...three US naval task forces will be in place opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea by October 21.

Oct 23 and no suprise? Well as I was saying, we're not going to invade Iran.

Iran, $16bn refining plans

The National Iranian Oil Company has drawn up 12 plans for the construction of new oil refineries and the development of existing ones, reported the Tehran Times citing the Mehr News Agency. It has been estimated that around $16bn would be needed to carry out the project, which would include the development of the Abadan refinery and the provision of turnkey contracts for the construction of others.

U.S. President George W. Bush will not hesitate to use military force against Iran if other options fail, Israel's outgoing ambassador to the United States said in an interview published on Wednesday.

"I know President Bush well ... From his standpoint, a nuclear Iran, ayatollahs with a bomb, is unacceptable," Danny Ayalon told Israel's Ma'ariv newspaper.

10/31/06 Platt's Oilgram News 6
2006 WLNR 19757509
Platts Oilgram News
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
October 31, 2006
Volume 84; Issue 209

Section: EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Iran could be net oil importer by 2016 : PFC

Slow exploration and rising domestic demand are eroding export capacity
Kate Dourian

Iran could become a net importer of crude oil by 2016 or even earlier if the giant Azadegan and Yadavaran oil fields are not developed in time to stem a steeper than expected decline in production, PFC Energy said in a report.

"Based on mounting evidence of significant declines in production, the glacial pace of exploration and development, and rapidly increasing domestic demand, Iran's crude export capacity may fall dramatically in coming years. Without a fundamental and nearly immediate shift in policies, Iran's net crude exports could fall to zero in as little as nine years," the Washington-based consultants said in the first segment of Iran's " Oil Card" series.

Since Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh was appointed oil minister in December, progress in the energy sector has been limited by "government interference, the gridlock at the Ministry of Petroleum produced by last year's change of government, delays caused over buyback contracts, international investor hesitation due to the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, and an increasing reliance on domestic companies," PFC said.

"If an escalating rate of crude production decline (even with a probabilistic allowance for E&D) is projected in parallel with the nation's growing crude demand, the dire consequences are apparent," the report said.

"Potentially becoming a net importer of crude by 2016 (sooner if the vital Azadegan and Yadavaran fields are not brought online in due course), Iran risks the loss of the government's fiscal underpinnings, and a fundamental alteration of its entire position on the regional and international stage," it said.

Predictions of a precipitous decline in production capacity were magnified after a recent claim by Vaziri-Hamaneh that Iran was experiencing "a natural decline of 500,000 b/d per year, roughly double previous estimates," and present a "catastrophic decline scenario," PFC said.