The crash course: Chapter 17a: Peak Oil

Concerned · **Joined:** Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1608

Fantastic series, this one really joins the dots. It covers a lot of ground. Is in depth without excessive complexity.

A great starter to start your own investigation of many things from fractional reserve banking to energy depletion.

Really really good stuff.

BigTex · **Posted:** Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:37 pm

New chapter is up!

Check it out.

Good stuff.

VMarcHart · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 5:34 am

BigTex wrote:

New chapter is up!

Check it out.

[s]Good stuff[/s].

Make that De Luxe.

BigTex · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 7:42 am

The fellow who put this presentation together--Chris Martenson--has really done a tremendous public service.

He puts all the pieces together in an amazingly concise and understandable manner.

He said that he had put something like 125 hours of work into the latest chapter alone. It shows.

catbox · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 8:24 am

BigTex wrote:

The fellow who put this presentation together--Chris Martenson--has really done a tremendous public service.

He puts all the pieces together in an amazingly concise and understandable manner.

He said that he had put something like 125 hours of work into the latest chapter alone. It shows.

So true! I'm sending the link on to others.

cb

Iaato · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 10:20 am

So who is Chris Martenson? His Chapter 18 does a great job of linking the environment, energy, and the economy (the three Es). He perfectly frames the ideas that Odum put together in Environment, Power, and Society in 1971. But he summarizes the whole thing in 16 minutes, which is an amazing feat.

BigTex · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 10:23 am

He's a professor somewhere who took an interest in this topic.

That's all I know.

He reminds me of Heinberg a little.

Iaato · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 10:51 am

Thanks, Tex. Gotta' love that Google. Here he is, another Peak Oil dropout. Sound familiar?

Quote:

"Before: I am a 40-year-old professional who has worked his way up to Vice President of a large, international Fortune 300 company and is living in a waterfront, 5 bathroom house in Mystic, CT, which is mostly paid off. My three young children are either in or about to enter public school, and my portfolio of investments is being managed by a broker at a large institution. I do not really know any of my neighbors, and many of my local connections are superficial at best.

After: I am a 45-year-old who has willingly terminated his former high-paying, high-status position because it seemed like an unnecessary diversion from the real tasks at hand. My children are now homeschooled, and the big house in Mystic was sold in July of 2003 in preference for a 1.5 bathroom rental in rural western Massachusetts. In 2002, I discovered that my broker was unable to navigate a bear market and I’ve been managing our investments ever since. Since that time my portfolio has gained 166%, which works out to a compounded yearly gain of 27.8% for five years running (whereas my broker, by keeping me in the usual assortment of stocks, would have scored me a 38% return, or 8.39%/yr). I grow a garden every year; preserve food; and know how to brew beer & wine, raise chickens, and slaughter sheep. I’ve carefully examined each support system (food, energy, security, etc) and for each of them I've figured out either a means of being more self-sufficient or how to do without. But, most importantly, I now know that the most important descriptor of wealth is not my dollar holdings, but the depth and richness of my local community."

http://development.theendofmoney.com/about

BigTex · **Posted:** Sat Sep 13, 2008 12:24 pm

I wonder if he is a member here. I'm sure he reads the site.

If you read this Chris, you da man.

kpeavey · **Joined:** Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1599

There is a high degree of probability that I will in fact, indeed, verifiably and unequivocally pee my pants when the next chapter comes out.

The stuff he puts out is doomer porn AMBROSIA. It makes me curse like a well digger. Other parts of me itch for no reason. I think I lost consciousness for a while on #18. I've gutted my living room, nothing left but an alter, some candles, a couple of flowing curtains, the walls and ceiling are covered with newspaper clippings, chicken parts are littered about, I think there might be something wrong with me, but I can't be sure.

If I had the means I would offer a large reward to anyone who could offer undeniable, empirical, and duplicatable evidence to refute his offered theories and projections. I do not believe it can be done without resorting to new math. The video series does not just hit the nail on the head, he SLAMS it home. For now I'll offer a 20 pound sack of rice, and I'll pay the postage-overnight, to anyone who can meet the above criteria. This reward offer is valid unless and until the guy changes his work according to his own disclaimer. Still, he is holding back. Human population dieoff is a subject which needs to be addressed. If he can present that problem in as clear a manner as the 3 Es, he should be nominated for the Nobel in literature (tweak the rules). This is work on a grand scale.

RedStateGreen · **Posted:** Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:27 pm

Chapter 19 is up.

threadbear · **Joined:** Sat Jan 22, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 7917

Interesting article:

I was for several years director of compliance and market supervision at the International Petroleum Exchange (which is now ICE Futures Europe) -
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It is estimated that in total, some $260 billion was recently invested in oil markets one way and another, and this pool of funds was superimposed as an inverted pyramid of risk on this relatively tiny base of physical crude oil.
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I pointed out that current levels of gearing and risk, and the concentration of risk in single points of failure, together mean that the only difference between "economic terrorists" and proprietary traders such as hedge funds is motive. The former would destroy a market deliberately: the latter by accident

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 9Dj02.html

eastbay · **Posted:** Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:41 pm

In an early chapter (don't want to go through them to see which) he points out that the previous trillion dollars in government debt was added in only four months.

Since that section was added, I believe that record has been eclipsed by the most recently added trillion, which appears to have been added this week.

I strongly suspect the next trillion will occur in a bit more than a week, but far less than four months.

Trillions in debt are getting created faster and faster all the time. It won't be too long before they're occurring daily!

This video series is MANDATORY VIEWING!

RedStateGreen · **Posted:** Sat Sep 20, 2008 6:27 pm

Shannymara wrote:

Sigh. After reading this page of this thread, I guess I have *another* thing to add to my queue.

Doomer porn ambrosia? Pants peeing? In particular, the list of people who are into this thing has me curious.

Yay time suck!

I'd move this up near the top of the queue. Certainly more worthwhile than most stuff online.

AgentR · **Posted:** Sat Sep 20, 2008 6:54 pm

Just finished watching it and did have a few critiques...

Early in the series, he discusses money supply, compounding, and exponential functions; and makes a point that money supply is ruled by these same exponential functions. I feel this is misleading in that while past data does fit an exponential curve; future performance is dictictated STRICTLY by choices made by people who can arbitrarily shut it down, or create a positive discontinuity by a mass dump of hard currency directly to the system.

Next, an assumption that if a choice between prosperity and growth is to be made; the unanimous choice is/shoudlbe prosperity; but I think that is also inaccurate. Some would choose growth even at the expense of prosperity.

Late in the series he discusses EROEI principles; beginning with an absolute example (income vs tax); but then shifts to a ratio based discussion. This looks good on a graph of course, but fudges the reality that if you can find a big enough pool of X, wasting 98% of it to get 2% gain, can give you an absolutely huge amount of X to be spent.

Other than that though, its well worth listening to; and I'm somone who will almost never watch a youtube or anything else 3rd party posted here.

The crash course: Chapter 17a: Peak Oil

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