OK, so Pops is hosting the 4th of July grill-out ! I'll bring beer!

So, why are meat prices down ? Why are hog farmers selling at a loss ? Is everyone just trying to get rid of stock at the same time because its too expensive to feed - resulting in a temporary glut?

The guy I get my pork from does non-intensive hog raising where they mostly forage in the woods for food. I would think this style of farming wouldn't be as affected. He seems to be doing Ok and especially with his sales to the upscale restaurants that want to advertise 'local'.

People here often buy large amounts of food and supplies at a time, because they live on remote ranches and have to drive 30-50+ miles to the supermarket. You can even sometimes see real working "cowboys" (ranch hands) at the store. So here, one would not be noticed stocking up.

I see the same thing here, Ludi. Rural areas have a different buying behavior, especially now as fuel prices are getting higher. People, including us, are going into town less often and buying more in fewer trips. We have an old F350 that we drive to town once a month (that's about the only time it's driven), we have a prepared list for several stores and we fill up the back of the truck.

No doubt about that difference. I often pick up my fixin's for dinner on my walk home from work. I'd look might suspicious with a 25 lb bag of rice on my back.

You're on buddy!

I think you are exactly right about hogs and the retail demand is still up and there are a lot in the pipe so I'm guessing they are selling just to staunch the bleeding.

Don't forget that lots of producers contract for their feed a year in advance so they can budget and they also sell futures on their animals. Lots of those contracts were for around $3/bu for corn and have expired and the new contract for fall '08 is close to $6.

I should know more about the cattle market but I can't see any big trend right now. I read that last fall the feedlots did take a loss, but I'm thinking they don't want to kill the market due to this "short term" spike in feed prices. I can tell you that cattle placed on feed in March were down 8-10% from a year ago because of the low price feeders were bringing but came up to about even in April due in large part I'd guess to the Korean market opening back up in May.

One other interesting thing is heifers on feed (those that won't be kept to breed but are being fattened to eat) was up about 3% yoy in April.

Long and short:
Cattle get most of their weight from grass.
Pork, Poultry, eggs and dairy OTOH are super dependent on grain.

Hence the terms,
High on the Hog
Two Chickens in Every Pot
The Land of Milk and Honey

Which reminds me, 25% of the bees in the US have died off...

Dont act such a fucking idiot.

You could remove every American from the planet, right now today and it STILL wont stop Peak Oil.

I have no idea why people seem to think America is the cause of Peak Oil, or food shortages, or hurricanes or the fact some guy in Africa is hungry. You think the world would be all peaches and cream without America?

Wake the fuck up man. America makes very little difference. Peak oil will come, America or not. Food shortages will come, America or not. People will go hungry, America or not. BILLIONS will die. America or not.

So, since our being here makes little difference in the end game why the hell should I suffer to delay the inevitable? Seriously. You think if I switch to a electric car and stop eating beef that somehow disaster will be averted? No. Not even remotely. The most drastic of changes in my life will spare what, maybe 1 or 2 people elsewhere.

In the big scheme of things I have no problems saying "Fuck them".
Lets see. I eat cake and 5 BILLION people starve to death. I eat shit and 4.999 BILLION people starve to death.

"Fuck them".

Gimme cake. Make it 2 pieces please. I'm not cold blooded. I dont particularly WANT these people to die. I hold no ill will against them. I also understand all too well the situation we are in.
PEOPLE WILL DIE.
The greatest of changes in America will not change that. Get used to it.

If it wouldn't take an hour to find 'em, I'd scan some of the ration coupons hidden in my Grandmas trunk somewhere.

Anyway:

http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1674.html

Of course we were At War then...

Good, so it now a smart move to count Chickens before they hatch.

Actually if one is interested in the longer term forecasts I'd recommend AgDay on TV.

Bloomberg et. al. are for traders who don't care about which way they bet as long as they win and is supported by ads from the people who make money on every trade.

Most of each weekday program on AgDay is about futures markets, but also planting reports, crop conditions, etc. focused on benefiting the producer because most larger producers hedge their bets and lock in their prices way beforehand.

You have to read between the lines sometimes but sometimes things jump out at you even at 5am. It's where I first heard about flour rationing to bakeries and at Big Bag wholesalers and where I heard the guy taking about meats this AM say:

It's time to buy a freezer and fill it.

I wouldn't buy frozen meat only. Would be a real shame if power went out for a few days.

Good suggestion re: AgDay - watched that growing up, almost every day.

There's a radio stream out of southern N. Dakota that I catch every so often, and I listened to the daily 2-hour ag report back on Monday. They had a guy on who was promoting the use of distillers' grain (from ethanol refineries) in creating a feed for horses with equine laminitis. The host made it a distinct point to ask all his guests what their thoughts were on the "food for fuel" debate and, not surprisingly, most disagreed with that take on it. However, most of the guests seemed so dialed on a particular subject (making feed for diseased horses, for instance) that the "big picture" seemed to escape them completely. There was a distinct sense of alarm coming from the host, though, and he was looking for placation from his guests, which I'm not sure that he got.

**EDIT** Also, "apparently" - pork is cheap as hell these days? I took notice after hearing that one. There are the prepackaged tenderloins at my store going for $7 - not bad.

Pops wrote: "Actually if one is interested in the longer term forecasts I'd recommend AgDay on TV"

Have you got any recommended websites? No TV here.

They do have a website but those off the cuff comments I mentioned never seem to show up when I get enough caffeine in me to go look. They do have links to reports cited on the show though.