I'm not convicted enough on my thesis to gamble, though. I don't have one penny in the market now. 100% on the sidelines. The whipsaws we're going to see today and this week will bankrupt many a casino player. That's not for me. Keeping my powder dry for when the dust settles.

Still think crude's going to the 70's. Won't stay there long, however.

I wonder what will happen if the Fed has an "emergency rate cut" of .5 points today or just waits and does it tomorrow at their meeting?

The price of gold will probably then go to $200 and oil to $10!!

Chuck

A rate cut should boost the price of oil, actually, as it devalues the dollar, depending on how other currencies are valued. Both oil and gold, in that case would go up. Gold, probably by a significant amount, oil likely back up to 100.00.

Please Threadbear. I hope you know I was being sarcastic.

The liquidity that's being pumped into the market should have made the dollar weaker but the dollar has been strengthening even after the Freddie/Fannie takeover.

So I was joking. Saying that even though there may be a rate cut I'm sure the dollar will strengthen as it has been on news that should cause dollar weakness.

Chuck

Isn't oil going down because banks, insurance companies and all what's called financial industry must urgently raise cash? The only thing left which really brings some cash in is oil, even if it is as a lower price.m (I read something alike in bloomberg that Lehmann had assets in oil)

Good Point Alokin,

Yes, that's happening too in the deleveraging.

People that are leveraged too much are selling anything they can to meet margin calls or keep their equity in some accounts sufficient.

They're throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Eventually the good investments with bullish fundamentals will separate themselves from the rest and rise quite a bit.

Chuck

Down to $93.60. Amazing.

The only problem i have with that argument at the moment, is that if this is it, the beginning of a major market meltdown and possible depression like scenario, demand will crater. Commodities and oil in particular may take very long to ever regain "bullish" characteristics.

I think the only way oil goes back up now is if there is no wider global slowdown. As of right now it does appear that is possible, although i dont think personaly this is the big one yet.

we shall see.

$93.50

We're back to the old question of whether demand will fall faster or production will fall faster. It's a twist on the proverbial race to the bottom, peakoiler-style.

To put it simply and ignoring all the complicating factors, if the global oil/gas fields depletion rate is say an average 8%, and the global GDP contracts say on average 8%, then one could say we're about even.

So. Is global GDP contracting? 8%? 10%? 20%? If so then we could start yelling demand destruction.

$92.82 Falling like a stone......heavy feather.

$91.89

I think we can declare a global economic collapse now.

As I wrote earlier :

The $100 level should hold, but if this support level fails, we could probably get ready to declare an imminent global economic collapse.

$91.56

I hope it goes to $50.00 now.

On the bright side, maybe the resurgence of SUV sales will revive the economy.

HAha ahahha DDDOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!!!!