I have been pondering on the Aftermath of complete financial collapse and what it might mean for North America in terms of a Soviet Union style breakup. I believe the US, Canada and Mexico may reorganize into 8 Regional Trade Entities, at least for a while until we devolve back to the Stone Age I'll work around the continent with the 8 proposed Regions.

R1: The Northeast including Quebec and Montreal. Southern limit in MD, Western limit OH. Future name "Zombieland"
R2: The Southeast from MD to FL,western limit LA. Future name "Toaster"
R3: Great Lakes Region including Ontario, Manitoba, the Dakotas,MI,WI, MO, IL and IN Future name "Hosers" Ku-ru-cu-koo, Ku-ru-cu-koo. Thank you Bob and Doug Mackenzie
R4: Great Plains IA west to CO, southern border KS . Future name "Slaveland"
R5: Southwest including Mexico, TX, OK, NM, AZ. Future name "Texico". LOL.
R6: Western desert including CA, NV. Future name "Death Valley"
R7: Utah. Future name "Polygamy"
R8: Northwest including WA, OR, ID, MT, BC, Alberta,Yukon, AK. Future name "Florida" For the Balmy climate. LOL.

Each region can more or less self support, except for Death Valley which should depopulate quickly from thirst.

I'll be interested to see how the currencies develop. Any further ideas on this topic are welcome of course

Reverse Engineer

You're assuming that someone or some group will be around with enough power and resources to do the organizing. IF, and that's still a big if, things get so bad as to de-volve into something unrecognizable, I don't think there will be any one with that kind of power. More likely, I think, if chaos prevails, is a complete disintegration of order where it's each man for himself.

I haven't any idea how that might arrive or work out. There is just no precedent for our present situation.

Anything besides your daydreaming to support this?

Rules for the forum state:


emphasis mine.

You can read the following working paper by Theodore Crone for the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Pennsylvania. The division into 8 Regions is actually done by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the US Census.

http://www.phil.frb.org/files/wps/1999/wp99-19.pdf

The particular breakdown I made is not precisely the same as that made by the US Census, however, they do not take into account Canada and Mexico in their analysis. It adds another couple of parameters not being looked at when this report was written.

Anyhow, you are quite free to make other break ups as you see fit here Cur, that is part of the analysis. Anyhow, this stuff all doesn't just pop out of my head, its all out there to read, just its not quite written the same way I write it. Dull academic literature, ho hum. I have a perkier style. LOL.

I trust this is sufficient documentation for the Geopolitics Forum.

Reverse Engineer

I find the secession meme loses its steam with Bush leaving office and McCain tanking in the polls. I'd really like to see how the national situation feels after Obama has a year under his belt.

I am not looking at this as a Political movement for secession as much as a natural geographic and social resolution to logistical problems resulting from transportation infrastructure problems and the banking system failure.

Clearly, though on an international level it appears that trade is grinding to an abrupt halt both in the markets and in the shipping lanes (just anecdotal information on this so far here on Peak Oil, but it makes sense), I don't think government here will fall into Instant Anarchy. So prior to anarchy, you have to look at what the next level downward in political state units might be, and I don't think its the individual US States, because virtually none of them have means for complete self sufficiency. These geographic units (with some modification obviously, I was being a little humorous in the OP ) seem to me to be plausible areas which might develop an internal trade apparatus and separate currencies for that trade.

I don't think it happens immediately or simultaneously either, I could see first an East-West Division of the country along the boundary line of the Mighty Mississippi as an initial trade breakup, while the Nation-State of the US still is kept intact as a political unit, at least on paper.

Such a breakup to 8 Regions like this I think would take some time, probably on the order of a decade if we have that long before the Nukes start flying or the ecosystem and food chain drop off the map.

Likelihood also would be that each Region would be run by a Military Governor, at least in the beginning all connected to a central command, but without money coming in to maintain the central command from the entire Nation State, it would fall to the region to support that military unit. At this point their interests are no longer the same, just as the interests of Russia are not the same as Ukraine or Georgia.

Its possible also there might be a groundswell from the bottom demanding secession as the Federal Goobermint shows itself to do little for the individual state while at the same time demanding exorbitant taxes to pay off the bills of the bankers. Both forces drive the country tward a breakup of some kind though, regardless of whether McCain or Obama get elected. I really do not think either of these fellows can do much to stabilize the situation or fix the problems with the current organization of the country.

Reverse Engineer

RE can't say I agree with everything you put, but I'd love to share a pint with you! LOL at the flames from WC.

