Petrologistics has slightly different figures and its results are supposed to reflect total production (and not shipments like Oil Movements does).



Dow Jones/I Stock Analysts

DantesPeak said:


Don’t forget that it now takes an increase of 500k b/d/y to just produce the world’s oil. ERoEI is not going up. Plus, the Middle East has several 10’s of millions more mouths to feed each year. Taking all of this into consideration, they would have to produce a lot more, to increase exports a little!

As a country we get what we deserve. We continue to elect inept and corrupt politicians while the country falls apart.

Fixed it for you.

Leaders aren't politicians yet all of our leaders are politicians. Or something to that effect.

The people don't have the stomach for true leaders, they prefer pandering and philandering politicians.

Gawd. I want to be an oil exporting nation!

OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet

Should be causing quite an increase in consumption for those countries. ELM on steroids!

Goph,

Yep...Saudi has been having a baby boom for quit a while. I think the last numbers i saw they were using about 20% of their production internally. An example: 70% of all potable water in Saudi comes from desalinization: an energy intensive effort.

But there's an even more extreme example:

Last year I was involved in drilling several wells off the coast of Equatorial Guinea. Don't feel bad if the country isn't at all familiar to you...it isn't to most. It's a very small island nation off the eastern coast of Nigeria. A population of only 500,000. A Spanish colony until the 80's. Oil wasn't discovered there until the late 90's. Currently ruled by a dictator who took control after killing his uncle, the first dictator after liberation.

I don't have the numbers at hand but I would guess current oil revenue exceeds $80 billion per year. With their small population they are technically one of the richest per capita in the world. Yet 99% of the population lives in extreme poverty. One of the great shortages is protein...odd you might think for an island nation. But the ruler destroyed the local fishing fleet after a failed invasion by mercenaries in 2002 (led by Margaret Thatcher's son). The ruler was concerned that another invasion might use the fleet to infiltrate.

The field I drilled sits right off the island in clear sight of the population. In addition to watching tankers carry off their oil to Europe weekly they also watch the burning of 20 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. This is the associated NG produced with the oil. The operator offered to lay a pipeline and transport the gas to the mainland at its own expense but the dictator rejected the offer. He didn't want to spend the money for a local distribution system.

This is an example of just one little spot on the globe that few know of and even fewer appreciate their contrabution to our endless thirst. How easy would it be for anyone to gain local support by offering a chance to live even a third class existance. I In thinking back to what I saw in EG I'm surprised the revolution has started. But when you consider the penalty for a ciliaan being caught with a weapon is immediate execution without a trial.

Who would condemn the EG people for seizing control of their wealth and utilizing their oil reserves to develop their own economy? Makes the American Revolution fight against "taxation without representation" seem somewhat trivial compared to being starved to death.

And where are these revenues going to be spent?

Seems high oil prices due to scarcity will feed upon itself.

Billions of dollars of revenues being spent into the world GDP will cause energy consumption to rise everywhere it is spent.

Increased Iraqi oil revenues stemming from high prices and improved security are piling up in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rather than being spent on needed reconstruction projects, a Washington Times study of Iraq's spending and revenue figures has shown.




"Abundant liquidity" always fuels growth.

Nice new markets for the Chinese Mfg Machine. They'll get real value for their oil

I agree. I think it is very possible that some of the oil exporters may want to arm the masses in countries like EG, Nigeria (like they need help), or even Iraq to drive up the price.

One interesting note on SA production and reserves:

In 1972, oil reserves were 137 billion barrels based on around 47 oil fields.

Based on those reserve numbers, Abqaiq should be dried, but currently producing about 400kbpd.

I guess this example shows why SA reserves are constantly growing.

Also, currently, they have about 85 fields listed. So, they have found many new oil fields, since the 137 billion barrels of reserves listed in 1972. Some of these are big, too.

Does this mean current SA reserves are accurate? No, but it does show that revising proven reserves does not require new discoveries as original numbers were way off base and very much under reported.

I think I missed your point Goph. As odd as it seems given the endless reports of violence in parts of Africa, the continent is one of the least armed places on earth as far as the general masses go. The military/police/bandits/terrorists are armed but the population isn't. Take EG as an example again: the poor outnumber the military probably 5000 to one. But it's hard to go up against M-16's, even in the hands of a few, with sticks. I really am surprised that those in the world who would like to damage us haven't figured out how easy it would be in some spots.

I'd really like to see an independent analysis of what's really going on in Nigeria. Years ago it reallt was just bandits the disruptions. ut I hear bits and pieces that there is some sort of an orgqanized movement.

Not that put much faith in any numbers coming out of the KSA but it is possible for recoverable reserve numbers to increase w/o develping new fields. Every field has a fixed economic limit. At a given price, once production falls below a certain point the operational cost exceed the revenue and the field is shut in. Should oil prices rise the producting life of the field is extended and recoverable reserves increase. If prices go high enough to justify a redevelopment phase it might add additonal recovery.

This ought to be really interesting:

"Saudi Arabia increasing its production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day in a $90 billion expansion plan that is scheduled for completion next year. Beyond that, Mr. Naimi said that oil experts in the kingdom had identified additional opportunities to expand production, if needed, to 15 million barrels a day in future years."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/23/world ... ei=5087%0A

At one time in the 70's they said they would ramp up to 25 mbd. It never happened

Maybe so anony. I certainly hope so. But the KSA hasn't changed their proved reserve estimate since 1982 despite having produced almost 50 billion bbls of oil. They also refuse to document exactly how much oil they've exported every month for the last 25 years. That's the problem when you're deceitful some of the time. No one knows for sure when you are telling the truth.

We can wait and watch. But it wouldn't hurt to procede as though their statements were false. We still need to greatly modify how we carry on. Even if KSA comes across with additional production it only buys us a little more time. But that would be time we badly need right now.

Recent update on Khursaniyah from Oil and Gas International (no link as it is proprietary)