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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:41 am 
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... oops, back to $137 again. Quite a ride today.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 5:36 am 
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From the "Rumors" section of Tickerforum:

QUOTE: "Rumors from Dubai regarding Lehman's Oil trades...using fed open window funds to speculate on oil (long)...on pre-knowledge regarding Israel making threats and practice bombing runs toward Iran.

Arabs got wind of this and shorted it hard over the 4th weekend causing Lehman to get caught "holding long" over the weekend and getting massive margin calls. Fed closed the window to Lehman and now banks pulling lines, deep pockets pulling funds and fellow IBs refusing to do business.

After Iran got wind of all this they agreed to discuss EU proposals in middle of 4th weekend which caused oil to drop hard Monday.

Now AP, trying to prop oil, seems to be making up news as they good along about Iran having war games (most say it is just a small group doing routine activity) and about Iran stating that they refuse to stop enrichment (Rumor that Iran actually ready to talk to EU at a very near date)." Link

If there is any truth in this, it would explain a lot of things, including the drop in oil prices.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 8:07 am 
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Oil's been bucking like a wild stallion lately! - ride'em cowboy!

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 8:15 am 
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It's not a mystery that needs explaining. Market movements are always jagged. Two steps forward, one step back. Look at historic price charts for oil. Every week or two it drops back down to check in with the moving averages before it surges ahead again. That's just how prices move in an uptrend. If you draw a line between those bottoms you'll find a nice straight line. That line is the support line for the trend. That trend line is currently at $134, though I'm not sure that it's gonna make it that low before reversing this time. If it breaks through that line, say down to $130, then that might signal a different process starting.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 9:46 am 
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FT-Welcome to a World with $500 Oil
Quote:
"With existing technology, the supply of energy from all sources appears to be quite steeply upward-sloping. Even if relatively easily remediable bottlenecks like limited refining capacity are removed over the next 5 to ten years, the social marginal cost of conventional energy production (carbon-based, nuclear, renewable) will rise (even at existing levels of energy production) as existing non-renewable resources are depleted and as the environmental and other external costs of alternative energy sources (solar, wind, wave, tidal, biofuel) become more apparent....

So how high are oil prices likely to go once we get through the cyclical global slowdown that is now under way. Arjun N Murti, a Goldman Sachs expert believes we will soon hit $200 a barrel (up from the current $146 level). The CEO of Gazprom has predicted a $250 barrel of oil before long. Dr. Robert Hirsch, a Senior Energy Advisor at MISI and a consultant in energy, technology, and managemen, says that oil will peak at $500 within the next 3 to 5 years. While your guess is as good as mine (likely better), none of these figures seem outlandish.

Fundamentally, this means that the most effective energy policy (including the most effective energy security policy) is conservation. The only way to encourage conservation is higher prices for the user, that is prices that fully reflect the long-run social marginal cost of energy. We are just beginning to see more realistic prices for energy, even in parts of the world where low-cost energy is seen as a social entitlement.....

If you don’t know who or where the poor are, cash transfers to alleviate poverty are not an option. In that case subsidies targeted at energy sources consumed disproportionately by the poor may be the best that can be done. That would mean, in India, subsidies on kerosine used for home cooking, but not on kerosine used by airlines. It would not mean subsidies on fuel used by cabs, trucks or other vehicles. If a country has electricity or gas metering, a life-line tariff could be created, with a subsistence level of consumption provided free or at very low marginal cost, but with consumption above the subsistence level charged the full long-run marginal social cost (and possibly an extra dollop to pay the subsidy on the subsistence consumption level)...."

