Which was one of the big lessons OPEC learned from the 70s embargo. While they hurt the West by halting oil exports, they also hurt themselves by reducing demand for their product (stagflation etc). And the big oil exporting countries like SA are more dependent on oil revenues than ever due to increasingly expensive social programs to pacify their populations.

Well just to argue the point that it would make sense at this juncture for SA to "do some much needed repairs" and reign in there oil production.

Well first, things have changed dramatically since the 70's the North Sea was just beginning to come on line and the non-opec countrys had no where to go but up.

Today all the non-opecs are in decline except maybe Russsia but they don't seem to be trying there hardest to increase prodcution right now. All the big discoverys are gone and now in decline. It is also not just about US demand anymore you have China and India coming on now too. The world oil demand is much higher now than it ever was in the 70's.


But if I was a SA oil minister and I new that we were having to pump more and more sea water to get the same amount of oil I would consider slowing production down. If my geologists came to me and said "sir we are running out of good fields". I would slow things down to make sure that for the remaining oil I had I got the very best price.

The key here is that SA has to be at peak or very near peak if they are it would make total sense to do it. It really wouldn't even be an artifical manipulation of the market either it would just be supply and demand at work.

If SA is close to peak, oil should be north of 100 dollars a barrel and all the worlds economies be damned. If the bottle is half empty, it is time to slow down and make the rest last as long as possible.

I resemble that remark!

There is this little problem in SA with very high unemployment and a huge gov't handout. I doubt TPBT are going to risk civil unrest by messing with the status quo and playing with oil sales.

Oh I don't know if they are selling oil today for 60 dollars and they could get 100 that would be allot of money to pay people to keep busy.