One of the shale doubters that was quoted in this space, consulting geologist Arthur Berman, is no longer published in the pages of World Oil, an American trade journal. World Oil publisher, John Royall, says: “Arthur had written about shale for a year and it was time to move on.” The journal’s editor was dismissed at about the same time. Big shale gas producers, such as Chesapeake and Devon Energy, have taken public issue with Mr Berman’s assertions that the prospects for sustained high levels of gas production from shales were overstated.


This is more than a parochial argument, or a dispute over the value of energy company shares. The upturn in gas production from shale has been one of the few favourable trends in US energy production. Both Wall Street and Washington have had a growing faith that the technologies for getting gas from the previously uneconomic shales were a gift from the gods of low carbon. Shale drillers have itched to displace the half of US electricity now generated from coal.

Mr Berman contends that shale gas wells’ production declines at a dramatically faster rate than the companies’ estimates. Reasonable people can dispute the accuracy of his projected decline curves. I have found Mr Berman open to debate and willing to consider contrary evidence.

Whether he or his critics are closer to the truth about shale gas decline rates, it does seem clear to me that Wall Street has underestimated the real cost of shale gas, and overestimated how fast its production can be expanded.

This matters. By now, close to half of the gas rigs in the US, and most of the development money for the fuel, is going to shale plays.