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 Post subject: Peak oil From the Farm
New postPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:04 pm 
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Okay, I just finished posting my husband's answers to some questions. Now I will attempt to answer a few.

"Shot Down At Every Turn". What a nightmare it has been. My husband and I attend a Democratic club. I believe it is Howard Dean's old group. We just enjoy the company of the folks. I invited them all to my home to see "End of Suburbia", and cooked a big meal. (bribery). I was hoping to gain support to help spread the showing of the film, and increase awareness of peak oil. The head of the group went ballistic over the film. He said that I was promoting nuclear energy by showing the film. So, I went and did a ton of research on the film. I learned who sponsored it; Postcarbon.org. I learned about the leader of that group; Julian Darley. I learned that Julian Darley is vehemently anti-nuclear. I returned to the club with this information. Then the leader learned that Matthew Simmons once worked for Dick Cheney. that ended that. The sad part is that we may have to rely on nuclear energy for a while. That doesn't mean you throw the baby out with the bathwater. I was frustrated that my fellow Democrats would take such a narrow view to the film just because Matthew Simmons was involved. As far as I am concerned, if Matthew Simmons says that we are in trouble, then we are in trouble.

Last fall I took the film to my local library in Fulton, Missouri. I asked if the film could be put on their calendar of events. they just kept blowing me off. they asked me to find a counterpoint film. I could not find a counterpoint film, but I did find several authors who have published papers that disagree with the film. I never received a reply. So, I took the film to the larger library in Columbia, Missouri. (A university town.) In December, the events coordinator told me that she might be able to squeeze the film in by February, then she said March, then April. Finally, I physically took the film to her for her to view privately. She took one look at the cover and the title, and said that she didn't have time, and would need to keep the film for at least a month. Then she offhandedly said that she could possibly get the film on the calendar some time in 2006. I gave up.

I recently ordered the'End of Suburbia" community action pack. I plan on selling the five copies that are full jackets, and will use the rest to just spread the word as much as I can. My frustration just makes me want to slap somebody.

I do volunteer work at the food bank in a small town here in Mid-Mo. One person who came for food started talking out the oil situation. This person said that when Bush was no longer president all of our oil problems would be cured. (I am not making this up). The person said that Bush owned most of the oil wells in Texas, and he could not pump them while he was president. it was a conflict of interest. As soon as he left office, he could start pumping oil again and everything would get better. This doofus made Bush, who is a doofus, into a hero by default. By the way, I have learned not to voice my opinion in such conversations. I learn a lot more by nodding my head, being nice, and asking lots of question. People love to answer questions posed in such a manner.

SUSTAINABLE FARMING: Please listen to the following sentence carefully. With sustainable farming, a huge percentage of mankind will die of starvation!!. Productivity will drop by about 75 to 90 percent. Bushels per acre will fall to nothing. You would even have a difficult time feeding yourself. I raise an organic vegetable garden. I can't raise enough food to feed my husband and I. I do use less water. I use a lot of mulch. I bottom water, etc. This year it did not matter. The drought was the worst since 1980. My garden is a lost cause. I do not understand what you mean by naturally replenishing. Please elaborate.
Our profit margin over the last 5 years is laughable. As I said in the former post, we really do not make what you could call a profit from the cow/calf operation. The cattle pay for themselves. That's about it. Some years we make enough to buy a newer piece of equipment, or do an upgrade. Most farm money goes back into farming. Housekeeping comes from his off farm job. The farm is paid for. If the farm were not paid for, and we could not utilize a peteroleum based agriculture sytem, we would lose the farm. As it is, there may come a day when we can't even afford taxes ($1,800.00 per year. Comes out of gross profit) Do the math!

SMALL FARM FRIENDLY!! Depends on who you talk to and where you are talking about. Southern Missouri, The Ozarks is not good farm country. Most of that country consists of a few inches of topsoil over bare rock. Hills and gullies might look beautiful in a car, but you can't do much farming in "them thar hills". The Northern portion of Missouri is mostly prairie. There is not a lot there to sustain a small farm. Mid-Missouri is your best shot, but land is higher. Most small farms in Missouri are on depleted soil or they are in CRP programs. To make a true living on a Missouri farm it usually takes about 1200 acres.

We do raise grass fed cows. Most cows are grass fed. Grass alone can not sustain a cow/calf operation. Right now we are in a drought situation. Our cows have no grass. There are years when it is necessary to start feeding hay in July. You must have supplements to keep healthy herds. Also, people do not want beef from grass fed animals. People want beef that they can cut with a fork, and that is corn fed beef.

