OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To Jul 12 Seen Down 60,000B/D -Tracker
LONDON, Jun 26, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

OPEC crude oil shipments are projected to fall by 60,000 barrels a day in the four-week period to July 12, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.


Shipments from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to total 24.59 million barrels a day in the four-week period, down from 24.65 million barrels a day in the previous four-week period to June 14, Oil Movements said.

Shipments from key Middle Eastern OPEC producers are projected to decrease by 250,000 barrels a day to 17.58 million barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, announced last week that it planned to raise production by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day in July.

Roy Mason, head of the consultancy, said the effects of that decision weren't clear yet in tanker bookings.

Peak Oil Truths and Consequences
Commodities / Crude Oil
Jun 26, 2008 - 06:26 PM
Truth: OPEC exports will probably FALL in July.

According to Britain-based tanker tracker Oil Movements , OPEC crude oil shipments are projected to fall by 230,000 barrels a day to a total 24.59 million barrels a day in the four-week period to July 5.

The biggest drop is in the Middle East. Shipments from key Middle Eastern OPEC producers are projected to decrease by 350,000 barrels a day to 17.63 million barrels a day.

Oil Movements forecasts OPEC exports based on spot and term chartering of crude oil from OPEC member countries.

So how does this jibe with Saudi Arabia's promise of more production? Answer: It doesn't! But then, a promise made isn't always a promise kept.

OsterDowJones
Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

July 3, 2008

DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Wks To July 19 Seen Up 150,000 B/D -Tracker

LONDON, Jul 03, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- OPEC crude oil shipments are projected to rise by 150,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to July 12 with most of the increased volume coming from the Middle East, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.

Shipments from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to total 24.89 million barrels a day in the four-week period, up from 24.74 million barrels a day in the four weeks ending June 21.

Roy Mason, head of the consultancy, said shipments from key Middle Eastern OPEC producers are projected to rise by 120,000 barrels a day to 18.01 million barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, announced more than a week ago that it planned to raise production in July by 200,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-03-08 1130ET

Seaborne crude exports from 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Iraq, will rise to 24.89 million bpd from 24.74 million bpd in the 4 weeks to June 21, British consultancy Oil Movements said in its latest estimate.

The increase takes exports to their highest this year, surpassing the previous peak which was 24.85 million bpd in the four weeks to June 28.

"There was a distinct tailing off in late June and early July," Roy Mason of Oil Movements said, referring to the two previous Oil Movements reports which showed a fall in exports. He said the recovery in sailings was almost entirely due to sailings from the Middle East to Asia, while sailings to the West had gone up only slightly. "The test is next month which is normally a seasonal low," Mason said.

"The issue is whether refiners will back away in the summer as usual. If not it will be a clear indication that demand is strong," he said. Strong demand from China and India has contributed to the rise in oil prices to record levels above $143 a barrel. Last week's Oil Movements estimate showed a 60,000 bpd day fall in exports to 24.59 million bpd in the previous 4-week period to July 12.

Report: Emirates calls on GCC countries to depeg currencies from US dollar to curb inflation
The Associated PressPublished: July 6, 2008

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates: A newspaper in the United Arab Emirates says the tiny Gulf state's government is lobbying neighboring countries to depeg their currencies from the U.S. dollar to curb inflation.

The National, which is owned by the Abu Dhabi ruling family, reported Sunday that the UAE is calling on all six Gulf Cooperation Council member states to "rethink" their monetary policy amid soaring inflation in the oil-rich region.

It cited an internal report by Abu Dhabi's Department of Planning and Economy.

The GCC members are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman. All of their currencies are pegged to the dollar except Kuwait, which depegged its currency, the dinar, from the dollar in May 2007 in favor of a basket of currencies.

GCC urged to reconsider dollar policy
Asa Fitch

Last Updated: July 05. 2008 11:27PM UAE / July 5. 2008 7:27PM GMT

The Government of Abu Dhabi has called for a “rethink” of monetary policy across the GCC, including the US dollar peg, amid rising inflation, record oil prices and fading prospects for a single currency by 2010.

A report released yesterday by Abu Dhabi’s Department of Planning and Economy (DPE), an arm of the emirate that is not part of the Federal Government, urged other Gulf countries to take a “unified stand” and consider de-pegging from the US dollar and adjusting exchange rates to increase the value of their currencies.

“Pegging was adopted when oil prices were low and the greenback still at the height of its strength,” the report said. “Today, the dollar is falling relentlessly and oil prices are skyrocketing. This new reality calls for a rethink of monetary policies.”

World demand for oil will grow by 50% between now and 2030 as people in developing countries drive more cars, oil producers' group Opec says.

In its 2008 world outlook, Opec said that adequate oil reserves and new methods of exploiting them would allow supply to keep up with demand.

The group blamed sky-high oil prices on the weak US dollar and speculators.

But critics say it is Opec's refusal to increase oil supply that is causing sky-rocketing crude prices.

One dramatic part of the data concerns a site called Ghawar, which has been the kingdom's workhorse field for decades. It shows the field producing 5.4 million barrels a day next year, but the volume then falling off rapidly, to 4.475 million daily barrels in 2013. "That's why Khurais is so important—to make up for that decrease," said the oil industry executive who released the data. He was referring to a supergiant field that is to come online later this year and produce an estimated 500,000 barrels a day of crude. In last month's gathering in Saudi Arabia, officials of the kingdom told journalists that Ghawar had produced just under 5 million barrels a day from 1993 through 2007.

The head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday that oil prices would see an "unlimited" increase in the case of a military conflict involving Iran, because the group's members would be unable to make up the lost production.

"We really cannot replace Iran's production - it's not feasible to replace it," Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said during an interview.

"The prices would go unlimited," Badri said during the interview, referring to the effect of a military conflict. "I can't give you a number."

Analysts said the timing of Badri's remarks was noteworthy, given that the idea of an attack on Iran has been around for years. In addition, an attack on Iran would probably not specifically target oil facilities, said Johannes Benigni, managing director of JBC, an oil research and consulting firm in Vienna.

"Perhaps OPEC wants to say to the Americans in particular that there would be an economic price to be paid for an attack on Iran,"

Perhaps?

OPEC Report Warns of Sharp Oil Inventories Build, Stockpiling
by Angela Henshall Dow Jones Newswires Friday, August 15, 2008
LONDON (Dow Jones Newswires), August 15, 2008

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Friday warned a global economic slowdown will lead to further weakening of oil demand growth, and highlighted the potential for a sharp build in crude oil inventories.

"With current OPEC production well above the expected demand for OPEC crude, there is potential for a sharp build in crude oil inventories," OPEC said in its monthly report.

The current contango structure of the crude oil futures market, where near-term futures' contracts months are cheaper than delivery dates in the future, indicated current supply is more than sufficient to meet demand and would further encourage stock building.

[...]