Oh and he also thinks we are not experiencing a population overshoot and our population growth will be regulated by reduced fertility and contraceptive use.......and that oil will last for centuries to come.......

Link

Hmmmm..thats good because that isthe "normal" way of thinking about things- we need to engage "normal" people.

US Imports from Mexico actually increased in 2006, from 606,751 to 622,408 for the year which is about 1.7 mbpd. EIA

Ron Patterson has some interesting info on Mexico/Cantarell at today's Drumbeat: Subthread.



Oh, poopy.



For the record.

Westexas brings up net declines:



Shoring up your BAU attitude, JD. Jeff never says to hit the snooze button, though. You might ask him why we should care about these "gentle" declines.

That is soon about to be turned on its head. But more on that a bit later, in another thread I intend to start soon.

--> WRONG #1 <--


--> WRONG #2 <--


--> WRONG #3 <--

Wake me up when any of these start producing even 500,000 b/d. Ghawar is around 4.5 mb/d. Cantarell was about 2mb/d (dropping like a stone) and Burgan was up to 1.7 and has been dropping as well.

I'm not saying new production isn't happening- I'm glad for these finds- they will soften the blow- but they will not be able to match the monsters of the past. They could have 2 trillion barrels of oil- its all about recovery rates...

As well as EROEI...How much energy do some of these fields need to get out useful product?

Again- wake me up when all those billions of barrels of untapped oil really turns into recopvered product...

And take a look at Dude's graph again...it tells the story...

-- As I calculated in the 11th post here, the Bakken is already producing about 200K barrels/day. This has been rising lately and will continue to do so as many companies (both on the American and Canadian sides) drill more wells and invest more money in the play.

-- In the last post here I linked an article saying that Petrobras broke the 2 million barrel/day mark on Christmas day, and expects to maintain that throughout 2008, and expand it afterwards when some other new projects come on line.

-- In this recent article here, China's CNOOC announced it has just started production from 2 new fields in Bohai Bay, and expects to double oil production in 5 or 6 years.

-- The Dude's graph is dated, with incorrect future assumptions on oil discoveries. The links I've provided in this thread alone have already disproven it, but I will soon do still more to disprove it. All you peak oilers think there's little exploration going on with few new discoveries being made, but you are wrong.

Again- I'm glad that new production is coming along. There are numerous places that exploration is happening and discoveries are offsetting massive losses from the Old Guard. But again- wake me up when a field hits 500k/day. Ghawar at its peak got to 6mb/d so 500k would be just 1/12th the production level. Still, I'd be impressed.

So Baaken at 200kb/d....that's great- not overwhelming but a good sized field...

Brazil is doing quite well right now but Petrobras is their main oil company that oversees many hundreds of wells- not just one main site. I could tell you Exxon produces 6.5 mb/d. It means nothing.

And Bohai? IN its infancy...wake me up in 10 years...

I'm not trying to belittle any finds- they are all important...but they are like rocks compared to the boulders that used to turn up.

How can you call "conservatively 50 billion barrels" of oil off the coast of Brazil a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?"

How can you call 300 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken a "rock compared to the boulders that used to turn up?" Even if only a quarter of that is recoverable, that's a whole new Venezuela.

This is just another example of peak oiler denial.

How? Recovery rates...Like I said I could tell you I found 2 trillion barrels of oil under Alberta...but how easily (EROEI) and how quickly can I recover it. That is why the true test is telling me how much these sites can recover per day....ie.

Wake me up when one of them hits 500kb/d...Then I'll be interested.



I have never denied that there are new discoveries to be made that will help offset delones in older bigger fields.

But denial is for those who don't do enough research and understand the topic well enough. Like I said, even the most wild-eyed optimists who dream of 5 new Saudi Arabias say that a peak will happen between 2030 and 2037.

In other words...say it with me now...

A peak in oil production is coming...big discoveries or not.

"A study on peak oil, just released by the independent, non-partisan Congressional General Accountability Office, concluded that “Most studies estimate that [world] oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide, because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges, as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil. Demand for oil will, in turn, be influenced by global economic growth and may be affected by government policies on the environment and climate change and consumer choices about conservation.”

Great article!



LINK

Hmmm, let's see . . .

2 million bpd Petrobras (and rising) + 200K bpd Bakken (and rising) = 2.2 mllion bpd (and rising).

It's time to wake up!


It is you who have not done any research on new discoveries, so the denial is yours.

So say it with me now . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . . peak oil is a long ways off . . .

When I was a child I noticed MOST of the other kids had bigger, newer, and more toys than I did. I would be lying if I said that never bothered me. However I also noticed that some of these other kids were NOT automatically happy but instead "bitter".

They have a very strong sense of what I call "entitlement". They think the world owes them something simply because they exist. These are the kids who are convinced that their teacher hates them because they failed a test. Men who get upset at women and call them bitches because they wouldn't date them. Where the "fcuk" does a man get the idea that a woman is "obligated" to give herself to him?

What does this have to do with crude oil? Just imagine how much things are going to "heat up" when all these people who think they're "entitled" no longer get to enjoy the lifestyle they think they deserve.

My Dad says that if we run into supply-shortfalls and demand begins to grow FAR beyond the pace of supply, we should issue 'fuel rationing cards'. I said I'd pay his cab to Crazy Town.

Oil-finder I'm glad you are willing to stay here and fight the good fight...there's very few of you here. Again to sum up...

Major oil fields with massive daily production levels (Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan, Da Qing) have lost steam and are going into decline. The amount of production required to make up for just these big boys is enormous. We will need all of what you and others mention (Baaken, Jack, Caspian Sea, new Brazilian fields and many more) to simply offset the declines of other fields.

People such as Oil-finder discuss oIl fields and claim massive reserves but neglect to talk about EROEI or recovery rates because it does not bolster their argument.

Even if his wildest dreams came true and we found a bunnch of Ghawars that produced 6 mb/d within the next decade...we would still reach a peak within a few decades as other fields declined. This is the observation not of doomers, but of the most optimistic out there...CERA.

So Oil-Finder you wish to extend our party for 20-30 more years...that's a blip. Almost no one believes we have that kind of time but even if we do...it is next to nothing. We still have a very short span of time to prepare foran entirely new way of living. Do you agree with that...or do you truly believe that "peak oil is a long ways off" and therefore we don't need to worry about it.