THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

Guest · **Posted:** Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:49 am

The odulvai theory does not necessarily relate to electricity. The same type of corrolation may be made to food, oil, clothes,... ect...

The main factor driving the odulvai curve is human population. You see, if human population was stable, then the demand of oil would be stable, and the peak oil curve would be very different. (developping countries aside of course, this statement is superficial and assumes that a stable population also has a stable economy that niether grows nor shrinks)

The fact of the matter is, peak oil is just a single factor of the bigger problem of overppulation.

the question thus becomes, is oil supply going to be the triggering factor that forces the human population to shrink back? That's not easy to awnser.

Schneider · **Posted:** Tue Dec 14, 2004 1:53 pm

Anonymous wrote:

while ontario was hit in the 2003 blackout (we recently deregulated and are increasingly reliant on imports form the US) quebec and manitoba, which are to my knowledge independent electrical entitites under provincial (vs open-market) control and tapping semi-renewable energy, weren't. parts of new york that bought power from quebec were also spared.

It is because the Americans didn't trust (how ironic) our power grid,so they asked we had a buffer between the US/Ontario grid and Quebec. It is why,we Quebecois, didn't have any blackout

Viper wrote:

Quote:

i'm wondering exactly how he makes claims that worldwide blackouts will hit many nations will little or no reliance on natural gas or oil or massive interlinked power grids.

Not that I fully agree with his assesment, but to answer this question: Because if we(USA) don't have enough, but we know you do, we'll come up there and take it from you. :twisted:

Be sure of one thing : you will pay the high cost :twisted:

! There is something America should NEVER forget..We are only at few hours by car

! Not like Irak where theses poors bastards cannot reach you. Anyway,i really hope it will not happen

pup55 · **Joined:** Wed May 26, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 4587

http://peakoil.com/fortopic3218.html

Ayoob_Reloaded · **Joined:** Tue Dec 07, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 380

In the very beginning of history, 1945, oil was abundant and cheap. We were on our way back from the war [smilie=qtank.gif]

and everybody had good jobs, and the baby boom was on the way. [smilie=XXspermy.gif]

We were awash in cheap oil, so GE, Standard Oil, and Firestone conspired to destroy the electric trains that connected the early suburbs and replaced that sensible transportation method with... the Automobile!
[smilie=car3.gif]

Well, traffic ended up a little congested, but that's not such a big deal. Anyway, the US built a car culture and created an infrastructure that was based on the availability of a finite resource. Logically, we'd have to transition to something else at some point, but there was so much that we didn't really think about it. Besides, there was money to be made.

[smilie=zicon_elephant.gif]

Some time near the end of recorded history, 2005, a small band of truthseeking corruption-free and totally unbiased people met on the web [smilie=happy8.gif]

and realized the world was about to come to an end [smilie=bs.gif]

so they posted messages to each other for a while until everyone was too broke to have an internet connection [smilie=adios.gif]

and then technology saved us all at the last minute with a perpetual motion machine that emitted photons into buckeytubes, [smilie=director2.gif]

which simultaneously solved the energy problem and convinced everyone in the whole world to reduce our population to a sustainable level [smilie=hippy2.gif]

and everyone just... got along! [smilie=lovestory.gif]

Antimatter · **Posted:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 12:06 am

LOL

How about more endings?

Resource wars, violence and anarchy broke out
[smilie=new_bluegrab.gif]

There was much misery and poverty and death all around the world
[smilie=5cold.gif]

The matrix then failed and we found out how bad things really are...
[smilie=hiding.gif]

theshadypeach · **Joined:** Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 118

:Standing Ovation:
[smilie=eusa_clap.gif]

***** of 5 STARS!!!

Oscar Worthy.

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7564

Thanks for adding laughter to my day. :-D

julianj · **Posted:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 2:54 am

excellent, both of you!

EnviroEngr · **Posted:** Thu Feb 24, 2005 8:41 pm

TrueKaiser · **Joined:** Thu Oct 28, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 525

what about those wacky people who wanted to be raptured [smilie=bduh.gif]

anyway i give this story about a 6, it needs more of the following.

JohnDenver · **Joined:** Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 2156

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:

Quote:

A previous study put the 'cliff event' in year 2012 (Duncan, 2001). However, it no appears that 2012 was too optimistic. The following study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent.

http://tinyurl.com/3vbxy I was thinking of slapping him around some more on this one, and got to wondering what he's been up to lately. Did some googling, but it seems we haven't heard from Richard in a while. His website is dead, and the Institute on Energy and Man, of which he is the Director (and probably sole staff member

) doesn't seem to have a web presence. Anybody know what happened to him?

Stoic · **Joined:** Tue Apr 05, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 23

I've been wondering the same thing. Ironically, it was my reading on the Olduvai Theory that eventually led to me reading about Peak Oil. I have to say that OT gave me quite a scare when I first went over the details, and it also turned me onto a lot of PO facts that I didn't know (like the US peaking in the 1970's, and worldwide discovery peaking).

But, the fact that he hasn't said anything in the past few years is very suspect. Not to mention the fact that his theory has a flaw which is addressed in the Wikipedia discussion re OT. Someone on there pointed out that the third world can increase in population, thereby decreasing energy per capita, and yet still allow for developed countries to live the high life. A simple, and yet powerful criticism.

JohnDenver · **Joined:** Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 2156

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbon ... pter1.html

chargrove · **Joined:** Mon Oct 18, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 89

Sure, that chart shows a roughly level per-capita usage. And because of population growth, we have more "capitas" than we used to. That means an increase in usage over the population as a whole, as expected. So what's your point?

jato · **Posted:** Thu Apr 14, 2005 12:51 am

Quote:

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:

Didn't we just discuss this topic a month or two ago John? It is a fascinating topic, so I am happy to rehash it. The problem is, it hasn’t happened yet. 2007 is not here yet. Even if the SHTF in 2012 (his original date) I will be impressed.

I wasn't aware Richard had a website. Could I have the link?

THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

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