Analyst: Farm flood losses less than feared
JASON CLAYWORTH • July 30, 2008

Iowa’s crop losses are far less than first estimated and – on a statewide level – a decent harvest is in the works, one grain expert told an agriculture task force this morning.

The hits are still significant but some of the hurt has been reduced by replanting, said Chad Hart, the leading grain market analyst for Iowa State University Extension.

Hart, using numbers from the National Agriculture Statistics Service, estimated that 560,000 acres of corn and more than 400,000 acres of soybeans were lost to flooding.

Depending upon such factors as how early it frosts or if additional disasters take place, Iowa is in line to harvest about 93 percent of the corn planted, he told the Rebuild Iowa Commission’s Agriculture and Environment Task Force.

Hart’s report contrasts with initial estimates in June, before it was known how much farmland could be replanted.

For example, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey on June 20 estimated that 3.3 million acres of crops that have been destroyed, resulting in a loss of $3.3 billion. That estimate included 20 percent of corn crops and 10 percent of soybeans.

Corn Falls as Rains Boost Midwest Crop Prospects; Soybeans Drop
By Jeff Wilson

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Corn fell, capping the biggest monthly drop since 1986, as warm, wet weather helped the U.S. crop recover from the worst flooding in 15 years. Soybeans declined as rain next week may east heat stress on crops.

About 66 percent of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition July 27, compared with 58 percent a year earlier, the seventh straight weekly gain, the Department of Agriculture said July 28. Midwest temperatures may reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.9 Celsius) the next six days, followed by more than 1 inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain, said Joel Widenor, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather Services in Rockville, Maryland.

``The sentiment from our farm clients is that the crops are getting bigger,'' said Christian Mayer, a market analyst for Northstar Commodity Investment LLC in Minneapolis. ``We may do a lot better than feared.''

Corn for December delivery fell 13.75 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $6.075 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the first drop in six sessions. The price fell 20 percent in July, the biggest monthly decline since June 1986. Most-active futures have declined 24 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27.

[...]

Russia plans to form a state grain trading company to control up to half of the country’s cereal exports, intensifying fears that Moscow wants to use food exports as a diplomatic weapon in the same way as Gazprom has manipulated natural gas sales.

The move by Moscow, the world’s fifth-biggest exporter of cereals, has been sharply criticised by US agriculture diplomats as a “giant step back” to the Soviet era.

The decision to control food exports is the latest sign of how soaring food prices are reshaping the agriculture industry. The recreation of Soviet-style state trading will aggravate anxieties of food-importing countries about their dependence on the international market, which has been severely disrupted this year after exporters, including Russia, imposed prohibitive foreign sales duties or export bans.

Western diplomats and agriculture industry officials said Russia intended to transform its Agency for the Regulation of Food Markets into a state trader, controlling between 40 and 50 per cent of Russia’s cereal exports within the next three years.

The company would take over government interests in 28 important storage depots and export terminals, including the country’s biggest at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The plan, pending governmental approval, could be implemented before the year’s end, diplomats said. An internal report of the US agriculture department said that if the new entity had a dominant hold over the export market, it would jeopardise “a vibrant private grain trading sector”.

“Essentially, [it will be] the latest in a series of industry renationalisations, and a reversal of what till now has been one of Russia’s privatisation success stories,” the report said.

Soybeans, Corn Plunge as Wet, Cool Weather Boosts U.S. Crops
By Jeff Wilson

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans plunged the maximum allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade, and corn tumbled the most in 10 months as rain and cooler temperatures in the U.S. Midwest improved prospects for crops

[...]

Soybean futures for November delivery fell by the limit of 70 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $12.95 a bushel on the CBOT. The percentage drop was the biggest since March 31. The price has dropped 21 percent from a record $16.3675 on July 3.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 29.5 cents, or 5 percent, to $5.555 a bushel. The percentage drop was the most since Oct. 2. The price has declined 30 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27.

[...]

Coffee Slides as Brazil's Real Declines, Supplies Increase
By Ron Day

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee fell the most in four weeks as Brazil's real dropped and supplies increased from the South American country, the world's biggest producer.

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Coffee futures for September delivery fell 3.3 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.3685 a pound on ICE Futures U.S., the former New York Board of Trade. The percentage drop was the biggest since July 7. The most-active contract gained 2.1 percent last week after four straight declines.

Coffee inventories rose 3.1 percent last month in U.S. and European warehouses monitored by ICE. Brazil will produce a record 51.1 million bags in the 2008-2009 crop year, up from 37.6 million in the previous year, because trees are in the higher-producing half of a biennial crop cycle, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts. Brazil's harvest lasts through October.

[...]

Corn and soybean prices plunged today.

--> Bloomberg <--

Heck, even the price of coffee futures tumbled. No caffeine fixes denied!
--> Bloomberg <--

Coffee inventories rose 3.1 percent last month in U.S. and European warehouses monitored by ICE. Brazil will produce a record 51.1 million bags in the 2008-2009 crop year, up from 37.6 million in the previous year, because trees are in the higher-producing half of a biennial crop cycle, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts. Brazil's harvest lasts through October.

The government of Nepal and the UN have warned that hundreds of thousands of people in the country are facing severe food shortages.

...efforts to get food to the most vulnerable people are being hampered by fuel shortages, strikes, and bad weather.

The price of rice has risen by up to 50% in a year, and the price of cooking oil has gone up 30% in six months.

...many families are coping by eating less, selling their meagre possessions or sending their men folk to neighbouring India to find work.