Which geo-political region will be most livable?

Homesteader

The title is the question. . .

Any thoughts, theories or conjectures?

Stability, economic opportunity, social, health, education other social services?

North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Middle East?

bl00k

I honestly don't know. Every region has something bad and something good.

But on the other hand, where there's people, there's trouble. So a very low populated country would be best.

Maybe Iceland?
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vision-master

India.

Homesteader

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 624

I would say Europe.

Plus Points:

) Leaders in nuclear and renewable energy.
) Have high fuel tax on cars already so average MPG is relatively high
) Most have good electrified rail networks and other forms of mass transit
) Historic cities, some thousands of years old, so the urban structure is not as car dependant as new countries like the US and Australia. So commute times are far less.
) Already moving towards a far greater use of renewable energy
) Declining population levels
) Rich
) Direct access to Middle Eastern and Russian natural gas in the form of pipelines.
) Moderate climate

Bad points:

) Little domestic fossil fuel
) Relatively densely populated
) Fragile political and monetary unity.

If a doomer scenario happens I would agree Iceland could be a giant lifeboat. I plan on getting duel citizenship over the next five to ten years just in case James Lovelock is correct.

evilgenius

Yeah, man, I agree with Europe. European countries don't have a problem with the socialist approach. Socialism is the only system left under which the necessary changes can be implemented fast enough to mean anything. Sorry, but America just doesn't want to pay any taxes.
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"Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."

mos6507

Europe has a heating crisis in the future due to an over-reliance on natural gas. Russia has them by the balls. To make matters worse, Europe is very vulnerable to a localized cooling due to byproducts of global warming:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

So even if there is a will to rapidly adapt, they'd really have to be working on it now rather than later. I see no evidence they have a plan in place to wean themselves off of natural gas.

dissident · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 454

The THC carries around 15% of the heat to Europe and the rest of the ocean heat comes from warming of the Atlantic by direct solar radiation. Given that solar radiation is the main contribution to the heat budget over land for most of the year, the temperatures in Europe are not even 5% dependent on the THC. If the THC shuts down then it may trigger a regional climate transition assuming that there is some threshold sensitivity (as during the Younger Dryas), but this scenario is unlikely in the current high CO2 climate regime. Global warming is largest at high latitudes.

vision-master

Like I just said. India, nothing will change over there after the collapse. Besides I bet you could get a nice pad pretty cheap, maybe even a servant or two.

sicophiliac

India? population of 1 billion in an area like half the size of the United States.. hmmm I dont know about that. Lets not forget why sea level rise and global warming might do to them in the longer term. Right next to the middle east, right next to an unstable and nuclear armed Pakistan.

I would reason to say Canada would fair quite well.
They have a reasonable amount of convention crude and natural gas
They have huge deposits of oil sands
They have a small population vs land area and natural resources
They weather in the lower latitudes isn't too bad (global warming might work on their behalf)
Access to vast arctic areas for future oil and gas exploration
They aren't entangled in foreign wars or occupations
To my knowledge they have trade surpluses and shrinking national debt

mkwin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2007 Posts: 624

Fredrik

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 873

a country without heating necessities, no island (too low), were you can garden year round, no political importance (i.e. oil you might get bombed), not to densely populated - certainly Australia!

Ebyss

It really depends on so many things - what do you mean by livable?

Putting aside Global Climate Change for a moment (because none of us really know how that's going to turn out), from a Peak Oil perspective, I'd say Europe. But of course I'd say that, I live in Europe. If I honestly thought that there was someplace else on Earth that was guaranteed to ride PO out better than here I'd go there!

I'm in Ireland, and I think we'll fare OK. We're of little importance from a resources point of view, and we're not of strategic importance either (unless you count Shannon Airport as a jump off point for American aircraft - if they're still flying). We are an island though, which won't suit some people - but the good thing is we're pretty high above sea level. We do have plenty of agricultural land, and we're small - so everything is pretty easy to get to. There is still a "localised" feel to life here. That said, there are plenty of downsides too.

Sweden will probably be better, but the climate is a factor for me personally. Europe is *relatively* stable at the moment, but how long that lasts is open for debate, especially when Russia starts throwing it's weight around. The key is to live sustainably wherever you are so that you can survive regardless of geographical location. Easy to say that though, just read FerFAL's stories about Argentina to know how quickly things can turn into a sh*thole. I would say population density is a worry, but you don't want to live in a tiny Russian village that consists of twelve people and uses the only dog as a roundabout. Again, Ireland comes out reasonably well there, unless you live in the middle of Dublin or way out on the edge of Donegal.

The only thing about Europe is our propensity to go to war, and drag the rest of the world in with us.

katkinkate