I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 10:29 pm Post subject: The Race for Perception
Here in Australia, there is a race for perception of the public against the clock where reality is closing in fast.
We are seeing climate change and the real time issues with that moving really quickly. Peak oil is also the subject of discussion at the minister level. We have ministers in office looking at peak oil and there has been a combined report for SE Queensland.
Could anyone post their ideas on how Australia in general is going to be influenced by this double wammy and their ideas we could iniate to conatin the situation.
For me, our biggest hurdle is going to be food production and delivery to large population centres.
Joined: Nov 20, 2006 Posts: 123 Location: Tasmania
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:40 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
americandream wrote:
Has your climate changed perceptibly?
Oh boy yes! LOL I moved away from the mainland as it was getting so bad - the drought (and rising heat) is appalling and is having a major effect on food, food prices, and jobs. It is just going to get worse.
While the government may slowly be lumbering to some degree of action, I think the general public still has no bloody idea at all. The idea of peak oil and climate change is talked about in the press (climate change far more), but overall my impression is that the majority of people have their heads stuck so far in the sand that they make no preparations, or even think about what impact the double whammy of peak oil and climate change is going to have on their lives. They might talk about it occasionally (very occasionally) but I think most somehow assume that life will go as usual, albeit with some tighter water restrictions. I help run an Australian forum with thousands of members - any thread that talks about peak oil sinks unanswered to the bottom of the pile. People just have no concept of what may happen - or they simply close their minds to it.
I agree with DrBang about food deliveries (and prices, which will go through the roof), but in places like Sydney and Melbourne, if petrol prices go through the roof, or are rationed, people are going to be isolated in sprawling suburbia - I am so glad I am not stuck in those sprawling suburbs. People in Australia are way too dependent on the car; if families lose their car, or the ability to use it whenever they want, then life is going to be terribly hard for many people. It won't matter if shops have food or not, tens of thousands would have no way to get to them (public transport can be abysmal here). Neither will they be able to get to work. In many areas, old train lines have been ripped up and the land sold off.
Joined: May 07, 2007 Posts: 434 Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
Cornelian wrote:
americandream wrote:
Has your climate changed perceptibly?
Oh boy yes! LOL I moved away from the mainland as it was getting so bad - the drought (and rising heat) is appalling and is having a major effect on food, food prices, and jobs. It is just going to get worse.
While the government may slowly be lumbering to some degree of action, I think the general public still has no bloody idea at all. The idea of peak oil and climate change is talked about in the press (climate change far more), but overall my impression is that the majority of people have their heads stuck so far in the sand that they make no preparations, or even think about what impact the double whammy of peak oil and climate change is going to have on their lives. They might talk about it occasionally (very occasionally) but I think most somehow assume that life will go as usual, albeit with some tighter water restrictions. I help run an Australian forum with thousands of members - any thread that talks about peak oil sinks unanswered to the bottom of the pile. People just have no concept of what may happen - or they simply close their minds to it.
I agree with DrBang about food deliveries (and prices, which will go through the roof), but in places like Sydney and Melbourne, if petrol prices go through the roof, or are rationed, people are going to be isolated in sprawling suburbia - I am so glad I am not stuck in those sprawling suburbs. People in Australia are way too dependent on the car; if families lose their car, or the ability to use it whenever they want, then life is going to be terribly hard for many people. It won't matter if shops have food or not, tens of thousands would have no way to get to them (public transport can be abysmal here). Neither will they be able to get to work. In many areas, old train lines have been ripped up and the land sold off.
Mmmmm, and we currently have diesel shortages throughout much of Victoria (i've posted a basic map of the states for reference, for our overseas friends ), due to a refinery failure at Mobil's Altona plant, which is a suburb of Melbourne, the Capital City of the state of Victoria. I wonder what caused that to occur..... *HEAVY CRUDE*. Interestingly , Mobil's Port Stanvac refinery here in Adelaide, although it has a relatively small output compared to Altona, was designed from the outset to handle Heavy Crude. Then of course Exxon and Mobil merged and the place was shutdown and mothballed.
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
We here in Oz seem to be very attached to the idea that this is the lucky country. Nothing bad happens here. All will be well.
This is coupled with: "this is a hard land". Droughts happen all the time. This is just a particularly bad one.Things have been getting steadily worse. We have been telling each other that all is well and rain will come.
Last couple of years we have had serious water shortages around Australia, yet average rainfall across the continent. Our water supply dams are regularly below 20% (16% where I live). What has happened is the rainfall catchment areas have moved. The areas we like to grow agriculture in and collect water from no longer get 'good' rainfall (relatively speaking). To fix this will be really hard and expensive, but necessary.
Too hard for the punters to comprehend, as once they do, they are obliged to support change and fix it. We would rather project what we are seeing onto smaller scale problems like a drought cycle as opposed to long term change.
Everywhere we see the changes if we choose to look. We are starting to feel it where it hurts too. A mine site called Cadia Hill (low grade Cu/Au) needs water to operate. Their supply dam ran low (it got down to 20 days supply). They asked for 75% of the local towns water supply (Orange NSW). If they didn't get it, they would have to shut down their low grade stream. This would involve firing about 500 people and the local economy would be destroyed (the mine economically supports the whole area). I can't remember how this turned out but it was certainly close.