Okay, this is a bit off base here, but I need to get this out. Angus beef is a joke!. Angus is a breed of animal. The animals happen to have black hide. That is the only thing that makes Angus beef different than any other kind of beef. There are just three things that make beef taste good:

The first is what gets fed to the beef. Corn fed beef creates marbling (fat) in the meat and makes it tender.

The 2nd is the sex of the animal. Steers (neutered bulls) make the most tender beef. Bull meat on the other hand is very lean. Bull meat is healthier, but not as tender. (We raise bull meat for our own consumption) To get a steer to eat corn you have to confine it. These animals are not so stupid. they prefer eating grass! Grass fed beef can be raised, but not quickly enough to satisfy a beef hungry nation. it takes twice the amount of time to raise grass fed beef, versus corn fed.

Third, and most peole just don't want to hear this. The tenderness of the beef is determined by how long you leave it hang after the animal has died. The meat needs to age. Assembly line beef producing facilities lose money when they leave beef hang. Two weeks should be the minimum, but that rarely happens any more. rigor mortis sets in when the animal dies and that needs time to dissolve. What pretty much happens, is that the beginning of the decay process needs to set in for the meat to tender up. You know that turkey vulture that patiently waits for that dead possum on the road to stinky up a bit; he's not stupid.

For the gentleman who said he takes hay from his neighbors field. I am curious as to how the hay in the neighbor's field is processed. So far it seems like our petroleum based operation is basically robbing peter to pay paul. When we reduce nitrogen fertilizer we need to rely more heavily on synthetic urea made from natural gas. It's a no win situation.

Chat later

Phebagirl


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New postPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:27 pm 
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Quote:
SUSTAINABLE FARMING: Please listen to the following sentence carefully. With sustainable farming, a huge percentage of mankind will die of starvation!!. Productivity will drop by about 75 to 90 percent. Bushels per acre will fall to nothing. You would even have a difficult time feeding yourself. I raise an organic vegetable garden. I can't raise enough food to feed my husband and I. I do use less water. I use a lot of mulch. I bottom water, etc. This year it did not matter. The drought was the worst since 1980. My garden is a lost cause. I do not understand what you mean by naturally replenishing. Please elaborate


This was my question. By no means am I questioning your knowledge, but are you familiar with Biointensive techniques? As opposed to getting into a detailed explanation, it might be best for you to read about it (if you are not familiar). Ecology Action http://www.growbiointensive.org/ have performed extensive studies on these techniques especially in regards to the above bold quote. It is really a more mini-farming/gardening technique than for large-scale agriculture, but I am curious of your thoughts. Many of the problems you speak of are most vital to Biointensive farming, but their ideas must be done in concert with each other. (Close spacing- a mini-climate, raised beds, double-digging, etc). There is alot to read, but with your experience I'm sure you can work through it quickly. Thank you in advance for offering your insite and opinion on an important subject. :)


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New postPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 3:43 pm 
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Whoa Girl! Put an extra paragraph return in there somewhere! It reads like you drank way too much coffee! {I've been helping her with this MQ} :)

As to the fescue, we aren’t seeing any endophyte so far here; it’s been real dry, but I would like to get a little warm season grass on a couple of plots – especially after this, our first year and very dry. Today I put out hay for the first time.

BTW, we only have 40ac, about 25 fescue, we have only 10 steers now but are going (it seems) toward backgrounding dairy heifers; 3 in hutches and 3 more on the way (in trade for bull calves so make that 12 total).

I contemplated fertilizing our 20 (the hay field / pasture) but decided I would rather frost seed more clover this winter.

Oh and don’t sell the south short, Lawrence has a pretty low stocking rate – under 4 (due to lots of chicken farms), 2nd or 3rd in total beef population, pretty well up there on dairy cows and I think the 1st or second in hay production – I think that’s in here: http://www.houstonherald.com/beef%20report.pdf

Phebagirl wrote:

SMALL FARM FRIENDLY!! To make a true living on a Missouri farm it usually takes about 1200 acres.


I guess it depends on what you mean by ‘true living’. If it means living like the folks in town that don’t need to do chores and can watch cable when they get home from their 8 hours, then you are probably right. If true living means not being tethered to the pump hose, the bosses schedule and what you see on the tube, then I’m not sure I agree.

