THE M. King Hubbert Thread (merged)

Pops · **Posted:** Mon Jun 06, 2005 11:34 am

Really the only similarities one needs to see between Hubert’s prediction for the US and a possible global peak is this:

US oil discoveries peaked in the 30’s and 40’s regardless of every effort and approximately 40 years later production peaked.

And

World discoveries peaked in the 60’s and 70’s regardless of every effort and now it’s about 40 years later.

I’m no expert but it seems fairly obvious even to my little mind that you can’t pump what you can’t find.

ubercrap · **Joined:** Wed Apr 27, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 367

FatherOfTwo wrote:

ubercrap wrote:

Heck, I was just reading about some of this in another post, and I had momentarily forgotten the huge amounts of natural gas needed for processing of the tar sands.

You are right on the extraction rate, and most likely will be proved wrong on the natural gas issue.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic6745.html

Ah, I see, thanks for correcting me- but I guess I wasn't the only one with outdated info! :-D

rowante · **Posted:** Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:14 pm

I'm busy preparing a talk on peak oil for a cross-bencher state parliament briefing here in Oz and I need to locate a paper I once read on the M. K. Hubbert story.

I just searched thru all the obvious sites on google! doh! I can't remember if it was a PDF or a site page but it had Hubbert's original graphs... I remember it going into detail about how much oil one square on the grid represented etc.

The article had a very detailed description of Hubbert's actual presentation, the reaction of the industry at the time... it had great graphs comparing the varying estimates of URR showing the vast optimism of the USGS.

Any ideas, anybody?

Antimatter · **Posted:** Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:18 pm

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

Some papers by Hubbert are archived there.

Reading again though it sounds like you're not looking for a paper by Hubbert. Perhaps Bartlett?

aldente · **Joined:** Fri Aug 20, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1428

To present Peak Oil theory in the late 50's and 60's must have been an insane endeavour. Think of the mindset of that time. Look at the architecture and the general outlook onto the world. To throw in such a downer as the underlaying message of PO implicates- WOW!
This fellow was way ahead of his time.

savethehumans · **Joined:** Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1532

Deffeyes was Hubbert's protege. Maybe HE knows something? Anyone know how this guy could get ahold of him?

tita · **Joined:** Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 22

Maybe a paper from Laherre presented at the last ASPO conference in Lisbon

ttp://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom ... errere.pdf

peaknik · **Joined:** Thu Feb 17, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 20

This is what you are looking for:

Our Petroleum Predicament

Originally a special editorial feature by GEORGE PAZIK Editor & Publisher, Fishing Facts, November 1976.

Very interesting read!

2007 · **Joined:** Mon Aug 23, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 137

The website 'oilcrisis' also has some links to Hubbert papers.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/hubbert/

WebHubbleTelescope · **Joined:** Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 911

Transcribed article from mid-70's on Hubbert:
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... ament.html

rowante · **Posted:** Sun Jun 19, 2005 4:45 pm

Thanks, peaknik and WHT that was it!

rowante · **Posted:** Sun Jun 19, 2005 4:52 pm

It really blows my mind that that article was published the year I was born.

Web Hubble Telescope, did you get in contact with the author, is he still around?

WebHubbleTelescope · **Joined:** Thu Jul 08, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 911

rowante wrote:

It really blows my mind that that article was published the year I was born.

Web Hubble Telescope, did you get in contact with the author, is he still around?

As a matter of fact, I did have a short correspondence over a year ago with a fellow who posted to an outdoor sports bulletin board. I told him to pass on how much I appreciated Mr. Pazik's work and advocacy.

Quote:

Name: Denny Payton
E-Mail:
Date/Time: 3/30/2004 1:06 PM
Message:

When George Pazik’s name came up recently, a couple fellows shared their appreciation for him. I had the opportunity to meet him over the phone yesterday, and was saddened to discover a weak 83-year-old man who was unable to put into words, everything he wanted to say. He’s had a long struggle with medical problems, and spent four years in a nursing home, I think just getting out recently. He said there’d been a period of time when he couldn’t walk, but that he can now, with the assistance of a walker. When I told him he was the one who introduced me to Buck Perry by an article in Fishing Facts, I could see that it really encouraged him.

Anyways, I have his mailing address, so if anyone would like to send him a note of encouragement or appreciation, please email me n9jxy@earthlink.net and I’ll give it to you. I don’t think I should post it here. He could sure use it.

Thanks,

Denny Payton
Auburn, IN

I also corresponded with Prof. Al Bartlett at U. of Colorado and he said he remembers talking with Mr. Pazik very fondly.

I don't know what Mr. Pazik's current health status is but I wish him very well.

http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2004/0 ... facts.html

chrispi · **Joined:** Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 80

I have found that using the Hubbert distribution to find the future price of oil yields three possibilities, if both human demand and oil supply follow Hubbert's distribution:

The rate of population growth is equal to the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows an S shaped curve bounded above and below by finite limits, with the inflection point right around Peak Oil.
The rate of population growth is greater than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows a bell curve, getting ever more expensive until after Peak Oil, then getting cheaper again.
The rate of population growth is less than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil will fall exponentially until we reach Peak Oil, whereupon the price will rise exponentially.

I used the Mathematica program and its statistical packages. What do you think?

EnergySpin · **Joined:** Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 2365

chrispi wrote:

I have found that using the Hubbert distribution to find the future price of oil yields three possibilities, if both human demand and oil supply follow Hubbert's distribution:

The rate of population growth is equal to the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows an S shaped curve bounded above and below by finite limits, with the inflection point right around Peak Oil.
The rate of population growth is greater than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil follows a bell curve, getting ever more expensive until after Peak Oil, then getting cheaper again.
The rate of population growth is less than the rate of oil extraction. Then the price of oil will fall exponentially until we reach Peak Oil, whereupon the price will rise exponentially.

I used the Mathematica program and its statistical packages. What do you think?

First of all you used the ONLY reliable piece of mathematical software on this planet.
The logistic curve is a well known population modeling tool.
If you search the pop bio literature you will see that it does not cupture the complexity of human population modelling (in particular the negaitve term might be realistic). And the relation between oil and population is really complex ... but then again I'm a moderate

THE M. King Hubbert Thread (merged)

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