i'll believe that when I actually see it happening.

I am still hoping for 2015 but with the blame game and more o the same My hopes are dwindling.

It would be great except they will be barely (if at all) be keeping up with depletion. I think depletion will take every barrel they could possibly add from here on out. They'll be fighting as hard as they can just to stand still.

Those numbers are not good, not good at all...

The same thought here. Somehow I don't believe that these numbers take depletion into account.

Anyway somewhere between their 78th and 80th false statement on production increases, I kinda stopped taking OPEC quotes seriously.

ya right this is stupid.. they first off admit that most of the oil from saud is heavy crude.. i just watched "The end of suburbia" and in it it states that the heavy stuff is at the bottom... saudi=peaking? they wont be online for 18 months.. so does this mean our refiners that can't handle this stuff are gonna have to tough it out for a year and a half?

*runs for the hills*

Heavy crude yields about 60% distillates while light crude yields about 90%. So for starters you need 50% more heavy to make up for the depletion in light. You would think that Bloomberg would know something like this. Sounds like more spin to keep the sheep from bolting.

That makes the peak a bit confusing, because what gives the highest yields: 85 mbd (of which say 60% light sweet) or 87 mbd (of which say only 40% light sweet). The latter would raise the demand for oil, even when the demand for oil products stays the same. So we could still see a rise in oil production, while oil products production is in decline. So maybe we should focus on the peak of oil products production, instead of the peak of oil production.

...first off....the parts of Ghawar refered to are Ain Dar and Shedgum.

...and, as previously noted, Saudi Aramco is wholely Saudi...no American owners (even though they kept the Aramco acronym). If there are reservoir engineers interested in gaining insight into Aramco's fields, then they should approach the Aramco agency in Houston. The company is looking for engineers with significant experience (not management...technical). The expat Aramco life is pretty good, particularly if you have a young family.

I'm confused. How can he state that the EIA's estimates are a "dangerous overestimate" yet also say that 15mbpd is possible?

EIA and IAE's estimates go way beyond 15 Mb/d, and assume those quantities can be produced for an indefinite duration...

The EIA data I'm looking at shows:
Saudi Arabia :
8.6 (1990) 9.2 (2002) 14.0 (2010) 14.5 (2015) 15.4 (2020) 16.3 (2025)
(available in appendix E at the EIA website)

So, no, that isn't way beyond.

In an article here, Al-Husseini says:

Ok fine, obviously it isn't sustainable indefinitely. But let's not infer things in Al-Husseini's statement that aren't there.
Take a read of the link the link that Antimatter gave. In it Al-Husseini states that 15mbpd is easily doable. He also clearly states that whether or not Saudi Arabia can sustain that level for decades depends on multiple factors. So it's possible, but certainly not a given.

I believe what Al-Husseini laughs at are projections which are above 15mbpd in 2030+.

I've been trying to find ASPO's Country Assesment on Saudi Arabia to see where the difference is between what they are saying and what Al-Husseini says... but since the ASP site has moved I can't find it, and the search isn't yielding anything... anyone have it handy?

ASPO: Newsletter 21