Even the economists are starting to get it. That is heartening.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:57 pm 
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patience wrote:
]From the "Rumors" section of Tickerforum:
Quote:
"Rumors from Dubai regarding Lehman's Oil trades...using fed open window funds to speculate on oil (long)...on pre-knowledge regarding Israel making threats and practice bombing runs toward Iran.
Arabs got wind of this and shorted it hard over the 4th weekend causing Lehman to get caught "holding long" over the weekend and getting massive margin calls. Fed closed the window to Lehman and now banks pulling lines, deep pockets pulling funds and fellow IBs refusing to do business.
After Iran got wind of all this they agreed to discuss EU proposals in middle of 4th weekend which caused oil to drop hard Monday.

It is not that Lehman wouldn’t do something like this, if they thought that they could get away with it (they are definitely getting desperate) but I can’t imagine that they would think that they could. The other thing is why would high oil prices force Iran into talks with the EU. Iran going short on oil? It seems to be they would make more money on $145 oil (at 4 mb/d) than on taking short positions against Lehman!
If this is more than a rumor, we will hear more about it in the near future.


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:21 pm 
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They could be engaging in economic warfare... The short would make up for loss of profit, and in return they get to attack some juicy american banks.


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:33 pm 
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Arbitrage. Seems plausable - economically, Iran knows the US is on the ropes, and fat, juicy LB sticks it's neck out in a last ditch effort, and Iran sees an opportunity to help it fail while sumulaneously putting some more egg on the Fed's face. Why not? A week of low oil prices: a few hundred million dollars. Crashing the US economy: priceless.

idiom wrote:
They could be engaging in economic warfare... The short would make up for loss of profit, and in return they get to attack some juicy american banks.


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 9:41 pm 
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Gold is going to $30000 per troy ounce and oil is going to $3000 per barrel ...
and a loaf of bread will cost $60.

How about that? Crazy? :lol: Or maybe not. :(

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:31 am 
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Well the price of oil stayed above the critical support levels a couple of us were watching and appears ready to move up again for a while. If my theory that the current ceiling for oil is 1.421 x the 200dma is correct we should be able to see $150 oil by Monday or Tuesday!! This is because the 200dma will be above $105.5 then....

p.s. Lowem I fear you're right with those predictions. The U.S. dollar going to almost nothing will be the reason....


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:47 am 
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chuck6877 wrote:
Well the price of oil stayed above the critical support levels a couple of us were watching and appears ready to move up again for a while.
If my theory that the current ceiling for oil is 1.421 x the 200dma is correct we should be able to see $150 oil by Monday or Tuesday!!
This is because the 200dma will be above $105.5 then.
p.s. Lowem I fear you're right with those predictions. The U.S. dollar going to almost nothing will be the reason....

Yup. Looks like the 20dma is rock-solid for the time being. $150 next week barring some jarring news in the interim.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:36 am 
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Big move up in the last half hour of floor trading to close near $141.

Heating oil is back over $4 and gas is close to $3.50. There's going to be no respite from high prices.

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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:46 am 
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What just happened?

Oil just spiked sharply higher by 5 bucks.


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:53 am 
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Niagara wrote:
What just happened? Oil just spiked sharply higher by 5 bucks.

Someone farted in the Middle East?? 8) Seriously though, I think it could be a technical bounce of of the 200 DMA. Further up this page, some on here where talking about oil heading to 150 a barrel based on technical analysis---Something like 1.42 times the DMA of 105.


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 Post subject: Re: Another Record ($145.85)
New postPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 11:59 am 
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Forney2008 wrote:
Niagara wrote:
What just happened? Oil just spiked sharply higher by 5 bucks.
Someone farted in the Middle East?? Seriously though, I think it could be a technical bounce of of the 200 DMA. Further up this page, some on here where talking about oil heading to 150 a barrel based on technical analysis---Something like 1.42 times the DMA of 105.

From TOD: mcgowanmc on July 7, 2008 - 11:32am

The shakeout happens on Monday.

Tuesday afternoon inventory gets talked about.

Wed inventory two of the five categories miss.

Oil drops in the AM, rallys at the close.

Thursday rally sets record. Friday holds gains.

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
------

Update: $141.70 Thurs Jly 10, 2008


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