Well, 15mbd might be doable if they sprung open the wellheads in a consequences-be-damned scenario, but from what I've heard from the Saudis is that they feel that most projections about their production from the EIA and USGS are pretty far-fetched.

The 12.5 number is based on proven oil which can be brought on stream with additional investment.....facilities upgrades in the case of Haradh and additional MRC wells in the case of Kurais and Shaybah. All of these have been in the plans for awhile. I don't think the Saudis have publically stated they could get to 15?
I had a look at WoodMac predictions and they show Saudi production reaching a shortlived peak just above 12 somewhere between 2015 and 2020. WoodMac usually takes all of the available info and puts their own filter on it regarding what might be doeable. If I get a chance I'll plot that info up and post it here.
The real key here is depletion rate....it is tough to predict that because the fields are currently under injection and rates appear to be stabilized.

Former Saudi official says world oil prices will remain high as long as the big oil guzzling economies remain dependent on oil. Does this mean OPEC can't increase production enough to meet demand? No return to the 90s nonetheless.

Saudi statement

It is interesting to note that PFC Energy is suggesting that given an average global demand growth of 1.8% and that all currently stated projects go ahead there will be excess capacity by 2010 by anywhere from 2 - 6 mmbopd. Most of this is due to non-Opec projects coming on stream, although Opec countries such as Nigeria and Saudi do contribute. However from 2010 onwards given no additional major projects from non-Opec countries the call on Opec crude will increase to about 52 mmbpd from it's current levels. This is a significant jump and I am not sure where that will come from.

OK here is a plot based on WoodMac predictions on production (including all announced new developments) for Saudi. I've adultered the data a wee bit (increased depletion rate per field to about 6%/annum once past peak). Also be aware that it only deals with current estimates of P1 and P2. If P3 are brought to P2 in these fields the reserve life will likely increase but I would be surprised to see the peak move appreciably.

http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a61/imoffat/saudiwoodmacprod.jpg

What was interesting to me is that from now until 2015 the ratio of light oil to heavier oil stays about the same (currently 71% and 69% in 2015), same goes for low versus high sulphur crudes. So on a percentage basis the crude delivered from Saudi would not get worse....you would just get less of it.

Rockdoc,

I'm trying to make sure I can put the info from your last two posts together. As I understand it, the info from PCF shows enough nonopec oil to have a surplus until 2010, after that, OPEC's share of production would increase substantially and you're unsure if they will be able to meet this increased demand required of them. In the second post, you estimate a peak oil date around 2015.

So, I don't know how to reconcile the two posts? The first suggest a peak date of about 2010 and the second about 2015. Granted, in the big scheme of things, they are both fairly consistent, but how to you explain the 5 year inconsistency in the data between PFC and Woodmac?

I don't think they are completely inconsistent. The first one is dealing with OPEC and non-OPEC the other is Saudi production. The issue after 2010 is that non-OPEC oil starts to drop off....it no longer is helping to build up that spare capacity between now and 2010 (remember we have projects coming on stream in Angola and Kazachstan as examples). So the call on OPEC oil increases beyond 2010. It doesn't necessarily mean they can't make it. What the WoodMac plot shows is that beyond 2015 without bringing in P3 reserves or additional discoveries this is going to be a tough one.
Remember we are looking at two different consulting groups..PFC Energy and WoodMackenzie each of who have a different bent on how they interpret the data and what assumptions they make.

Well, this quote, from Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, was in an article by Peter Maass:

Tony and Rockdoc,

Sorry, no link, but in a 2004 Oil and Gas Journal article a retired Saudi Oil guy said they could conceivably pump 15 mbpd but not for any length of time without seriously damaging the fields.

Good summary of the situation in this Le Monde article:

http://www.energybulletin.net/14187.html

OK....I think I see where the 15 comes from. This would be from the notion that Al Naimi has put forth that they will discover as much addiitonal oil as they currently have in P1 plus P2 category. He based that outlook solely on the USGS study which is somewhat optimistic for the Rub Al Khali I think (the basin is very gas prone and they suggest a lot of oil will be found here). The plot I show from WoodMac data does not take into account undiscovered oil but deals only with P1 and P2 currently in hand from projects already scheduled.
As too being able to get that level of production from existing projects I don't think they have the facilities to do that currently and the existing plan will only allow for the 12.5 number. They would have to do some serious upgrades or build additional water and gas handling capacities I think.....very capital intensive.

ROckdock123, the plot from Wood Mackenzie Data is based on a P+P number of 140 billion barrels I presume?

How does the 260 billion barrel number fit into this chart?

WoodMac's view of Saudi reserves is Initial liquids of 254.3 billion barrels, remaining liquids of 145.9 billion barrels and another 70 billion barrels that they refer to as technical reserves which they say can be brought on stream but as no projects have been announced they do not count them in their analysis. The above numbers are P1 + P2 according to WM.

This statement makes me wonder about your logic Doc.

I mean you seem to be aware of a ton of stat's yet you must have not taken the time to read this next article:

Saudi Oil Is Secure and Plentiful, Say Officials

Edit : just noticed Tonyprep posted a similar article. cheers ;l)

This is the same article I posted on the "Saudi production" thread.

I took the time to read the entire thread and most if not all of the links yet here is the only link that I posted and it appears that you did not take the time to read it.

Rockdoc Quote "I don't think the Saudis have publically stated they could get to 15?"

Al-Naimi Quote " “Saudi Arabia’s vast oil reserves are certainly there,” Naimi added. "We have more than sufficient reserves to increase output. If required, we can increase output from 10.5 million barrels a day to 12-15 million barrels a day. And we can sustain this increased output for 50 years or more. There will be no shortage of oil for the next 50 years. Perhaps much longer.”

Rockdoc quote "As too being able to get that level of production from existing projects I don't think they have the facilities to do that currently and the existing plan will only allow for the 12.5 number. They would have to do some serious upgrades or build additional water and gas handling capacities I think.....very capital intensive.

Al-Naimi Quote "None of these reserves requires advanced recovery techniques.”

I do not feel there is much more for me to point out here

I would suggest paying closer attention to what they "say" and put that with all your statistics of what they "do" to come up with a "bigger" picture.

Neopo,

I'm not following your attack on Rockdoc. First, its an unwarranted personal attack. You can disagree but not make things personal.

First, Rockdoc, by inserting the ?, was asking for SA statement that they could pump 15 mbpd. He later found the statement.

But, like I said, I still don't get the point of your last point other than you don't like rockdoc. I take from your earlier posts that you are pessimistic about SA's claims? So, why are you attacking Rockdoc when he is also questioning claims by SA that they could in fact produce 15mbpd? Sounds like, to some degree, you both have the same questions.