Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Fri May 09, 2008 3:11 pm

Oil May Fall on Signs of Supply Gain, Survey Shows

Quote:

"A rubber band can only be stretched so far before it snaps back,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "There are a lot of people talking about $150 oil, but I think this rally will soon be done.''

Sounds like he's getting desperate for some news to prove him right.

RSB · **Joined:** Tue May 13, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 28

From TonyPrep's link:

Quote:

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its introduction in April 2004.

In other words, a coin flip is as accurate as those analysts in predicting the direction of oil futures? Am I missing something here?

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Tue May 13, 2008 6:40 pm

RSB wrote:

In other words, a coin flip is as accurate as those analysts in predicting the direction of oil futures? Am I missing something here?

You're missing nothing. That pretty much sums it up. I don't think that survey ever got better than 55% (certainly not in the last couple of years) and is probably just holding above 49% because of rounding - they've been wrong for umpteen weeks in a row.

sarge5150 · **Joined:** Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 1

I find that America, in general, is very much a throw-away society. If your car breaks, sit it out in the yard and get another one. If your vacuum cleaner breaks, throw it away and get another one. In this vane, most Americans could learn a lot from the Europeans. Most Europeans are very thrifty and nature conscious. They reuse bags from the market, they throw very little away, and they cook almost everything they eat. Again talking about Europeans in general. Europeans also recycle everything from aluminum foil to paper towels.
Another point is the speed at which we travel on the highways of our land. If you travel at 60, you will get much better gas mileage than if you travel at 70 or 80. We must find the ultimate performance point for our vehicles and travel at that point. For instance, my truck gets the best gas mileage from 45 to 65, best being at 60. Therefore, on the highway, I travel at 60 mph or less, whatever the law allows.
Talking specifically about fuel, I find that most American's don't respect the fuel resources that we have found. Gas companies have not built a new gas refinery since the early 70's, and they aren't planning to now.
Working in Civil Engineering, I don't always agree with what the environmentalists preach, but this one thing i do STRONGLY believe. We must respect our natural resources and not take them for granted...be it food, fuel or anything else in our surroundings. If we respect ourselves, we will respect our natural resources and each other...and we must do that on a daily basis, not when it's convenient for us to do so.

Troyboy1208 · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 9:29 am

Very good post but it only slows down the inevitable. There is a notion that if I take the time to conserver something someone else will just take what I don't use. I am having a brain lapse at the moment and can't remember what its called specifically...however it is talked about on this site.

*Man Michael Lynch hasn't been around lately. You think he is hunkering down in his Doom Bunker?

TheDude · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 9:48 am

Troyboy1208 wrote:

Very good post but it only slows down the inevitable. There is a notion that if I take the time to conserver something someone else will just take what I don't use. I am having a brain lapse at the moment and can't remember what its called specifically...however it is talked about on this site.

*Man Michael Lynch hasn't been around lately. You think he is hunkering down in his Doom Bunker?

Jevons paradox

Quote:

In economics, the Jevons Paradox is an observation made by William Stanley Jevons, that as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource tends to increase, rather than decrease.

tin · **Joined:** Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 6

all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be fought and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secret meeting in D.C this year on June 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around Jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to siphon wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occurring gas that plants breath but they have convinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whets really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 2:23 pm

tin wrote:

all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..

Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.

A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?

Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.

arretium · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 3:07 pm

Where is Michael Lynch anyway? I haven't heard anything from him in a year or two. Is he hiding in his abiotic cave?

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 4:28 pm

arretium wrote:

Where is Michael Lynch anyway? I haven't heard anything from him in a year or two. Is he hiding in his abiotic cave?

The odd quote has been posted on this thread from time to time.

SoylentGreen · **Joined:** Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 166

North American production peaked in 60's, the 60's ....HELLO???? They are boiling Tar Sands for oil. That tells me production has peaked and it is all downhill from, my only question is will be how steep and fast the decline is going to be?
I dont believe the middle east, Saudi's in particular have as much reserves as they claim.
I dont believe the So. Americans or the Russian know how much theyre actually sitting on,it still wont be enough to go around when competing with India ,China and Europe for it.
Malaysia used to export, they know want to import.
Nigeria is cutting back 30% production.
Another big oisand patch has been found in the Congo I believe?

