I guess he forgot about economic collapse

some_guy282 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 18, 2004 Posts: 691

Would 5 gallons even be enough to set yourself on fire so you wouldn't have to live in a world without cheap gasoline?
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SILENTTODD

Hermes

Talking about what "The Economy" will be at $450/barrel is just atrocious.

What will "The Economy" be like at $200/barrel, $300/barrel, $400/barrel ...

... is like asking what it'd be like to run a marathon with 7 pints of blood in the body, 6 pints of blood in the body, 5 pints of blood in the body.

It's pretty stupid, really.
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SILENTTODD · Last edited by SILENTTODD on Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

Ayoob · Expert Joined: Jul 15, 2004 Posts: 1110

That's how you price the working class out of private car ownership and usage. It just has to be too damn expensive to use.

I'm opposed to rationing, though. Just let the price float and let everybody buy as much as they can. That's the only fair way.

kjmclark · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 326

This is why Robert Hirsch says we need 20 years to prepare for oil peaking. In 20 years we could pretty easily get down to 5 gal/month. If we had 20 years in which we still had reasonable supplies of oil, we could easily move to a electric train / electric bus / electric car / electric motorcycle / electric scooter / electric bike / regular bike transportation system. Heck, we could carpool: 5 gal/month is 20 gal for four people. In a 30mpg car they could do 15 miles each way for 20 days a month.

We need that 20 years to build housing and jobs close together. That will require diesel construction equipment. We don't have electric versions of those yet, and we would need them to build the housing infrastructure. Without 20 years of smooth prep, you get a chicken/egg dilemma where you can't easily get to a low-oil system.

Of course, a severe enough recession would also get us down to 5 gallons per month, but I agree with everyone else that it would be extremely ugly. That's what the author means when he talks about the "World Made By Hand" alternative. We may know in a few years.

TheDude

An immediate concern is how to put a stop to fuel thievery. At $450/gal you'd see hijacking of most anything, as it is we're seeing massive heists here and there. But then many are saying $250/bbl is a ceiling for the economy to function in the first place.

Ivan_M · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 29, 2008 Posts: 173

TonyPrep

notill · Coal Joined: Mar 31, 2008 Posts: 5

Of course if we want to eat , our five gallons per month will have to go towards plowing, discing, planting, fertilizing, spraying, irrigating, harvesting, storing, trucking, processing and trucking again.

Kingcoal

I think it's funny when I see people talking about $450/bl oil and then offering up futuristic cars. With oil that high, the economy as we know it will no longer exist. The highways will empty out, being used only for priority vehicles. Automobile manufacturing of any kind will be dead. In fact, most consumer manufacturing will be dead and there is a reason for this.

Right now there is a world wide glut of manufacturing. There are too many products chasing too few consumers. There are so many used products laying around, that if manufacturing were to stop, we could have (and will have) an economy based on products already in existence. We currently live in a throw away society. When something no longer pleases us, we throw it aside and buy something new and sexy. We don't buy things out of need, we buy most things because we want something new.

At $450/bl oil, the economy as we know it will stop, replaced by the economy of necessity. This new economy will see the revival of a long dead profession; the Maytag repairman. The population of most countries will start to contract because the less advantaged members will begin to die off due to sickness and starvation. As the population reduces, there simply will be little need to make more furniture, home electronics, appliances, automobiles, etc. Instead of junking used stuff, it will all be recycled into the new economy based on buying, selling and repairing these valuable items. Stores will look like pawn shops because that's essentially what they will become.

Think about it. A 1950's Schwinn bicycle can be made to last for a thousand years with periodic maintenance. Why do we need to throw them out and start over? The same is true of most everything. In fact, IMO, the coveted products will be those that are simple, easy to fix and maintain. I expect small local factories to pop up who specialize in rebuilding products. Our future is a future of endless recycling, just like it was before oil. The only new manufacturing going on will be replacement parts, in the bicycle's case; tires. These parts will be expensive, but will be absolutely needed, so they will be made.
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hope_full · Heavy Crude Joined: May 27, 2008 Posts: 255

You mentioned the 1950s Schwinn bicycle...

Can you imagine what treasures our local dumps possess? When things get down and dirty, I'm confident that the more capable souls will find a veritable no-cost department store buried just below the soil at the town dump.

Hermes