Nothing I could think of would be more enlightening than discussing Doom over a Pint of Bitter. I get my best insights at the bottom of a beer mug

Seriously, anybody from Peak Oil comes my way, would be happy to share a beer or two at the Moose's Tooth. Fabulous micro brewery up here, with great Pizza also!

Reverse Engineer

Way too big. Quebec would go its' own way for sure and the only way New England would get together with Atlantic Canada is if they were splitting from New York and points south.

Just trying to keep the discussion as serious as possible. For some of us this is not football game or a fantasy to discuss over a pint but the greatest threat to the people and things we love. Not that we don't love the occasional pint, but it is more than bar talk.

source

Treat it as bar talk and fantasy and take RE as your model if you like.

You reap what you sow and this site will be whatever the participants make it. Reality, however, cares not for your daydreams.

The problems we face are national and international. Many of the solutions will be local. Government may aid the healing or hasten the decay. Things like space programs and Manhattan Projects, our government does well. Its attempts at social engineering have on at least one occasion resulted in civil war.

If Mr. Obama is another F.D.R. we will squeak through. If he takes us down the Shining Path, all bets are off.

Joel Garreau already wrote that book:

The nine nations of north america

In the 80s or something. It's a cool book. I think it's entirely plausible that something like this shakes out. Government goes broke, can't pay its promises, can't enforce its wishes, citizens are left to figure it out on their own.

The problem I have is why did you call the great plains slaveland? most of it is too arid for plantation/slave farming, and all that's out there is cattle.

Reverse

search for this topic over at LATCO or TOD or here and you will get lots of posts on it. You have been posting here only a couple of months and maybe it just bores me when I see the same thing again I already read a dozen times.

Take history of Aircon for example and howthat effects the 24/7/365 shopping mall and office complex mind set in USA and you will see that lots of cultuaral norms and population trends towards south and desert west will change. Likewise that will change the trand to fundamentalism as most of that is in high enrgy consumption newly populated areas. Post PO people will go back to rust belt where there is water or to Cascadia. Whether new politcal entities come into bing or not is in light of such considerations insignificant. Population density patterns, migration patterns are much more interesting than simple political discussions as these do not touch on underlying problems.

As an old man........ Don't eat the brown acid ( Google it)
Do eat the mushrooms......

You know, belittling the discussion as "bar talk" simply because Quinny interjected some familiarity to the discussion is not productive to the discussion. I am TRYING to "lighten up" some, I was annoying myself with the stridency of some of my posting, and I sure know I was annoying some others unnecessarily. I'm also trying to keep this discussion to the topic and providing some backup for it as well with the Penn Fed report.

I am quite certain as well such things have been discussed here, on the Oil Drum, LATOC, etc. I read plenty, but you know I cannot read EVERYTHING so I do depend on other people with whom I discuss such subjects to enlighten me further than simply telling me I need to go and read through the Oil Drum in order to be worthy of a discussion. If you point me to a post that specifically addresses these issues, I'll most certainly read it.

I gather that because I don't have a serious enough academic style and because I write speculative posts, in your opinion this makes my perspective unworthy here where serious people meet to discuss serious issues?

There is no situation so bad it can't be helped with a little humour. MASH surgeons of course are famous for their Gallows Humour, and Shakespear always made a point of juxtaposing comedy with tragedy. I can't say I am anywhere near as good at this as Shakespear, but good grief it frustrates me that people take themselves so seriously here. Even when I write the Fire & Brimstone stuff, its generally tongue in cheek.

Insofar as the comments made by the Silver Surfer that migration patterns will affect the absolute end result of a divison up into Regional subsets of the North American Continent, I have no doubt that is true, however such migration patterns probably work on a longer timescale than the current pressures for break up have. To find a stasis point, you would first look at what the most immediate likelihoods might be versus where longer term trends might lead them. Its not a static analysis, and there is no real end game to it until the end is actually reached, likely by forces that supercede the driving forces of economic migration.

The point here would be that I do think both you and Surfer have some ideas on how such a break up might take place, based on your own thoughts and your readings from places like LATOC and the Oil Drum. All to the good. I would rather read YOUR take on the subject rather than simply being refered to reading those websites, though if you at least give me specific references I will read them.

Otherwise, what I feel you are doing here is just disrupting the thread by belittling what I write. If you don't have anything substantive to contribute here, just leave the thread to people who will contribute their ideas, with humour or without.

Reverse Engineer