It's not that they are "wrong," it's that I've counted them differently than IHS. Or have you already forgotten the discussion yesterday on Jidong Nanpu? But if you want to prove them wrong, they are sitting there and waiting for you to do so. Go to page 1 of the thread and get to work.

OK, for here on out I offer an open challenge to anyone who thinks this thread is biased, wrong, or whatever: For every discovery I catalog, I challenge you to prove it wrong.

Go ahead, make my day.

No-one needs to prove individual discovery reports wrong. Just wait for data to come out from organisations that are dedicated to this kind of research and see what the totals are. We've already seen that discoveries are no-where near the rosy picture you try to paint. So something is clearly wrong with your catalog though, good on you, you've acknowledged that the 2007 total is way down on what you thought.

The industry uses ROI. Only academics discuss about energy returns. If you are doing macro energy planning, then it is important to calculate the energy invested and the energy returns from the investment, but not important if all you care is about making money.


OilFinder2,
I don't think anyone is refuting your list of discoveries, but are questioning your estimates of how much oil is discovered.

I think for people who follow oil industry knows gov't tend to state large numbers and oil companies tend to be conservative when booking reserves, but overstate when generalizing the fields potential.

For instance, Chevron likes to talk about billions of barrels of oil in Tertiary, but they only book 500mb for Jack field when they know there is more than 500mb of oil to be recovered.

Size of discovery: 100 million barrels OIP
Date: November 3, 2009
Company(s): Talisman
Name: Shaw
Location: UK North Sea
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.546 billion barrels minimum to 15.984 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 13.484 billion barrels minimum to 14.984 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

U.K Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Misc. discoveries - 750 million barrels - 04/06
Anglesey - 213 million barrels - 12/07
Forties and Fulmar - 150 million barrels - 02/08
Fyne - 16 million barrels - 04/08
Additions to block 14/11 - 38 million barrels - 05/08
Golden Eagle - 150-275 million barrels - 09/09
Shaw - 100 million barrels - 11/09

You would think that is obvious but try telling that to pstarr.
He blows a gasket every time I tell him.

He is of...delicate...nature.

I am not delicate. I am concerned

You guys don't invest in thermaldepolymerized turket guts. Or pond scum? Or even Saturian Methane (in spite of JD's stellar advice)

A real rube might put up for Green River Shale oil. But not you pros, because you know IT IS A WASTE OF FREAKIN' TIME AND ENERGY.

Good! You just performed really simple-minded net-energy analysis.

I am not delicate. I am concerned

You guys wouldn't invest in thermaldepolymerized turket guts? Or pond scum? Or even Saturian Methane (in spite of JD's stellar advice) right?

A real rube might put up for Green River Shale oil. But not you pros, because you know IT IS A WASTE OF FREAKIN' TIME AND ENERGY. Good! You just performed really simple-minded net-energy analysis. We agree on something.

p.s. give me a shout when someone, somewhere (even Oily) confirms YOY 31 billion P95 additions. Until then: label me a peaker

Why should we when the current state of fossil fuels is....of plenty?

This very thread helps to quantify the concept.

And you are going to remind me how discoveries exceed production year after year, so that we are drowning in a cornucopia of oil.

No reply pstarr - wonder why?

A question OF2. As (according to the IEA) we are going to need 20 million b/day from discovered, but not in production what's your total reserves in this category.

Just trying to get a handle on how long your discoveries are going to last.

While I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, I am not a complete idiot either.

How precisely does the maximum recoverable exceed the maximum discovered oil in place?

Why is the minimum recoverable volume about 78% of the minimum oil in place? Are you listing recoverable without oil in place?

I believe that this discrepancy is simply because some of OF2's gathered news articles mention only estimated oil originally in place, some mention only estimated recoverable amounts and some mention both. OF2 is simply totalling each category from the numbers in each report. OF2 will, no doubt, point out that this means that both totals are, therefore, understated. This is useful to him because it could mean that the estimated recoverable is a lot closer to the amount consumed this year that the running totals would indicate.

However, remember that this is, in no way, a careful study of oil discoveries (in fact, of oil equivalent studies, since some reports don't differentiate between natural gas and oil), only of oil discovery stories that OF2 has found in his Net searches, and there has been no independent confirmation of these figures.

So the implicit level of accuracy from the words "maximum" and "minimum" is
hokum. There is clearly no discernable confidence interval for these figures, they are derived from widely different methodologies and many of these discoveries may just be press bluster from factions within countries trying to whipp up a bit of investor interest or companies press departments flapping there lips?

Its just trainspotting*. Fair enough.




*Actualy that is cruelly unfair to trainspotters, they cant count a train as spotted because they have seen a picture of it in the papers.