I think that's very true.

Imagine this: suppose this time next year oil is at $250 a barrel. My guess is that a lot of Prius's will be off the road but the Ferrari's, Rolls-Royces and even Hummers won't because they're driven by people who can still happily afford to pay $10/gal. These people will probably even be happy because there won't be nearly so many traffic jams.

And save lots of gas too. Can't wait!

Actually Oil there are some economic models which project an advantage to the stronger economies (eventually) whereby they can out compete the weaker ones and pay for the oil and thus increase their market share of their products. Just as you characterize the wealthy affording low mpg cars while the poorer can't afford the Prius purchase/fuel due decreasing purchase power. Obviously China pops to mind. Just a wild projection on my part: due to their expanding economy China can out pay for oil thanks to a rapidly expanding GNP which allows them to take an increasing larger of the auto makers market which generates more income allowing a great advantage over other (US?) auto makers. Their advantage is the high energy prices are offset by low labor costs.

Several years ago I read a report that there was one auto model at General Motors that netted them more profit than all their other models combined. It was a cheap 4 cylider wago the built in China. If this was true it could stand as a bit of varification for the above hypothesis.

Yup...you need to rent an expensive office, put up an impressive looking nameplate, buy a suit and an attractive receptionist. Then people will pay you for your coin flip. What you must not do is allow them to see you flipping the coin. It's called being a 'consultant'. Nice work if you can get it.

oh... and you have to present your coinflip in a professionally printed document with lots of graphs, ifs and buts. If you get it wrong you need lots of reasons why as your getout. With a good spinmeister on staff, whenever you get it wrong, it can be presented in such a way to convince people that you actually got it right.

So true Skeptic. As a truly crooked oil operator I once worked for was found of saying: "I'm selling the sizzle...not the steak. And while they're focused on the plate I reach back and snatch their wallet".

You'll be happy to know that my cohorts and I were able to eventually get him busted by the Texas Rangers. Yep...Texas Rangers. Their still around and going strong. They are sort of like the state's FBI these days. But they still hunt down cattle rustlers too.

There's no question in my mind that car manufacturing in the western world is doomed (with the exception of niche markets). This would happen even without PO. Where it gets nasty is, as you said Rockman, China will be in a position to pay for the oil. This really closes the door on the west in an economic downturn - without resorting to the military option...

Im not so sure. People who drive that sort of flashy motor are the aspirational rich - people who are not that rich but want other people to think that they are. They are into conspicuous consumption, often on credit. They got their McMansion with a 'liar loan', and a Hummer or Roller in the drive bought on credit completes the picture.

The ultra rich have nothing to prove, and in general try to avoid attracting attention. (unless they happen to be car fanatics like Bill Gates) What, for instance, does Warren Buffett drive? As of March this year, a 2001 Lincoln Town Car. Very comfortable, very boring - the sort of car nobody would turn an eye at.

We better hone our Kung Fu moves then. It will probably have to come down to it.

A Lincoln Town Car, however boring, is still no Prius when it comes to fuel consumption. What will it give you? 20mpg going 45 downhill with the wind behind it?

Why do you believe that? There's no evidence that Americans have any interest in changing their lifestyle, until such point as that lifestyle is financially untenable.

I was only talking about manufacturing in the west. We've been pricing ourselves out of the market in everything from Nikes to TVs to mass production cars preferring either to buy imports, or license their manufacture in countries with cheaper labour costs e.g. China. Without oil problems there would always be a market for Hummers, Cadillacs and BMWs.

I could have sworn that this was a discussion about Michael Lynch's view on oil's future.

TonyPrep,

Michael who????

Good point Tony...we do get to rambling at times

Warren's definitely an exception to the rule:



Homes Of The Billionaires - Forbes.com

Glad to see someone's concerned about staying on topic. Have you chewed 'em out at the offshore drilling thread, Tony?

Gosh, I'm as guilty as most, for going off topic but I'd kind of like this thread to stay relatively unpolluted, so the Lynchisms can shine through.

Haven't visited that other thread yet. So many threads and so little time.