Catalog of recent oil discoveries

dorlomin · **Joined:** Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 2112

OilFinder2 wrote:

Size of discovery: 6 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 29, 2009
Company(s): Repsol and PdVSA
Name: Junin 7 block
Location: Orinocco oil sands, Venezuela
API: heavy oil
Flow rate of test well(s): no information
Estimated production startup date: 2012
LINK

So 6 billion of these barrels are Venezuelan heavy oil.

Its not even C&C. And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

OilFinder2 wrote:

Recoverable running total year to date: 4.546 billion barrels minimum to 9.984 billion barrels maximum

Corrected it for you mate.

dorlomin · **Joined:** Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 2112

OilFinder2 wrote:

This next one is interesting. We all know about the Athabasca oil sands, but until I read this today I didn't know there were also oil sands deposits in the Peace River region of Alberta (which is in NW Alberta near the BC border). According to the company website here this area contains an estimated 188 billion barrels.

I have no idea how long they've known about these particular deposits, but they're calling it a discovery, therefore, so shall I.

Size of discovery: 517 million barrels recoverable, out of 1.99 billion barrels OIP.
Date: June 29, 2009
Company(s): Strata Oil
Name: Cadotte
Location: Alberta, Canada
API: Heavy (bitumen)
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Some in area already in production, this particular project planned to produce 56,000 bpd
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 8.46 billion barrels minimum to 10.826 maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Canada Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Additions to White Rose - 40-90 million barrels - 7/06
Paktoa C-60 - 240 million barrels - 10/07
Cadotte - 517 million barrels - 06/09

More tar sands and heavy oil.

OilFinder2 wrote:

Recoverable running total year to date: 4.029 billion barrels minimum to 9.467 billion barrels maximum

dorlomin · **Joined:** Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 2112

OilFinder2 wrote:

An appraisal well is going to be drilled on this prospect in September. The resource size range is quite large for now so I'll edit this entry when info on the appraisal well is released. For now it's sort-of a placeholder.

Size of discovery: 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 9, 2009
Company(s): Tullow, Heritage and a few others
Name: Tweneboa
Location: Offshore Ghana
API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

From the link provided

LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.41 billion barrels minimum to 4.743 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Ghana Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Mahogany (later merged with Jubilee) - 300-600 million barrels - 06/06
Addition to Jubilee/Mahogany - 200 million barrels - 06/07
Addition to Jubilee - 1 billion barrels - 07/08
Tweneboa - 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels - 07/09

Well TonyPrep is right!

Quote:

The Tweneboa-1 exploration well in the Deep Water Tano block (Tullow 49.95%) was completed in March and encountered 21 m (69 ft) of light hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, a deeper independent 4-m (13-ft) oil zone and an over-pressured zone at total depth. The light hydrocarbon accumulation, with P50 oil and gas potential of 250 MMboe and upside potential of 1.4 Bboe,

This is gas that is getting counted as oil. How much of this is drillable oil?

pstarr · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:03 am

dorlomin, your "additions" to this list of "discoveries" are valuable. Thanks a heap.

dorlomin · **Joined:** Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 2112

OilFinder2 wrote:

Thanks JB.

The recoverable number here is based on the stated recovery factor of 50-70%.

Size of discovery: 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable, 2.3 - 4.2 billion barrels OIP
Date: May 6, 2009
Company(s): Heritage Oil
Name: Miran West
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: 27, low sulfur
Flow rate of test well(s): 10,000-15,000 b/d/well
Estimated production startup date: End of 2009
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 1.237 billion barrels minimum to 3.065 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 5.515 billion barrels minimum to 7.01 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Iraq Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Tawke 1 - 100 million barrels - 6/06
Miran West - 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable - 5/09

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... -7339.html

Even this one seems to have been a touch dissapointing. But as it is actual OIL, Ill let oilgoogler2 off.

pstarr · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:20 am

TonyPrep wrote:

OilFinder2 wrote:

OK, for here on out I offer an open challenge to anyone who thinks this thread is biased, wrong, or whatever: For every discovery I catalog, I challenge you to prove it wrong.

Go ahead, make my day.

No-one needs to prove individual discovery reports wrong. Just wait for data to come out from organisations that are dedicated to this kind of research and see what the totals are. We've already seen that discoveries are no-where near the rosy picture you try to paint. So something is clearly wrong with your catalog though, good on you, you've acknowledged that the 2007 total is way down on what you thought.

I remember when Kashagan was discovered in the Caspian and touted as "black gold" As early as 1998, a Time magazine article pointed out that if the US Energy Department’s estimates of potential Caspian reserves were correct, the region would have to contain “the equivalent of 400 minimum-size giant fields,” or 200 billion barrels of oil. Industry and magazine reports regularly "measured" 30-60 billion. Now we know that the Caspian region in total 9-16 billion. I used to argue with ReserveGrowthRulz(Droolz

) that it is just as reasonable to downgrade initial estimates as to upgrade them. (see Kurwait's admission of reserve growth inflation as an example)

I don't trust the magazine articles.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:26 pm

dorlomin wrote:

OilFinder2 wrote:

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.546 billion barrels minimum to 15.984 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 13.484 billion barrels minimum to 14.984 billion barrels maximum

While I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, I am not a complete idiot either.

