I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2730 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:18 am Post subject: A changing climate of optimism
A changing climate of optimism
Quote:
If you worry a lot about high fuel prices, New Zealand's economic prospects in a carbon-constrained world and related climate change issues, you would have taken heart from three days of conferences in Auckland this past week.
The realisation that the world has begun historic shifts in technology, economics and politics to address these issues - and how abundant are New Zealand's opportunities flowing from them -came through very powerfully.
Scion and its partners are planning to start up a bio-refinery pilot plant in 2011 capable of producing 2 million litres of fuel a year. They then hope to have a commercial plant of 100m litres a year running by 2015.
Given New Zealand's potential to grow trees for biofuel on marginal land unfit for other purposes, Scion believes this fuel can replace 50% of our imported petroleum products by 2030. Such volumes would partially insulate us from world oil prices, replace $3.2 billion of petroleum imports a year (based on current prices), save some $680m a year in carbon charges and open up business opportunities exporting the technology to other countries.
stuff _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 2:45 am Post subject: Re: A changing climate of optimism
Graeme wrote:
A changing climate of optimism
Quote:
If you worry a lot about high fuel prices, New Zealand's economic prospects in a carbon-constrained world and related climate change issues, you would have taken heart from three days of conferences in Auckland this past week.
The realisation that the world has begun historic shifts in technology, economics and politics to address these issues - and how abundant are New Zealand's opportunities flowing from them -came through very powerfully.
Scion and its partners are planning to start up a bio-refinery pilot plant in 2011 capable of producing 2 million litres of fuel a year. They then hope to have a commercial plant of 100m litres a year running by 2015.
Given New Zealand's potential to grow trees for biofuel on marginal land unfit for other purposes, Scion believes this fuel can replace 50% of our imported petroleum products by 2030. Such volumes would partially insulate us from world oil prices, replace $3.2 billion of petroleum imports a year (based on current prices), save some $680m a year in carbon charges and open up business opportunities exporting the technology to other countries.
50% of imported petroleum replaced by biofuel from trees on marginal land by 2030?
If you're in the audience when that is said, is everybody wearing a "I'm stupid" T-Shirt?
Because that's the only explanation I can come up with as to why a public speaker would defecate on everybody simultaneously with such an outrageously obvious lie.
NZ is screwed in a big way.
This kind of 5,000 foot thinking will make it much worse.
Instead of setting up non-petroleum based agriculture, which NZ could do if it started yesterday, NZ is going to wast the next few years planting trees on marginal land for biofuel.
Nice. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2101 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:04 am Post subject: Re: A changing climate of optimism
It's strange watching these people increasingly assume power on our planet. I'm glad we are briefly mortal. I'ld hate to imagine sharing a sentient state of selfhood with these creatures for any longer than 8 decades. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1981 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:42 am Post subject: Re: A changing climate of optimism
I think the title of th ethread promised a bit too much, just like the article did. Any company starting up a project like this would boost the figures to ensure investor interest and bank financing.
The question I have, if the trees aren't already there, and they by 2011 only project a yield of 2M litres, will they grow up in time for 2015 to yield 100M Litres of fuel? That is a 50 fold increase in production in 4 years.
Alternatively, if the trees are already there, are they going to be cut down at a pace that is sustainable? _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 11:50 pm Post subject: Re: A changing climate of optimism
Quote:
Given New Zealand's potential to grow trees for biofuel on marginal land unfit for other purposes, Scion believes this fuel can replace 50% of our imported petroleum products by 2030. Such volumes would partially insulate us from world oil prices, replace $3.2 billion of petroleum imports a year (based on current prices), save some $680m a year in carbon charges and open up business opportunities exporting the technology to other countries.
If trees are grown then harvested to make bio-fuels how does this effect our eligibility to claim carbon credits on those particular plantations?
Creating biofuels for trees (I assume pinus radiata) seems like a silly idea to me. How about just retiring the marginal land and allowing the native forest to regenerate? Trying to cover all of NZ's "marginal" land with pine trees so that fat people can keep on driving may simply result in lots of manuka and kanuka scrublands being cleared for more bland vistas full of pinus radiata. I've heard that New Zealand's hillsides can only support 2 or 3 rotations of pine tree plantings before the land has all the nutients sucked out of it. Can anyone confirm that?
I recently read about another proposal to gather up all the dead saplings, prunings and other woody detritis from pine plantations to make biofuels. Taking away every single scrap of timber from these forests will mean the soil is left even more nutrient deficient, and without the protective cover from all the forestry scraps, the soil will be even more prone to drying out and being eroded away by the wind and rain. It's like the corn-based ethanol industry in the United States. Corn-based ethanol has been criticised for having a low EROEI, but the proponents of corn ethanol say they are working on ways to use the whole plant in the future, rather than just using the cobs as they do now. That means in the future they will haul away the entire plant to the refinery, leaving huge areas of the US mid-west without any kind of biomass cover at all. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:41 am Post subject: Re: A changing climate of optimism
Left to the natural state, about all ecosystems do have some surplus to harvest. If there wasn't surplus, we would not have been able to grow as a species, even before Big Oil came to rule the world. The main question would be how MUCH surplus is there in a region "not fit for growing" anything else?
Barring some enzymatic process which converts cellulose to ethanol or another liquid hydrocarbon, your best use of trees is to burn them. How fast they will regrow so you can burn some more is directly related to the soil and the availability of water. Its highly unlikely those areas of NZ can grow a whole lot more cellulose than they already do.
You can't harvest more energy out of the land than nature provides. You can however harvest energy that nature does not generally use well, wind and tidal power for example. Most of that goes to waste every day. You can harvest energy out of Nuclear Fission, which does not naturally occur without human intervention on the planet. You can harvest energy out of Geothermal processes, though its a dicey proposition since anywhere you set up such a plant has a good shot at being swalloed up in an eruption.
New Zealand does not have a large population. My guess would be they can survive quite well, though they might not be able to drive SUVs in the future.
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