I would have rated myself at 3, with occassional dips into deep gloom since 1970's oil crisis when the inevitability of oil supply decline first imposed itself on my mind.

Since then I have broadened what I hope is my own survivor skills, and passed them on to as many people as would listen.

I recently purchased Ronald Wright's "A short History Of Progress". [http://anansi.ca/titles.cfm?pub_id=231] This was the catalyst that brought all my thoughts into words.

I recommend his book to anyone who is doubtful about the urgency to adapt and survive changes

Ok.

What I forsee is a series of two or three economic crashes. The first is on the verge of happening. This will merely be a recession.

I forsee this being followed by a brief recovery, probably followed by the 'big one' - the "Realignment" (or, in more clear terms, a major depression).

I also see the distinct possibility - indeed, likelihood of significant dieoff - particularly in the 3rd world. There will likely be smaller ones in the economies of the 1st world.

Now, while I'm hardly a professional economist, I did do economics in year 12 and had a knack for it (about 80% with pretty much no study) so I do have an understanding of the basic concepts.

I do, however, disagree with the concept of non-finite supplies of oil (which is quite frankly ridiculous - almost everything is finite, though often in such volumes as to give the illusion of infinity).

Where does that put me? probably somewhere between 4 and 5. There is going to be some serious smackdown dished out.