There is a trend in that graph Dude. Anyone care to point it out to Oily?

I think others here are understanding reality a lot better than Oily. The US wont be there forever, maybe in some small way yes, but we wont be able to afford it over the long haul. There will be more problems as decline sets in and instability and aggression over the remaining reserves will put a definite cap on production. I'd say that where they are now is pretty close to as good as it gets. if we leave in any larger way, and I think with the current administration that we will sometime in the next few years, that production number will have seen its best days.

AP if you don't think Iraq can surpass its all time production numbers, then you haven't been paying attention. Iraq has massive fields with the potential to signifigantly increase production. Speaking of noticiing trends in a graph, anyone remember where this graph was trending till recently

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/images/charts/Nat-Gas-Production.jpg

Yowza.

Well in any case there is a lot of exploration yet to be done in Iraq...so NO ONE knows it's peak yet.

we can still afford to keep 50,000 soldiers there on a shoe string if the dollar does not collapse, and it likely wont if we sit on the WORLD"S second largest conventional petrolium reserves.. ( petro dollar anyone?)

Reminds me of the cold war bumper sticker: "kick their azz and take thier gas"

Either way, the economy in the USA is very very much smoke an mirors....just like the dollar. Industry has been in decline since i was a child...so even an "economic recovery" wont mean what it did in 1985....

Inflating ones way out of debt, gov takeover of industry; is a scary way to end a depression. But what the hell it worked for Mussilini.

BACK TO TOPIC:

Any more thoughts on Iraqi oil ???

Apparently Rumailia and Kirkuk were responsible for 90% of production, so ostensibly fields like East Baghdad are ripe for the picking. Also they're still injecting fuel oil into fields, screwing them up as a result. Dunno about getting more to market, or what the prospects would be, given how unstable the country is.

There is a cycle of instability that shows up in the graph - that's above ground stuff of course. But even at the high of the war with Iran they cranked out what they could - tankers were being shelled, even. What's happening next door in Iran could spill over to Iraq. How that would play out is impossible to predict, of course. .

Petroleum distillates cheaper than Water in the ME? Say it aint so!

In my opinion the key factor are the Iraqi security forces who will take over the US army's surge policy and move into the cities from next month. The sectarianism of the place will result in Sunnis, Shia and Kurds protecting their own. There will also have to be an agreement on sharing the oil wealth and the status of Kirkuk will have to be agreed upon. If, and it's a very big and doubtful if in my opinion, you can resolve those issues then maybe you stand a chance of having a stable country and possibly pushing production to the 6mbd that is the target of the Iraqi government.

The reality I believe however is that civil war has always been inevitable, ever since US troops crossed the border back in 2003.

Hmmm, we have an The Iraq chaos thread and a Iraq Civil War Thread but no Iraq Oil Thread.

Or maybe we do, but I'm not finding it. The "Iraq reserves>Saudi Arabia" one.

We should have a page of links to these meta threads, and just add updates like this on to them. Even Graeme posts new stuff that has big dedicated threads in the archives.

Here:
http://peakoil.com/current-events/iraq- ... 95-90.html

I doubt Kurdistan all by itself would ever be another Saudi Arabia, but Iraq as a whole certainly could be.

Aw heck stu.

We love it when they fight each other.

devide and conqueor...

What is the point of your post? Are you looking for justification/sympathy because you bought that 65" flat screen for your bathroom?

For the point of view of realpolitik, the US occupation of Iraq is a stunning achievement.

It's immoral, illegal, insane, but the US now has a rosier future in the post peak world.

It will be interesting to see what all the "transition/powerdown" people in the US do once the Iraqi flows increase and start filling in where Cantarell is leaving off. Will these people "swear off" consuming such Iraqi oil out of a superiority complex?

I sure hope so, as this will reduce demand, cause prices to drop, and allow me to fuel up my tractor more cheaply.

I like you. You are a funny smart wise-ass.

Geez wizz, Wally, it would be quite a shock if it turns out that Iraq/Kurdistan actually IS the golden fleece of remaining oil stock in the world.

Stroke of luck, we're already there mate!