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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 2:25 am 
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Edited- Jato

Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons. This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.


Last edited by aldente on Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 2:27 am 
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Edited- Jato

Messages devoid of content: This includes posts with nonsense characters (ie. flksdhf). This also includes posts with a single word or only containing emoticons. This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:10 am 
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Bathroom humor? Did I stumble into a frat party without knowing it?

Come on guys I appreciate humor as much as anyone, but really, this is just a poor excuse for levity. PO needs levity or we might as well all shoot ourselves and be done with it, but can't we keep the level a bit higher?

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Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:23 am 
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What is the meaning of "bathroom humor"? Does it have anything to do with the American fear of body odor?
I swear, if ever any county would like to build an army designed to defeat the American one it has to be one based and built on elements "offending American females and their inability to deal with body odors"!
(and this comment does not refer to what my previous posts indicated, there might be indeed a double entendre going one here..)
Please note the color of the toilet in the first picture and the fact that it is lit!
Only then, should you be allowed ´´´´´´´´´´´do a deeper search in the water.


Last edited by aldente on Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:37 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:31 am 
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JD,

Got a link for that DOE report?


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 3:52 am 
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Please remain on topic.

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"Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 4:12 am 
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JD wrote:
According to Laherrere, NG will not be peaking globally until around 2030.

Is this accurate? If so, why the hell does everyone act like NG is going to peak the same time as oil? It seems like just about every suggestion made for possible PO mitigation solutions are ‘debunked’ by people claiming that the NG situation is the same as the oil situation. Or do people just feel that a quarter a century of NG isn’t going to make a difference?

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"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 4:53 am 
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Omnitir wrote:
Or do people just feel that a quarter a century of NG isn’t going to make a difference?


No. For several reasons, not least is that NG is expensive to transport.

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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 5:26 am 
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Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.

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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 5:53 am 
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What did Jato delete? Certainly nothing earth moving.. As far as I recall a clear vision into a toilet bowl (a look into the near future) and the other one- which was.. .I forgot what it was..

{I deleted two posts with pictures that were off topic. To refresh your memory, one picture was of a girl sitting on a toilet. Please stay on topic and use better discretion when you attach images. If you want to discuss it further, PM me.} jato.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 8:01 am 
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ashurbanipal wrote:
JD,

Got a link for that DOE report?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/
P. 299


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 8:50 am 
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Antimatter wrote:
Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.


Your example proves my point, Japan is a notable exception. Japan imports LNG because it has little domestic production and no pipelines, so it has no choice. Japan accounts for the majority of global NG trade. In fact Japan has to import 80% of its energy.

Building LNG infrastruture is expensive and takes time to build - by which time NG peaks. NG is icing on the cake, but the cake is still going rapidly.

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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 9:22 am 
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Antimatter wrote:
Liquification, transport and regasification losses for LNG are on the order of 10%, it is quite energy intensive. Japan has been importing considerable volumes of LNG for some time though. It will definatly help.


It also requires a significant infrastructure to be in place for handling LNG, most of which does not exist in the rest of the world. There are exceptions like Japan but that's exactly what they are - exceptions.

Given the long lead times and the huge capital investments made into such infrastructure of typically $1-$5 billion per facility, and thus the long recovery time for getting money back out (let alone making a profit), even with natural gas peaking worldwide in 2030, it doesn't make much sense to build a large amount of LNG capacity in North America right now. By the time it is built, the peak will be in sight and then we may not be able to even get what's left. (Nations may take it off the market for "national security" reasons to support their own industries, etc.)

For North America, the natural gas situation appears worse because we did make such a large shift to natural gas beginning in the 1970s and it made sense at that time to some degree. So, in a manner very much like oil, North America was an earlier adopter and thus will peak somewhat sooner. Offsetting the depletion of regular natural gas is the potential for coal bed methane recovery. It's not a silver bullet but it might buy us more time in that area too and since we're going to have to be pulling coal out of the ground soon in much larger quantities, we may as well try to recover the methane than just vent it to the atmosphere.

The ultimate bridge energy is nuclear since there is enough to give us exactly the sort of breathing room necessary to migrate to other energy sources, primarily wind and solar. Biodiesel is not terribly viable for replacing current oil consumption but biodiesel might very well be viable for replacing a key subset of current consumption, such as the diesel used in key extraction industries (i.e. mining coal, uranium, etc.) which might then allow us to migrate the rest of the infrastructure to a mainly electric transport system for people and cargo.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 9:30 am 
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ashurbanipal wrote:
Quote:
The U.S. is not going to run out of fertilizers and pesticides any time soon because both can be made with coal.


More energy intensively, but yes. This is correct. It won't be forever, and it's certainly not going to cover our fertilizer needs worldwide. I think urea has a better chance, actually. But, again, in the short term, you're right.


We will not suddenly run out of oil, will we? So we can gradually replace it with coal. Why can't we do that worldwide?
Then it won't last forever, but why wouldn't it last enough to make the transition to the next energies?

Quote:
As I understand the state of the technology so far, it's quite a bit more expensive to do so, and the process can't be scaled up quickly.


Why wouldn't it become cheap enough before we need it? Why do you think we will need it so quickly?
Actually, my question should be: when do you think we won't have enough oil to make our fertilizers?
What amount of oil per capita will there be then?

Quote:
Again, you're correct, but doing so would make food horribly expensive.


This is assuming the price of this technology will stay the same.


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 Post subject: Re: Conservation, Doom, Madness
New postPosted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 9:33 am 
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Conservation, Doom, Madness.....This is the perennial theme we come back to. Are we really at such a critical juncture? We strive with our intellect to understand and succeed in many areas with our critical analysis. And yet we don't know what will really unfold. I thought I would share some words recently written from the culture of the original first Americans.


Subject: Fwd: Reading from Hopi Nation - "We are the ones we've been
waiting for"


Reading from Hopi Nation

"You have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour.
Now you must go back and tell the people that this is the Hour.
And there are things to be considered:
Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?
Know your garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.
This could be a good time!
There is a river flowing now very fast.
It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid.
They will try to hold on to the shore.
They will feel they are being torn apart, and they will suffer
greatly.
Know the river has its destination.
The elders say we must let go of the shore, push off into the middle
of the river, keep our eyes open, and our heads above the water.
See who is in there with you and celebrate.
At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally.
Least of all, ourselves.
For the moment that we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to
a halt. The time of the lone wolf is over. Gather yourselves!
Banish the word struggle from your attitude and your vocabulary.
All that we do now must be done in a sacred manner and in
celebration.
We are the ones we've been waiting for."

- The Elders, Oraibi, Arizona Hopi Nation"

Taken from http://www.omniparticle.com/burning_ice1.html


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