No offense :) .

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 Post subject: Peak Oil From the Farm
New postPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 6:18 pm 
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Good evening:

First, I am so sorry for rambling on with the previous letter. I just got on a roll. And, I don't even drink coffee.

It’s ironic that you should mention biointensive. My husband and I are planning on attending a class on raised bed biointensive as soon as we get the time to drive to southern Missouri. I guess when I speak of a failure of small farming, I am speaking of the ability to feed massive numbers of people. With a small biointensive farm my husband and I could probably feed ourselves, our kids, and grandkids. Beyond that, I am wary.

Raised bed gardening has downsides; the worst being drainage of water. Double digging is labor intensive. But, then from what I have read, we are heading into a period of history where almost everybody will be involved in labor intensive activity. I have no doubt that we will survive on our farm. I find it highly doubtful that any method of farming will be able to feed 6 billion people. That is my concern.

When I speak of living wage I speak of what most people expect when they think of a living wage. Most people do not have a clue how little a person really needs to survive and be happy. You are so correct. I know people that make less than a thousand dollars a month, and they are happy. We are certainly not wealthy. With me not able to work outside of the home, we have to watch our pennies. For instance, our home has no air conditioning. We get by. We waste nothing. All of my clothing is purchased 2nd hand. I can hunt out a bargain a mile away. I sew, and cook, and can. I made all of our curtains and drapes, and I reupholstered our sofa two years ago. I hang out all of our laundry. We both work very hard to minimize expense, and to save energy.

When the weather turned off cool last week we were in heaven. People who spend all of their time away from nature do not appreciate such joy. They miss the bliss, so to speak. For the majority of the population, living in the country is like being in an episode of Little House on the Prairie. What most people do not realize is that the Little House family suffered great hardship that is not apparent on the show. Both Laura and Mary were stunted. Laura escaped being a dwarf by a mere inch. Malnutrition and disease were common.

Any time you feed people you are at the whims of nature. We have escaped being controlled by nature by sheer volume of production. We were able to do so because of cheap oil. the cheap oil is about to end, and once again we will be at the mercy of the whims of nature. Because of the drought my entire garden is lost. The potatoes are tiny and shriveled. I have not dug the sweet potatoes yet. we watered them, but since we are on a co-op it cost money to water. Besides, water made little difference. Soil temperature reached over 111 degrees fahrenheit last week.

I could not help but wonder what life would be like if my survival depended on that potato crop.

Chat later,

Phebagirl


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New postPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 7:02 pm 
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Quote:
ironic that you should mention biointensive. My husband and I are planning on attending a class on raised bed biointensive as soon as we get the time to drive to southern Missouri.


Let us know what you learn when the time comes. I am studying the techniques now, but don't have the farming background you and your husband do.

Quote:
I guess when I speak of a failure of small farming, I am speaking of the ability to feed massive numbers of people. With a small biointensive farm my husband and I could probably feed ourselves, our kids, and grandkids.


I think mainly when it comes to surviving PO, this will be the only thought of most small communities. As you will find on here, most expect a major dieoff of population, so figuring out how to feed 6 billion people probably won't be needed. It sounds harsh, and it would be a shame, but we just have too many people on a rapidly declining planet. I enjoy hearing more and more people saying how happy they are despite being poor or not having the big fancy home. I too am learning to enjoy my life in more simple terms. And I am a modern gadget guy at heart. (Working on the family slowly but surely.) As I am in constant learning mode right now, my big goal is to get the debts down and buy 30-40 acres.

Quote:
Raised bed gardening has downsides. The worst being drainage of water.
Double digging is labor intensive. But, then from what I have read, we are heading into a period of history where almost everybody will be involved in labor intensive activity.


Tell me when you get to 'sloped beds' and 'bent beds' techniques. I'm really curious how they might help you with the situation you are dealing with now. (drought) Evaporation reduction by close spacing and better upper levels of compost (in good soil) reduce the water needed as well. Also with my (new) understanding, double-digging is alot of work intially, but as you improve the soil, it becomes less necessary allowing a UBar dig in some types of soil. It will be alot of work either way though. Just say the word, I'll come help out. :-D

In any case, it won't be an easy life. You already know this, which gives you an advantage. You sound mentally prepared which is half the ball game not to mention your hands-on experience. Experimenting with Biointensive techniques is what I am going to work on while I have the time (up until PO). Take care.


