arizona, no longer contributes to the Colorado due to heavy use.

At Lee's Ferry, just below the Glen Canyon Dam on Lake Powell, we find the dividing line between the upper and lower Colorado River basins. From here, the river makes its headlong rush through Grand Canyon National Park into the placid waters of Lake Mead, Lake Mojave, and Lake Havasu. From Lake Havasu, to the Mexican border, water is diverted into canals that snake across the desert to agricultural fields and urban areas. This water is used at least three times before it finds its way into the Salton Sea as agricultural run-off.

Ninety percent of the water diverted from the Colorado River channel is used for agricultural irrigation. The Imperial Valley in California is the single largest user, with most of the land being used to raise alfalfa. This crop is also the most water intensive, requiring 6 acre feet/year as opposed to .5 acre feet/year for lettuce.

The 1922 Colorado River Compact divided the river among the upper basin states: Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico-and those in the lower basin: California, Nevada, and Arizona. On the basis of river flow of the 1920's, each basin was allocated 7.5 million acre feet annually. A 1944 treaty guaranteed an additional 1.5 million acre feet to the country of Mexico. However, the yearly flow of the Colorado was grossly overestimated. The allocations required a yearly average flow of 16.5 million acre feet. Depending upon whom you ask, the river has been flowing at a rate of somewhere between 13.2 MAF to 14.8 MAF since 1930. During the present drought, that figure has dropped to about 9 million acre feet a year. Evaporation from reservoirs removes an additional 2 million acre feet.

Lake Powell reached full pool in June of 1980, seventeen years after the dam was completed. The lake has now retreated to 1971 levels with projections to go much lower. This loss is nearly half of Lake Powell's 27 million acre foot capacity. In 1990, less than 5.5 million acre feet flowed into Lake Powell, not nearly the 8.25 million acre feet that must be released into Lake Mead each year. As a result, Lake Powell is currently 76 feet below full pool. In drought years, the lower basin receives its allocation first, resulting in a shortfall for the upper basin. Even so, Lake Mead has been drawn down 52 feet below full pool.

As long as some states use less than their share, others can siphon off more. But, as populations rise, and the states in both basins complete water projects, the Colorado will be virtually tapped out. If the drought continues, water policy in the Southwest will change dramatically, and consequently, so will our lifestyle.

America has been historically a nation of beef eaters. No other single activity has altered the shape and texture of western lands, than the raising of cattle. Nor does any other activity consume more water. If real reductions in the consumption of water in the West are to be achieved, our production of water intensive crops, like alfalfa and cotton, will have to be severely curtailed. It has been estimated that a 7 percent reduction in agricultural water use would provide a 100 percent increase for urban use. While urban use accounts for only about 6 percent of Colorado River water, nearly 50 percent of that figure goes to water lawns. This too, will have to change. The Colorado River is a finite resource. Farmers and city dwellers cannot possibly both be satisfied.

The West's long tug-of-war over water will soon become the most serious confrontation in over 100 years. Agriculture has been the biggest beneficiary of the Colorado's water because the farmers got there first. Western water law has its roots in the concept that whoever could put the water to beneficial use first, had first rights to it. Cheap, federally subsidized water grows alfalfa, which is fed to beef cattle in the seven states of the Colorado River Basin. These seven states, including those portions of the states lying outside the basin and not receiving Colorado River water, produce only 13 percent of the total value of the nation's beef. The Reclamation Act of 1902 was enacted to help settle the West, not provide a subsidy in perpetuity.

Monte L. Myers
National Park Ranger
Yellowstone National Park

When I wrote the initial thread on Wed Sep 08, 2004, the lake was a little over 9 MAF. Since that time, it has dropped as low as 7.9MAF

08-APR-2005 3555.10 7956023 9835 13986

After historical high rainfall, the lake is still below the Sept numbers. When I wrote this piece the lake was 76 feet below full pool of 3700’. Now it is 143’ below full pool.

20-MAR-2005 3557.01 8097834 9573 6806
http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/rsvrs/ops/crsp_40_gc.html

Remember Liebig's Law: "The least abundant necessity determines the environmental carrying capacity of any given species." If it's not energy, it may soon be water.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:06 pm

A thank you to Leanan for this link. Folks, this is getting serious.

