Fascinating analysis over at The Oil Drum today:

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/16/182053/32

Stuart Staniford crunches some numbers and comes to the conclusion that the actual depletion rate of existing oil fields is not the 3% often claimed, but closer to 8%. Possibly more.

So why is life about to get fun? On a whole, worldwide production is still up. The countries in decline are totalling only a 1.8% decline on a whole so they are able to make up for the wells that are losing production. The countries that are not in decline only lose on average about 571,000 barrels of oil per day each year - TOTAL.

Flow,

Did you even read the analysis at TOD?

Just something picky...don't say "depletion rate". Say "decline rate". 5% depletion would mean that 5% of initial reserves was extracted in a given year. 5% decline of course refers to an actual 5% decline in the production rate.

Yes, that analysis was very fascinating. I've felt that April 2005 could have been the peak. I think we might make it a few more years, but we are basically on a plateau if we haven't already peaked. There doesn't seem to be enough incremental oil to meet projected demand growth, even in 2006. The crude builds in the U.S. were an illusion due to the refineries that were knocked out. I think we've seen the bottom in prices. Yesterday's rally was impressive.

I read the analysis at TOD by Stuart. Very interesting and well written to the point that a layman like myself could get it.

Sometimes people who are writing an article over at TOD forget to put meaning into their numbers. By that I mean, they dont tell you why the percentages , or mbd's that theyve just put lots of exclaimation marks behind are dreadful , or impossible etc etc. Stuarts article "I got".

I particularly liked his "what if" analysis that he has done. Certainly hes done some cross checking to make sure his own numbers make sense before hitting the "submit" button.

Certainly the analysis would indicate what others have suggested elsewhere. A lot of money and effort will be required in order to keep production levels where they are now , let alone try and "add" some production in order to fuel increasing demand.

Quite a worry then that in his excercise the falls in production seem to match some of the hitherto thought extreme levels. Apparently 3% falls were considered the possible norm , nearer 9% being a more radical view.

We will of course know , when we know ! The rearview mirror will reveal all !

Paul

Ovbiously not... I like people challenging everything about peak oil but people must learn to read the material before commenting!

Also see this thread: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic14953.html

Could these two be merged?

Normally, we would do that, but as fewer people read Depletion Modeling, I think having a post in Currrent Events is good.

MQ

i always knew this was the peak year. at 84 mbpd, there isnt any way to increase that with a depletion rate at even 5 %. demand destruction was the only way we were going to keep from having shortages. katrina and rita pushed things back a little from really getting bad. I wasnt counting on the brits sending refined gas over here either. I think we will look back and realize 05 was the peak year and we topped out at 84 mbpd.

You know, it does look like we're becoming the "Slashdot of Peak Oil".

So, in the immortal words of fellow Slashdotters, you should be using this peculiar acronym : RTFA ...

theoildrum.com is not working right now. another link to the article?

The link is working for me now. And well worth checking out. The comments are as interesting as the article.

I particularly liked Kyle's point, about the difficulty of finding enough new fields to make up for the depletion of more and more existing fields. It gets harder, not just because there are fewer to find, but because you have to make up more and more wells. The classic pyramid scheme problem. When 80% of the neighborhood is selling Amway, it's a lot harder to find customers.

Did you check out the newest article on TOD about the new JODI database?

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11 ... 5/363#more

It is alledgedly launched this weekend, the website of JODI is here:

http://www.jodidata.org/FileZ/ODTmain.htm

Particularly funny is this page, which shows the participation assessment of oil producing countries with smileys:


http://www.jodidata.org/FileZ/jodiworld ... sment2.htm

Of course I checked Saudi Arabia out first, and hooray, there are 3 smiling smileys!

So what, you deserve a nobel-price for this "knowledge"?

That seems unnecessarily harsh....all he said was that he had already thought this would be the PO year.

"Life is about to get less fun, pretty quickly"

Agreed. Everyone is about to experience first-hand the difference between watching the movie version of the approaching future and the real thing. Only this time, Bruce Willis won't be there to save the day.

Try to enjoy what little time we have left while you prepare for a very big 'downsizing'. 2010 is looking more and more like wishful thinking...

Can't you just imagine 'intelligent' life-forms buzzing past our planet (right now):

Life-Form 1: "Any sign of intelligent life forms?"
Life-form-2: "Nope".