THE M. King Hubbert Thread (merged)

steam_cannon · **Posted:** Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:26 am

Alcassin wrote:

I don't use peakoil wiki, maybe there aren't so many peakoilwiki users

No reason to get your panties in a bunch. Most new users aren't
familiar with the links on the front page of this website, but they keep
posting anyway...

FreddyH · **Posted:** Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:53 pm

Coolman wrote:

In fact you should thank God that it did not peak in 1995, it would have been even worse than it's going to be now.

Had his production profile come to fruition, Hubbert's forecast for 2008 was 63-mbd amid a 3.75% Decline Rate. His projected Peak of 111-mbd includes only Regular Conventional Oil, proc-gains & NGL.

Being awash in oil, it will never be known to what degree this would have retarded the unconventionals. That is, the 63-mbd does not include the tar sands, heavies, deep ocean, polar, bio, kerogen, ctl, gtl or synthetics that are abundant today and make up 14-mbd of All Liquids. If they were developed as aggressively, today's flow would be 77-mbd today.

All this speculation assumes that Hubbert's 111-mbd Peak would have been greeted by a similar call in Demand. I am skeptical that this challenge could have been met.

drgoodword · **Posted:** Fri May 23, 2008 8:41 pm

While this story is not new, and is covered in other sources, it's still an interesting article:

Quote:

Hubbert was invited to give a broad-brush picture of the overall world energy situation, including the state of U.S. energy resources, at the spring meeting of the Southwest Section of the American Petroleum Institute. Driving from Houston, he and his wife went to the Plaza Hotel in San Antonio to drop off 500 copies of his talk for distribution at the meeting. “To my surprise, I found myself surrounded by the petroleum press, wanting to know, was this paper going to be given? I said, ‘Why, certainly.’

“But it was perfectly obvious, there was something going on that I didn’t know about, and I was furious. The press, all the gas journals, various petroleum journals… the oil reporters… In fact, I was so angry that I refused to go back to my hotel… my wife and I had dinner and went to a motion picture, and we didn’t get back to the hotel room until around midnight. And then the next morning, when the meeting was opening, the program consisted of the Mayor of San Antonio giving an address of welcome. I was the next speaker, when I got a signal calling me off the platform,” Hubbert recalled in a 1989 interview.

TheDude · **Posted:** Fri May 23, 2008 11:22 pm

Thanks!

Deffeyes wrote of Hubbert being a bit irascible; also how he described his experience teaching as "interesting." Deffeyes asked a student of Hubbert's about the experience: "terrifying."

aahala2 · **Joined:** Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 113

A path to the presentation itself is probably only a click or two
away, but here's a direct link:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/1956/1956.pdf

Only portions of the ideas were groundbreaking; Hubbert had
written before, and some others, about some of the ideas.
The paper has footnotes, which you might be able to find
to determine what was new and what wasn't.

killJOY · **Posted:** Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:31 pm

The new figures say it all:

Don't we need a new hook?

Hubbert's peak is old, and probably inaccurate.

Viva Mesa Hubberto!

Ludi · **Posted:** Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:36 pm

I guess we can hope it's one of those nice big flat wide mesas, and not a butte.

mesa:

butte:

killJOY · **Posted:** Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:37 pm

I used to mispronounce that as a kid, as in "shake your butte."

Shur is a beaut.

truecougarblue · **Joined:** Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 578

I'd use "pico" for peak rather than "mesa", though I agree the chart does look more like a mesa.

Google "pico de orizaba".

Cashmere · **Joined:** Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 1925

I don't know.

I just keep getting this feeling that we're going to, one of these days soon, see a massive drop off. Followed by another. Followed by another.

and then the graph will shift from worrisome to Amityville in 3 months.

I've just got this feeling.

MonteQuest · **Posted:** Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:44 pm

killJOY wrote:

Viva Mesa Hubberto!

That's la meseta de Hubberto. Hubbert's Plateau.

energyhoggin · **Joined:** Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:51 pm **Posts:** 33

linlithgowoil wrote:

i thought the idea of capitalism was that a few people get very rich by inventing stuff/owning means of production. they pay the workers just enough to stop them being unhappy and being non-productive, and are protected from the odd rebellious worker by the police and the courts, who are also made up of the very same workers. divide and conquer?

essentially, though, its about power - not really money. its just like the feudal system that used to exist in europe. a guy at the top, with a few generals below, a few sargeants below that and so on until you get to the majority who are landless peasants.

even those who own their own homes, but have a mortgage over them, are actually landless in my opinion. you do not truly own your own home/land until you own it without debt, and i believe that very few people will ever get to this point in future. they'll either die in debt or be re-possessed, and we'll be back to just a few people (or corporations) owning land, and renting it to the general masses.

wow...i couldnt have said it better, now we just need devastating plague of some sort to clean the slate

Pops · **Posted:** Sun Sep 27, 2009 5:50 am

drgoodword wrote:

While this story is not new, and is covered in other sources, it's still an interesting article:

Thanks for that, great article.

THE M. King Hubbert Thread (merged)

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