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 Post subject: Peak Oil From the farm
New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:06 am 
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Good day:

First, an apology. Thank you for putting up with my run on paragraphs, and my rusty English skills. I do apologize. The moderator is working with me to help me improve my skills. I will accept any and all instruction.

I spoke again with my husband about what I am posting here. He said that I should not have said that southern Missouri has poor soil. Secifically, the Ozark region has poor soil. Since the area is all hilly, there is little topsoil. The southeast region of Missouri has some very good farmland. Most river bottom areas are good farm land. I stand corrected.

Another factor that my husband said needs to be figured into the equation is the cost of farm land. We will survive because our farm is paid for. What will the cost of farm land be as things fall apart? If we had to purchase this farm today, we could not make a living and keep the farm, even if we both worked full time. My husband paid $300.00 per acre for the farm in 1971. The same land today would cost almost $2,000.00 per acre. In many areas the rise of subdivisions has sent farm land beyond the scope of any farming scheme.

The class we wish to attend is held in Strafford, Missouri. The man who designed the class is Len Pense. His Ozark farm is mostly clay and rock. He devised a system utilizing concrete blocks to build permanent raised beds. His raised bed system requires no power equipment, no hoeing, and no weeding. Mr. Pense uses only heirloom seeds. He uses an organic gardening system based on companion planting. I still have to talk my very traditional** husband into attending this class, and will let you know if we attend. I will also share what we learn.

Phebagirl

PS. Traditional. Row farming. Lots of chemicals. Tons of hoeing an tilling. Does not understand the concept of mulch. Traditional farming practices are hard to get away from. My husband has spend a life time reading farm journal, and Progressive Farmer. The break from chemicals came in 1991 after I threw a wild-eyed duck fit. (not pretty) He is changing, his heart is in the right place. But, it is difficult after farming in a conventional manner.

PSS. We are experimenting by raising our own beef with no corn!!
I have had to get on my hands and knees to beg for this one.. But, we are raising our steer by just turning him out on grass and letting him grow. This is a work in progress, and I will keep you informed.


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New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:17 am 
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Phebagirl I haven't read this whole thread, but I wonder if you've read Joel Salatin's books, especially "You Can Farm." He runs a successful farm in Virginia, raising beef on grass, also pastured poultry and rabbits. He has many really good ideas about raising animals inexpensively and making good money from them by direct marketing.

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New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:12 am 
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You are right about the land up on the plateau, very gravelly ‘Keno’ soil I think its called- that is where it isn't just plain old ledge :) . We were very fortunate the soil here is relatively deep and has few rocks compared to even a ¼ mile away (my wife may have committed a felony to the top of my head if I hadn’t agreed to buy it because of poor soil - she fell in love with the old house). I believe this was once creek bottom which makes for the deeper soil.

We are from central Ca where it is only a matter of calling the ditch-tender to get irrigation so watching the fescue dry up and the alfalfa stop growing while the weeds take over is tough, the neighbor’s corn is shot. We did have a little sprinkle last week and the lower temps are very nice.

If you have some spoiled hay – especially haylage, try it on the garden. Raised beds are nice for warming early in the year and reducing compaction, but even our corn and melons that we planted in regular old rows got a great benefit from mulching. The main weed here is what locals call spiny pigweed (spiny amaranth) and you better be wearing some tough gloves if you are pulling it by hand. But if you get it mulched early it’s easy to keep the biggest part down. The mulch makes all the difference in water retention and cooling the soil too. We have had a pretty good garden though this was one of the driest springs on record here, 3rd in line after 2 during the dustbowl years in fact.

As far as double digging if you don’t add massive amounts of compost in the trench it’s a waste in my experience. The great thing about mulching is that every year you are making compost right in the row in addition to all the other benefits. If you are planting something for fall go ahead and mulch one row and do the others as usual – that one row should be all it takes to convince anyone it is the way to go.

I use our little (40hp) tractor with a subsioler to open up the tight ground here – though I can’t go too deep. I just pulled it over a couple of rows of squash and ran the tiller over lightly to plant some broccoli and such and the improvement in tilth with just one crop worth of mulch is amazing. I don’t build big raised beds and I kind of scoop out the middle to hold water - so they are basically two big high rows with a little higher than normal furrow between. Not a big deal but it keeps you from walking or driving on them and the close spacing helps with weeds, hot ground and using less water.