The World will never break the 100 million bbl. per day record it already has.

tin · **Joined:** Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 6

TonyPrep wrote:

tin wrote:

all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..

Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.

A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?

Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.

I dare you to do a little research and prove anything i have said to be wrong. Polution is a different subject than global warming caused by carbon. pollution is obviously an issue but that is not what the U.N is taking your tax dollars for. I wish you could disprove all that i have said..

tin · **Joined:** Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 6

TonyPrep wrote:

tin wrote:

all one has to do is google bilderberg. It is a secret club for the ultra ultra elite of the world, basically a shadow government. They determine what wars are to be faught and what direction to take the world's economy. Oil prices have nothing to do with markets. In 2006 it was leaked that the bilderberg group wanted oil prices to increase dramatically and a year later they had doubled from 40 to 80. It is basically an attack on the middle class and a first step in trying to push threw the North American Union . Once you understand what is really going on that this is a false scarcity being imposed on the world to drive up oil prices then it all makes sense. The Bilderberg group is holding their secrect meeting in D.C this year on june 5th- 8th . Hey I would be happy if you don't believe me, just google it and do a few minutes of research. Just trying to wake people out of this false reality they have put us in...... One more thing i would like to add. Global warming is a scam being promoted by the U.N . If people would do a little digging they would realize that temperature variations on earth is a solar event, not something that is cause by people driving around in suv's. The sun goes threw subtle changes in the solar radiation output it produces which effects the temperature of the earth. The polar ice caps on on mars have also been shrinking due to these changes and the frozen moons around jupiter are now actually liquid due to these solar changes. The carbon tax is a scam and a money grab by the U.N to syphen wealth out of the middle class into its own coffers to push forward with its goal of becoming a world governing body. Carbon is a naturally occuring gas that plants breath but they have covinced the uneducated public that it is some kind of nuclear waste. There are no suv's driving around on mars or those once ice covered moons but the same thing is happening there... Hope this wakes some people up to whats really going on... Remember research bilderberg, don't take my word for it..

Oh, I don't think you need worry that people won't take your word for it.

A secret meeting eh? But at least you do know where it is and when it is to be held, so why not go along and report for us?

Listen, if you want to argue that humans don't pollute and that earth's resources aren't finite, I don't think this is quite the right forum or discussion (this one's about Michael Lynch's musings). Try the Open Discussion forum.

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Sun May 25, 2008 8:55 pm

tin wrote:

I dare you to do a little research and prove anything i have said to be wrong. Polution is a different subject than global warming caused by carbon. pollution is obviously an issue but that is not what the U.N is taking your tax dollars for. I wish you could disprove all that i have said..

Disproving secret global organisations could be difficult and I don't need to. The earth is finite, so it's obvious resources will get scarce, eventually. It's also true that certain pollutants have a warming effect and that the earth only has a limited ability to soak up our waste. So why not pretend that these unpalatable facts will start impinging on your life soon and that you should prepare for that? Seems like a better strategy than worrying about secret organisations or that maybe we haven't yet reached a climate tipping point.

Anyway, as I said, the open discussion forum is better than here. Why did you pick the Michael Lynch discussion to post your theories?

woodsman · **Posted:** Thu May 29, 2008 10:03 am

Hi I'm new to this forum....enjoy your posts...I am in the oil/gas well service business....I was thinking of all the fuel required to bring a well to production and I am blown away....I'm sure I has missed many uses of fuel but the ones that come to mind are : seismic trucks,pickups,4 wheelers, helicopers----doziers for roads,location developement, backhoes, trucks to bring in location gravel for rig bases,moving the rigs, trailers, potable toilets, filling mud pit, water , water wells,and water handling pumps cement,down hole chemicals, delivery of diesel for generators, delivery of drill pipe, production tools,casing,b.o.p., flare ,rig welders,,lighting generators , catering,rig relocation, frac tanks, filling of frac tanks, well stimulation,tank batteries, fences,pipeline clearing,digging, laying, ...many of these engines are run 24 /day while at the well locations....Are we using yesterday's production to power today's production? This does not even touch water usage, and pollution..

Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil

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