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Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 92 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 7  Next

I believe Peak Oil will probably be...
0) ... revealed as a myth or conspiracy / alternatively "peak what?" 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
1) ... passed as a virtual non-event, and won't create any real turmoil 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
2) ... difficult, but manageable, many people will hurt, but society itself continues 12%  12%  [ 24 ]
3) ... an economic catastrophe, but society will largely recover within a decade or two 18%  18%  [ 35 ]
4) ... a global calamity, but most of us will survive somehow and eventually learn to adjust 28%  28%  [ 56 ]
5) ... the cause of massive human dieoff, society as we know it will not exist within decades 37%  37%  [ 72 ]
6) ... the end of everything, welcome to the stone age 3%  3%  [ 6 ]
Total votes : 197
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 Post subject: Rate your doomerosity
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:59 am 
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Heavy Crude
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Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:00 am
Posts: 264
Location: England
First up, I've got respect for anyone anywhere on the scale that can rationally defend their beliefs. That said, I'm quite curious to find out what the mix on the site is.
Clearly it's going to be loaded towards the high end, because the site is less likely to engage with those nearer the low numbers. I'm also interested to see if the scale works, ir if there are scenarios regarded as likely that just don't fit.

The scale is deliberatly time neutral - I'm not fussed whether you think Peak Oil was 2005, or 2015, or 2050, just what you think will happen as a result.
Of course, loads of people will be somewhere in-between the ratings, or perhaps even off the end? It also occurred to me that the same scale could be used for global warming, or other global concerns, but let's keep it to pure, direct Peak Oil effects for the moment.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:01 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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I voted 2, the first to do so. Feeling a bit optimistic today. I normally drift between 2 and 3, varies with my mood.
I was at 6 briefly, but that was the day I read Matt Savinar's book.
But seriously, I think the technology is basically there; my hope is for solar - third generation photovoltaics(probably because of my electronics background), yes we need more research, but I think we can manage a scaled down version of our current Industrial society, assuming ofcourse we dont lose our heads.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:02 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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Location: Canada
I put in a vote for 4 because I believe that is how it will go over here in the West where I live (South America, and Australia included) because our populations are mostly self-sufficient. There will however be some population contraction through low birthrate and lack of immigration (US doesn't fit this model, but a Nuke can "buy" a lot of food and resources from non-nuke neighbours)

I think Europe will be between 4 and 5. High population with little self-sufficience will cause die offs. Money and Technology will mitigate this.

Asia I would put at 5. Vastly over extended pops with not enough money for mitigation, but technology will help

Africa is 6. Vastly over extended pops, no money, no technology, welcome to the stone age.

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:06 pm 
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NeoMaster
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I voted "4" but in order to have this happy scenario I believe our society will have to completely restructure itself, so that "society as we know it will not exist" in the future, but I don't think that's a bad thing. Just a different thing.

That's my optimistic outlook.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:14 pm 
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Tar Sands
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I voted '4'. I live in Europe and I have a degree in History. The history repeats itself -> all great empires have fallen to be born again in a new form. Many will die, the rest will have to adapt and return to the nature. Civilization as we know it now it's already at a peak... the oil peak (and aftermath) will only make the slope more abrupt.

Wish you all a lot of Conscience.

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:15 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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"1" = fossil based oil usage as we know it is on its way out anyway.

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"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:20 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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3) ... an economic catastrophe, but society will largely recover within a decade or two


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:47 pm 
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Semi-retired Admin
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With no out-of-control cycles or major surprises, I think we could pull off a "2".

There is real risk though of a "5" is we "lose our heads", as said up thread somewhere. I don't bother planning for these outcomes though

I try to remain optimistic and am planning for "2" or maybe "2-1/2"

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:48 pm 
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I voted 5 I think we are headed for a big die off and global wide war. Economic collapse and then war is what my magic eight ball tells me.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:18 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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I am feeling optimistic today and voted 4. With enlightened leadership, and a major shift in values, the world could probably stagger through the 21st century with a (poorer and more humble) population still measured in billions.

On the other hand, war would push the world into a true massive dieoff scenario 5. So I agree with Eli there.

Scenario 1 was already out of reach by the 1960s, scenario 2 passed by in the 1970s, and scenario 3 was squandered in the 1980s.

As Deffeyes has said, it doesn't help to put on the brakes after the car has already driven over the cliff.

The stone age won't happen as long as there is charcoal and scrap metal in landfills.

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"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:28 pm 
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Tar Sands
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Sadly, I voted 3. This scenario represents a spectacular failure on the part of those in power to solve what probobly should have been a non-issue.

I think Peak Oil alone is a problem that could be solved by going through the fire and watching Industrial civilization ressurect itself, though I believe by 2050 a multitude of problems will bring the whole thing down.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:36 pm 
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Fission
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The more I've learned over the past year and a half...

and the more I've tried to get the word out, through articles, etc....

the less I see of anyone listening or doing anything...

and the farther I move down that scale:


Quote:
4) ... a global calamity, but most of us will survive somehow and eventually learn to adjust

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:37 pm 
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Expert
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I voted 3 but that's for up here in Canada.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:40 pm 
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Intermediate Crude
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Which level of doomerosity means that we will at least still have beer?


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:42 pm 
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Light Sweet Crude
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I'm between 4 and 5. The more I think about it, the farther down the list I go.

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