I just noticed what Ludi wrote and wanted to mention that I’ve seen several sites of direct-marketed grass fed beef and one also one of my Amish neighbors is raising organic eggs on contract with a distributor – I think he has 1,200 layers.

Anyway have a good day, I need to go water the garden - again. :)

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New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:21 am 
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Pops wrote:

As far as double digging if you don’t add massive amounts of compost in the trench it’s a waste in my experience. The great thing about mulching is that every year you are making compost right in the row in addition to all the other benefits.


I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks so! Even though I promote Biointensive, I don't practice it because I don't like to work that hard. I use a lot of mulch instead and it makes all the difference. Bill Mollison (Permaculture guy) also thinks mulching is superior to making compost.

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New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:31 am 
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Phebagirl rocks!

Glad to have you on the forum, your expertise and open mind are valued.

Urban dorks like me know about concrete. Lotsa it round here. Dunno what it does or where it came from but it's our world.

Need to learn about this brown stuff down under my shoes PDQ.

cheers

Julian :)


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 Post subject: Re: Peak oil From the Farm
New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 12:05 pm 
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Phebagirl wrote:
The Northern portion of Missouri is mostly prairie. There is not a lot there to sustain a small farm.


I have to disagree with you here. My 212 acre farm is 15 miles from the Missouri River and 1/2 mile from the Iowa border. We have about 15 acres that is red clay and rocky, the rest is black Missouri gumbo soil. Very rich and productive. It is slow rolling hills with woodlands.

Shenandoah Iowa, 22 miles north, is the nursery capital of the world. It is where Earl Mays and Henry Fields Nurseries are located. This is where much of the seed crops and starter plants are grown.

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New postPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 12:52 pm 
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Bill Mollison (Permaculture guy) also thinks mulching is superior to making compost.


I have his book on the way. (Designer's Manual) I am interested in reading about this as you both have given me more to think about. Working harder vs working smarter? Hmmm. Please continue the education. :lol:


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Southern Missouri is a gem. :)


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Phebagirl wrote: "we really do not make what you could call a profit from the cow/calf operation. The cattle pay for themselves. That's about it. Some years we make enough to buy a newer piece of equipment, or do an upgrade. Most farm money goes back into farming."

From your description it seems that raising cattle is very hard work! If they do not provide even a partial a living for that effort, it would seem to me that your labor might be better spent doing gardening/truck farming & selling off the cattle???


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 Post subject: Re: Peak oil From the Farm
New postPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:51 pm 
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MonteQuest wrote:
I have to disagree with you here.


:-D :-D :-D

Girl, you ought to know that you can talk bad about someone’s wife and maybe dog but not their dirt!

--

Anyway I wanted to point out on this thread regarding what I think is a common misconception amongst the general population.

Most folks think that if fuel, fertilizer and other costs associated with oil rise to producers then food costs will simply rise as well. But it ain’t that simple.

The reason being, a farmer gets what the market pays, and the comoddity markets works just like the oil market and we are all familiar with those charts. When there is too much supply the price goes down, when there is not enough supply the price goes up.

The pricing process is controlled (or at lest driven) by traders out to make a buck sitting on their Asses – not by the cost of production. Of course the farmer gets a very little slice of the pie and this is an even bigger problem. Just as when you mistreat a well by pumping more than is prudent and it collapses, when a farmer must pay ever increasing costs for inputs but still receives no additional return he too will collapse – into bankruptcy.

As an example, here in this part of Missouri last year the weather was great and there was lots of feed for dairy cattle – so much hay you couldn’t give it away. At the same time milk prices were up because there had been a drought the preceding year plus other factors leading to too little milk production capacity.

Sounds great you say. But this year we’re in another drought, not much feed and way too many milkers from last year.

Of course energy, fertilizer and (due to hedge funds getting interested in grain so they can make a quick buck) feed is up by a third at least.

So dairy producers still have the same fixed costs, increased variable costs due to more milkers and a big increase in energy related costs.

And so the income is down by a third and costs are up by a third. Could your budget withstand that?

It’s great for the middlemen. Even though energy prices are up (they can charge through their energy costs remember) they pay the lowered market rate for the farmers product, which again is way down.

Upshot is, as energy and all related costs rise, the farmer has absolutely no recourse except to raise production. In a world where every incremental increase in production carries a corresponding increase in variable costs – and the unit cost of energy is continually increasing there is only one outcome.

If the more you produce, the more you lose; the only logical response is to quit producing.

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