Western drought shrinking Big Muddy

Quote:

The Missouri River, the nation's longest, is struggling in the dry clutches of a multiyear drought. For six years, the river's three giant reservoirs on the northern Plains have dropped slowly and alarmingly, curbing recreation, hydropower generation and commercial navigation downstream. While the drought's effects are not irreversible, river managers say it will take years for the waterway and its many users to recover.

"We're kind of in uncharted territory here," says Rose Hargrave, Missouri River program manager for the Army Corps of Engineers, which operates the river's six dams and the lakes behind them. "Reservoir levels have never been so low. The Plains snow pack is almost non-existent. It's not looking good."

Quote:

•Hydropower. The river's dams normally generate about 10 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, worth about $1.7 billion. In the drought, annual production is off at least one-third. This year's forecast is for just 5.8 billion kilowatt-hours. To make up the difference for its customers, the federal Western Area Power Administration has spent $64 million since October for costlier extra power. It will spend nearly twice that by the end of September. After two rate increases, a third is in the works.

Quote:

In Nebraska, farmers on two Missouri tributaries will be paid not to irrigate up to 100,000 acres of crops for the next 10-15 years in an effort to save water.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/200 ... uddy_x.htm

Schneider · **Posted:** Sat Apr 30, 2005 8:58 pm

Oh oooh..

Seem to me that we are heading for what Duncan told us about shortages

!

Schneider
French-Canadian

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:54 pm

With this latest news, I thought it time to bump up this thread. The storm is brewing.

U.S. August Trade Gap Widens to $59 Bln on Record Oil Imports

Quote:

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened to $59 billion in August as record crude oil prices caused imports to rise, keeping the nation dependent on foreign investors to fund the shortfall.

The gap in goods and services trade was the third-largest on record and followed a $58 billion deficit in July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Both imports and exports were at all-time highs during the month, and the gap with China widened to a record.

Soaring fuel costs and an expanding economy will cause imports to rise faster than exports in coming months, keeping the trade deficit wide, economists said. The price of imported crude oil rose to a record $52.65 a barrel in August, even before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted production last month and sent prices even higher.

Link

U.S. Sept. Import Prices Increase 2.3%; Rise 1.2% Excluding Oil

Quote:

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. posted their biggest gain since 1990 in September, led by rising oil and natural gas prices after two hurricanes struck the U.S. Gulf Coast. Excluding oil, import prices gained 1.2 percent.

Import prices rose 2.3 percent after a 1.2 percent gain in August, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The increase excluding oil was the largest since record-keeping started in January 1989 because of increases in natural gas prices.

Prices for imported oil, natural gas and other raw materials surged after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita slammed into the Gulf Coast, snarling port traffic and shutting down production and refining facilities. The Federal Reserve is warning of quickening inflation, and some companies such as consumer-goods producer Georgia-Pacific Corp. are passing on the additional costs to customers.

Fed Action

Quote:

Fed policy makers meet Nov. 1, and economists expect them to raise their benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, to 4 percent, for a 12th straight time to quell inflation. The Fed raised the rate on Sept. 20 by a quarter point.

Fed officials have stepped up inflation warnings in recent weeks as energy prices surged. Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher warned Oct. 6 that Fed policy makers must prevent an ``inflation virus'' from infecting the economy and that inflation was moving towards the ``upper end of the Fed's tolerance zone.''

Link

holmes · **Joined:** Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 2506

MonteQuest wrote:

no matter what the resource, people think it is only about supply/demand and meeting it?

In the biggest, baddest and most consuming empire in history. Not much talk of peace and powering down is there? Ah history. Brutal history. Bail while u still can I would say.

Armageddon · **Posted:** Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:36 pm

James Howard Kunstler quote:
Quote:
The water situation in Las Vegas is dire. The city has absolutely no capacity left for expansion under any circumstances. What's more, Lake Mead, the impoundment behind Hoover Dam, is down to historically low levels, dropping a foot per week lately, and may soon fall so low that the turbine intakes on Hoover Dam no longer operate, meaning goodbye electric generating capacity. The Colorado River's flow in 2004 was 70 percent below average, and the region was gripped by a years-long drought. Climatologists agree, in fact, that the desert southwest has actually been enjoying two comparatively wet centuries and is now reverting to a drier cycle. Global warming could make it much worse.

