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View unanswered posts | View active topics
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Jaymax
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Post subject: Rate your doomerosity Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:59 am |
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Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 264 Location: England
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First up, I've got respect for anyone anywhere on the scale that can rationally defend their beliefs. That said, I'm quite curious to find out what the mix on the site is.
Clearly it's going to be loaded towards the high end, because the site is less likely to engage with those nearer the low numbers. I'm also interested to see if the scale works, ir if there are scenarios regarded as likely that just don't fit.
The scale is deliberatly time neutral - I'm not fussed whether you think Peak Oil was 2005, or 2015, or 2050, just what you think will happen as a result.
Of course, loads of people will be somewhere in-between the ratings, or perhaps even off the end? It also occurred to me that the same scale could be used for global warming, or other global concerns, but let's keep it to pure, direct Peak Oil effects for the moment.
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venky
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:01 pm |
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| Intermediate Crude |
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Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 857
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I voted 2, the first to do so. Feeling a bit optimistic today. I normally drift between 2 and 3, varies with my mood.
I was at 6 briefly, but that was the day I read Matt Savinar's book.
But seriously, I think the technology is basically there; my hope is for solar - third generation photovoltaics(probably because of my electronics background), yes we need more research, but I think we can manage a scaled down version of our current Industrial society, assuming ofcourse we dont lose our heads.
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FoxV
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:02 pm |
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Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 1317 Location: Canada
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I put in a vote for 4 because I believe that is how it will go over here in the West where I live (South America, and Australia included) because our populations are mostly self-sufficient. There will however be some population contraction through low birthrate and lack of immigration (US doesn't fit this model, but a Nuke can "buy" a lot of food and resources from non-nuke neighbours)
I think Europe will be between 4 and 5. High population with little self-sufficience will cause die offs. Money and Technology will mitigate this.
Asia I would put at 5. Vastly over extended pops with not enough money for mitigation, but technology will help
Africa is 6. Vastly over extended pops, no money, no technology, welcome to the stone age.
_________________ Angry yet?
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Ludi
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:06 pm |
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Joined: Mon Dec 27, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 14612 Location: The Hourglass of Doom
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I voted "4" but in order to have this happy scenario I believe our society will have to completely restructure itself, so that "society as we know it will not exist" in the future, but I don't think that's a bad thing. Just a different thing.
That's my optimistic outlook.
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Neuromancer
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:14 pm |
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Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 26 Location: Romania
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I voted '4'. I live in Europe and I have a degree in History. The history repeats itself -> all great empires have fallen to be born again in a new form. Many will die, the rest will have to adapt and return to the nature. Civilization as we know it now it's already at a peak... the oil peak (and aftermath) will only make the slope more abrupt.
Wish you all a lot of Conscience.
_________________ Riding the I of the Storm.
Nagual Seeker.
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BiGG
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:15 pm |
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 978
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"1" = fossil based oil usage as we know it is on its way out anyway.
_________________ "The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil" ............ Former Saudi Arabian oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani,
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DriveElectric
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:20 pm |
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Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 633
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3) ... an economic catastrophe, but society will largely recover within a decade or two
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MD
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:47 pm |
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Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3739 Location: On the ball
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With no out-of-control cycles or major surprises, I think we could pull off a "2".
There is real risk though of a "5" is we "lose our heads", as said up thread somewhere. I don't bother planning for these outcomes though
I try to remain optimistic and am planning for "2" or maybe "2-1/2"
_________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Waiting for the next bounce - md@peakoil.com
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Eli
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:48 pm |
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Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 4005 Location: In a van down by the river
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I voted 5 I think we are headed for a big die off and global wide war. Economic collapse and then war is what my magic eight ball tells me.
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MicroHydro
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:18 pm |
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Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1280
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I am feeling optimistic today and voted 4. With enlightened leadership, and a major shift in values, the world could probably stagger through the 21st century with a (poorer and more humble) population still measured in billions.
On the other hand, war would push the world into a true massive dieoff scenario 5. So I agree with Eli there.
Scenario 1 was already out of reach by the 1960s, scenario 2 passed by in the 1970s, and scenario 3 was squandered in the 1980s.
As Deffeyes has said, it doesn't help to put on the brakes after the car has already driven over the cliff.
The stone age won't happen as long as there is charcoal and scrap metal in landfills.
_________________ "The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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El_Producto
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:28 pm |
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 70
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Sadly, I voted 3. This scenario represents a spectacular failure on the part of those in power to solve what probobly should have been a non-issue.
I think Peak Oil alone is a problem that could be solved by going through the fire and watching Industrial civilization ressurect itself, though I believe by 2050 a multitude of problems will bring the whole thing down.
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killJOY
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:36 pm |
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Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 2422 Location: ^NNE^
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The more I've learned over the past year and a half...
and the more I've tried to get the word out, through articles, etc....
the less I see of anyone listening or doing anything...
and the farther I move down that scale:
Quote: 4) ... a global calamity, but most of us will survive somehow and eventually learn to adjust
_________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
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uNkNowN ElEmEnt
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:37 pm |
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Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 1:00 am Posts: 2761 Location: perpetual state of exhaustion
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I voted 3 but that's for up here in Canada.
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DriveElectric
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:40 pm |
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Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 633
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Which level of doomerosity means that we will at least still have beer?
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KiddieKorral
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Post subject: Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:42 pm |
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Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 1027 Location: 28° N 81° W
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I'm between 4 and 5. The more I think about it, the farther down the list I go.
_________________ American by birth, Muslim by choice, Southern by the grace of God!
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