No Wonder Big Oil is Scared - Production Down for Years!

LadyRuby · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:04 am

I was surprised that almost all the big oil companies production is down this quarter so thought I'd see if this is something new or old news. Definitely old news, most of the three I looked at have been down every quarter (compared to same quarter last year) for the last couple of years. Chevron's been down every quarter since the beginning of 2003 (I didn't check any earlier), and Shell every quarter since 2nd quarter 2003. Yikes :shock:

Crude Production Per Quarter Vs. Same Quarter Previous Year:

Code:

Year      2Q05   1Q05   4Q04   3Q04   2Q04   1Q04   4Q03   3Q03   2Q03   1Q03

Chevron    -6%    -6%    -8%   -6%    -4%   -4%    -2%    -4%    -5%    -8%  (Liquids)
Exxon       -5%  -4%  -1%  +1%  +4%  +5% +4%  +1%     0%     0%  (Crude)
Shell      -3%    -8%    -9%    -5%    -5%    -3%    -1%    -3%    -2%    +9%  (Crude)
Total      -4%     -4%     -1%    +1%   +1%   (Liquids)
Conoco    -1%   0%   +1%   -1%   -4%   +6%  (Crude)

____________________________________________________________________________________

{let's put that in Code to make it a little easier to read; EE}

Edited to reflect just crude/liquids production. Added Total and ConocoPhillips crude oil production.

If a moderator can help with the coding (getting the lining up right) I'd appreciate it.

SupplyConcerns · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 5:04 am

Spooky. They say we'll only see the peak retrospectively.

LadyRuby · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:02 am

SupplyConcerns wrote:

Spooky. They say we'll only see the peak retrospectively.

I agree. If someone wants to do it for BP, go for it. I don't have the energy (ha ha) the moment, but could be obsessed into doing it another time. Are these four then the big oil companies? Any missing?

So does this mean these oil companies may have already peaked? And shouldn't this be big news? This article said they wouldn't peak for several years:
http://www.gnn.tv/headlines/1425/Running_on_empty

Quote:

Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold’s view, each of the world’s seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.

doufus · **Joined:** Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 208

As above

Cyrus · **Joined:** Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 634

More proof PO has already happened and we are just starting to feel the effects.

teemu · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:56 pm

Cyrus wrote:

More proof PO has already happened and we are just starting to feel the effects.

Now an interesting question would be which oil companies are still able to increase their production? I'm speaking of public traded companies because I'm thinking this as investment-wise.

So far one I have found is Petrobras that seems to be able to increase it's production. Norsk Hydro has also been able to increase it's production? Some else?

LadyRuby · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 1:32 pm

What I'm not entirely sure of is what oil-equivalent barrels means, I think it may include some stuff other than just crude oil, but someone with more background in this than I may know. All this information was on each company's websites for quarterly performance reports (in press releases section of website).

lowem · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:33 pm

LadyRuby wrote:

What I'm not entirely sure of is what oil-equivalent barrels means, I think it may include some stuff other than just crude oil, but someone with more background in this than I may know. All this information was on each company's websites for quarterly performance reports (in press releases section of website).

That might probably include natural gas, some oil obtained from primarily natural gas wells, oil sands perhaps. They then convert the energy content back to the equivalent in barrels of oil to get the Mboe or Gboe number. At least, that's how I understand it from the ASPO newsletters and other places that talk about Mboe/Gboe.

doufus · **Joined:** Tue Aug 02, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 208

Can u post the URLs of the places showing the pruction figures cited
illustrating consecutive qtrs of prod decline?

Thanks

AmericanEmpire · **Joined:** Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 497

Quote:

Spooky. They say we'll only see the peak retrospectively.

The big question is when will we go off the cliff.

LadyRuby · **Posted:** Sat Aug 06, 2005 10:10 pm

doufus wrote:

Can u post the URLs of the places showing the pruction figures cited
illustrating consecutive qtrs of prod decline?

Thanks

Here's where you can find them (I'm not going to post the URL for each quarterly report since that would be 30 URLs).

From each of these links below just look for estimated quarterly results, usually the month following the quarter (i.e., look in April, July, Oct, Jan). And somewhere in the quarterly results (may need to open the full .pdf file and not just see the summary) you can see production results. Again, I'm not totally sure what oil-equivalent production means but whatever it is it's down.

ExxonMobil's Press Releases:
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/exxonmobil/

Shell's Press Releases:
long url

Chevron's Press Releases:
http://www.chevron.com/news/archive/default.asp

MicroHydro · **Joined:** Sun Apr 10, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1286

Other than Libya and possibly Algeria, there is no significant upside left. Without major demand destruction we will fall off the cliff before the decade is out.

Yamaha_R6 · **Joined:** Wed Jul 14, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 130

Wait wait wait.. I am confused.

I thought the economy would suffer horribly once we hit the "platue" of oil production, as the economy would be demanding more oil, and there would be no more to meet demand. So that would push the price up to the 100$ a barrel range.

Now everyone here is saying that we are already PAST peak, and are in decline. Shouldn't the economy be falling apart right now? Is there really less oil on the market today then a few months ago? Are people starting to buy less due to the slightly higher prices?

I just find it hard to believe that we are already past the platue and already in decline.

khebab · **Posted:** Sun Aug 07, 2005 6:14 am

Yamaha_R6 wrote:

Wait wait wait.. I am confused.

I thought the economy would suffer horribly once we hit the "platue" of oil production, as the economy would be demanding more oil, and there would be no more to meet demand. So that would push the price up to the 100$ a barrel range.

Now everyone here is saying that we are already PAST peak, and are in decline. Shouldn't the economy be falling apart right now? Is there really less oil on the market today then a few months ago? Are people starting to buy less due to the slightly higher prices?

I just find it hard to believe that we are already past the platue and already in decline.

Most of the oil is produced by NOCs (National Oil Companies). They own 60% of the world oil reserves.

LadyRuby · **Posted:** Sun Aug 07, 2005 6:16 am

Yamaha_R6 wrote:

Wait wait wait.. I am confused.

I thought the economy would suffer horribly once we hit the "platue" of oil production, as the economy would be demanding more oil, and there would be no more to meet demand. So that would push the price up to the 100$ a barrel range.

Now everyone here is saying that we are already PAST peak, and are in decline. Shouldn't the economy be falling apart right now? Is there really less oil on the market today then a few months ago? Are people starting to buy less due to the slightly higher prices?

I just find it hard to believe that we are already past the platue and already in decline.

The major oil companies, at least some of them, seem to be in decline, and OPEC seems to be producing a lot more heavy crude rather than the preferred light sweet crude. So some I think are saying light sweet crude has peaked, but perhaps not all conventional oil has peaked yet.

No Wonder Big Oil is Scared - Production Down for Years!

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