Of course, to claim a simple motive for the actions of the many-headed Iranian regime would be wrong. But in the seven-year wrangle over its nuclear work, there has been an extraordinary correlation between the regime's taste for antagonism and the level of oil futures.


Yesterday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad urged Iranians to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the storming of the US embassy. The leaders cannot be sanguine about the ability of the opposition to rally the simmering public fury about their "stolen" presidential election. But oil cash brings them more confidence; about their ability to withstand foreign sanctions, if more are imposed, and to buy peace with subsidies at home.

They warned that anti-regime protests would not be tolerated, and the head of Tehran's security forces, General Ali Reza Alipour, said that police would use all their "power and capacity to confront any demonstrators". But those threats were packaged with prominent cash offers. This week, Ahmadinejad reversed a scheme to cut subsidies on food and fuel. "We will take back the bill," he said, overriding some conservative MPs who argued that the government needed the funds.

The leaders' ability to continue to crush that opposition may prove limited, for all Khamenei's calling "naive" those who pinned hopes of change on reformists. But the leaders' confidence in rebuffing pressure from other governments over the nuclear work, which depends on their sense of containing rebellion at home, has clearly recovered from the low point at the UN General Assembly in mid-September. Then, they were embarrassed by the US's revelation of covert nuclear work at Qom, disconcerted by Russia's apparent support for a tough US line and were defensive about widespread censure of the election. They had no clear tactic for responding to US President Barack Obama's offer of direct talks, other than the now-routine fusillade of direct insults.