The cost of food is going up. The ecosystems in creeks and rivers are all dying off. We are seeing things like kangaroos coming into the outskirts of major cities to feed because there is nothing to eat where they normally graze. Our farmers are doing it tough and need real assistance if they are to continue to grow our food.
Its all there for those who choose to see it. Oddly, our current government (Liberal, the equivalent of Republican) is still trying to stall education on this issue. An environmental report on the degradation of the Great Barrier Reef was blocked illegally (freedom of information act) to members of the federal opposition on grounds they would use the information in their campaign. Current leadership is still chanting "the economy is all" and the public would rather believe it while paying lip service to climate change. Peak Oil is on the radar but only just. Oddly, it will probably gain credence quicker because it will hurt economically and can be diagnosed as such (less supply/more demand gives...).
That being said, the general public are catching up really quick. perhaps because they have to...
Joined: May 07, 2007 Posts: 434 Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:29 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
DrBang wrote:
That being said, the general public are catching up really quick. perhaps because they have to...
No joke.
There isn't a day now where there isn't at the very least one letter in letters to the editor column that doesn't address water or climate change, even peakoil has seen some coverage of late. _________________ "That the cream cannot help but always rise up to the top, well I say, <censored by peakoil.com> floats"
Joined: Nov 20, 2006 Posts: 123 Location: Tasmania
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
While the general public in Australia might be catching on to the concept of Peak Oil, are they thinking through the implications of what PO means? I don't think so. Most people are pre-programmed to think that "things will always just get better and better and easier and easier" and just don't realise what might be lying in wait about the corner. Or they don't want to realise, because they think it is all too scary. If there are people writing in to the newspaper editors, then that is good, but to me it appears that the majority of Australians are in deep denial about implications. Yes, Peak Oil is coming ... what a bore ... but have you seen the fantastic McMansion listed in the far outer suburbs, dear? Its only a 90 minute drive to shops and work and school! And, yes, it is stuck in a horrid waterless desert, but at least we'll have aircon and we can buy in spring water! Shall we go have a look at it? We'll only have to mortgage ourselves to the hilt! What is life for but a bit more debt?
Posted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
Cornelian wrote:
While the general public in Australia might be catching on to the concept of Peak Oil, are they thinking through the implications of what PO means? I don't think so. Most people are pre-programmed to think that "things will always just get better and better and easier and easier" and just don't realise what might be lying in wait about the corner. Or they don't want to realise, because they think it is all too scary. If there are people writing in to the newspaper editors, then that is good, but to me it appears that the majority of Australians are in deep denial about implications. Yes, Peak Oil is coming ... what a bore ... but have you seen the fantastic McMansion listed in the far outer suburbs, dear? Its only a 90 minute drive to shops and work and school! And, yes, it is stuck in a horrid waterless desert, but at least we'll have aircon and we can buy in spring water! Shall we go have a look at it? We'll only have to mortgage ourselves to the hilt! What is life for but a bit more debt?
OK, so I am a cynical old coot. LOL
Cynical maybe, but also absolutely correct
I was merely highlighting the fact that people of the same mindset as us are finally having their letters published in mainstream newspapers.
Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: The Race for Perception
this is my idea to spread peak oil awareness:
101 things to do to bring our energy prices down
1.ride a bicycle, walk, and bus more often.
2.Plant some fruit and vegies.
3.Add a solar water heater to your home for hot showers.
4.Buy local products where you can.
5.
6.
7.Read a book about peak oil.
etc.
Does anyone have any suggestions to get 101 things? My thinking is that if you add "read a book" to the list, people will get interested more. Like no one cares about peak oil, but they care about high oil prices.
I find this interesting, its about andrew mcnamara:
"But I should defend my colleagues a bit, I don't think that there's lots and lots of politicians here, or anywhere else, who are just sitting on their hands and saying nothing when they know about it. I think it's a genuine blind spot that has just had this debate bubbling away in the geological community and out in broader fringes for quite some time without it ever really making it on your desk. As a politician there is just enormous amounts of reading; reports hit my desk every day. And you don't really need to go looking for work, it just comes at you. So to go and find something that's not coming at you, and Peak Oil really wasn't- There's an element of luck in it. One by one as I talk to my colleagues here there's a reaction of "Oh my God, how did this happen? How come I don't know about it?" And, that's one of the big arguments that people raise, is that "This can't be right, otherwise we'd all know about it". And, the reality is that we'll all know about it sooner rather than later."
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), due to a refinery failure at Mobil's Altona plant, which is a suburb of Melbourne, the Capital City of the state of Victoria. I wonder what caused that to occur..... *HEAVY CRUDE*. Interestingly , Mobil's Port Stanvac refinery here in Adelaide, although it has a relatively small output compared to Altona, was designed from the outset to handle Heavy Crude. Then of course Exxon and Mobil merged and the place was shutdown and mothballed.