How precisely does the maximum recoverable exceed the maximum discovered oil in place?

Why is the minimum recoverable volume about 78% of the minimum oil in place? Are you listing recoverable without oil in place?

I explained this earlier, but perhaps you missed it.

Starting this year, I am keeping recoverable figures totally separate from OIP figures. If a company reports a recoverable number, I put it in the recoverable category. If a company reports an OIP figure, I put it in the OIP category. If they report both, I only use the recoverable number.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:30 pm

dorlomin wrote:

So the implicit level of accuracy from the words "maximum" and "minimum" is
hokum. There is clearly no discernable confidence interval for these figures, they are derived from widely different methodologies and many of these discoveries may just be press bluster from factions within countries trying to whipp up a bit of investor interest or companies press departments flapping there lips?

The "minimum" and "maximum" figures result from the fact that many companies report their discoveries as a range of figures - e.g. Oil Field X contains 500 million - 700 million barrels of oil. So, the lower number gets added to the cumulative total for the minimum while the higher number gets added to the cumulative total for the maximum.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:34 pm

dorlomin wrote:

So 6 billion of these barrels are Venezuelan heavy oil.

Its not even C&C.

This is a Catalog of Recent Oil discoveries. You yourself just said it is oil. Heavy oil is still crude oil. Thus, it belongs in this catalog.

dorlomin wrote:

And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

If that is true, then how come graphics like this are such a central part of the peak oil litany?

dorlomin wrote:

Corrected it for you mate.

Sorry, you lose. You yourself just admitted it was oil.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:40 pm

dorlomin wrote:

OilFinder2 wrote:

An appraisal well is going to be drilled on this prospect in September. The resource size range is quite large for now so I'll edit this entry when info on the appraisal well is released. For now it's sort-of a placeholder.

Size of discovery: 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 9, 2009
Company(s): Tullow, Heritage and a few others
Name: Tweneboa
Location: Offshore Ghana
API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

From the link provided

LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.41 billion barrels minimum to 4.743 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Ghana Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Mahogany (later merged with Jubilee) - 300-600 million barrels - 06/06
Addition to Jubilee/Mahogany - 200 million barrels - 06/07
Addition to Jubilee - 1 billion barrels - 07/08
Tweneboa - 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels - 07/09

Well TonyPrep is right!

Quote:

The Tweneboa-1 exploration well in the Deep Water Tano block (Tullow 49.95%) was completed in March and encountered 21 m (69 ft) of light hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, a deeper independent 4-m (13-ft) oil zone and an over-pressured zone at total depth. The light hydrocarbon accumulation, with P50 oil and gas potential of 250 MMboe and upside potential of 1.4 Bboe,

This is gas that is getting counted as oil. How much of this is drillable oil?

ALL oil fields contain some gas. You're trying to dismiss this discovery just because it happens to say Mmboe. What you failed to do was pay more attention to the listing:

Quote:

API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone

26 API oil is not natural gas.

You lose again. Sorry.

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 4:42 pm

dorlomin wrote:

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/7339/heritage-oil-wraps-up-testing-of-miran-west-1-expects-well-to-produce-up-to-10000-bopd-7339.html

Even this one seems to have been a touch dissapointing. But as it is actual OIL, Ill let oilgoogler2 off.

How is that disappointing??? Your own link says the single well is expected to produce up to 10,000 bpd. That's a damn good well!!

God man you must be desperate today! :lol:

TonyPrep · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 7:15 pm

OilFinder2 wrote:

dorlomin wrote:

And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

If that is true, then how come graphics like this are such a central part of the peak oil litany?

Think, OF2. Graphs like that are important simply to show that, no matter what the flow rate, discovering less oil that is produced has implications that I'm sure don't need spelling out. Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be. Surely you realise that? If you don't, then pointing out that different categories of oil have different flow rates probably doesn't make much sense to you.

shortonsense · **Joined:** Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 2963

TonyPrep wrote:

Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be.

I thought flow rate WAS the rate of production?

Or did you mean, when Oily lists a flowrate from a given well, some summation of those then determines the rate of production for like the entire field?

OilFinder2 · **Posted:** Sat Nov 14, 2009 8:17 pm

TonyPrep wrote:

Think, OF2. Graphs like that are important simply to show that, no matter what the flow rate, discovering less oil that is produced . . .

As opposed to less oil that *isn't* produced??

Whatever that was supposed to mean. *shrugs*

TonyPrep wrote:

. . . has implications that I'm sure don't need spelling out. Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be. Surely you realise that?

I thought it would have been obvious I was asking dorlomin why he thought such an important part of the peak oil litany should be, as he said, so unimportant.

TonyPrep wrote:

If you don't, then pointing out that different categories of oil have different flow rates probably doesn't make much sense to you.

Of course different categories of oil have different flow rates. But a lot of the oil shown discovered on the chart back in days of yore was heavy oil, too. So you don't really have any point here.

Quinny · **Joined:** Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 1529

Please Oily, - What is your overall discovered not in production figure?
And how llong will it last at 20 million b/d?

Catalog of recent oil discoveries

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