============================================

is there any current news on this situation ? i know this was written about a year and a half ago .

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Mon Jan 16, 2006 8:18 pm

armegeddon wrote:

is there any current news on this situation ? i know this was written about a year and a half ago .

From the Bureau of Reclamation:

Quote:

Lake Mead began water year 2005 at elevation 1,125.86 feet (343 meters), with 13.9 maf 9 Modifications to scheduled monthly releases from Lake Powell would be made based on changes in forecast conditions or other relevant factors. November 1, 2005 (17,146 mcm) in storage, which is 54 percent of the conservation capacity of 25.877 maf (31,919 mcm). Lake Mead's elevation increased to elevation 1,147.66 (349 meters) by the end of March 2005. After March 2005, Lake Mead steadily declined and ended the water year at elevation of 1,138.36 feet (347 meters) with 15.219 maf (18,773 mcm) in storage, 59 percent of capacity.

Starting the new water year under 1, 125 forces to the water authority to declare a drought emergency.

Quote:

Under the most probable inflow conditions during water year 2006, Lake Mead will be at its maximum elevation of 1,139.38 feet (347 meters), with 15.327 maf (18,906 mcm) in storage, at the end of February 2006. Lake Mead will decline during the water year to reach its minimum elevation of 1,125.50 feet (343 meters), with 13.901 maf (17,147 mcm) in storage, at the end of September 2006.

The absolute lake protection level is 1,000 feet.

Lake Powell upstream is the one to watch, as Mead gets most of it's water from there.

Quote:

On April 8, 2005, prior to the favorable snowmelt runoff of 2005, reservoir storage at Lake Powell reached a low of 3,555 feet (145 feet from full pool). The reservoir has declined to 33 percent of capacity, and had not been that low since 1969. The current elevation of Lake Powell is 3,597.9 feet (102.1 feet from full pool). Current storage is 11.5 million acre-feet (47 percent of live capacity).

Thus far in water year 2006 (which began on October 1, 2005) inflow to Lake Powell has been close to average.

Lake Powell current conditions

Armageddon · **Posted:** Mon Jan 16, 2006 9:30 pm

please translate this info to me in laymans terms. in other words, what os your take on this situation ? thanks monte, you are very insightful and an asset to this site and the PO situation.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Mon Jan 16, 2006 11:29 pm

armegeddon wrote:

please translate this info to me in laymans terms. in other words, what os your take on this situation ? thanks monte, you are very insightful and an asset to this site and the PO situation.

We use more water each year than comes down the river in a regular snowpack year. We are dependent upon abnormal snowfall to keep the lake levels up.

Worse case?

Quote:

Operators of Navajo Generating Station near Page want to drill five 54-inch-diameter tunnels deep into the sandstone walls of Lake Powell before declining water levels at the drought-stricken reservoir force the power plant to shut down.

The plant is in no immediate danger, but its loss would put a dent in the regional power supply, rob the Central Arizona Project of inexpensive electricity needed to keep water flowing to Phoenix and Tucson and cost the local economy hundreds of millions of dollars.

Effects of a shutdown could be magnified on the power grid because if water levels dropped low enough to disable Navajo, the hydroelectric plant at the base of Glen Canyon Dam would also be unusable. Together, the two plants can generate electricity for millions of people in Arizona, Nevada and California.

Navajo is the coal-fired plant at Page.

Quote:

Right now, the tunnels sit at 3,470 feet above sea level. That's 230 feet below the lake's surface when it's full but only 100 feet below the lake's current level. Some projections say the lake level wouldn't drop below the tunnels until 2009, but government hydrologists say if severe drought persists, the reservoir could fall that low as early as 2006.

Currently, they are 127 feet for the coal plant and 107 feet for the dam.

The water surface elevation of Lake Powell is likely to decrease until late March or early April 2006 when anticipated snowmelt runoff will cause the water surface level to increase once more. Basinwide snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin is currently 109 percent of average (as of January 4, 2006).

The current projection the water surface elevation at Lake Powell on April 1, 2006, is about 3,592 feet, 7 feet lower than now, although it will go much lower until the snowmelt.

But that projection level is only possible because of the decline in releases to Lake Mead.

Link

The Peak Oil Perfect Storm

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