If the S. Korean nuclear test was a real deal we might expect some Iran bound skirmish before the end of the year..

Why? Is there really an "axis of evil"?

1. Pseudo rational reasons:

- NK can't be militarily engaged unless you want to have the SK capital Soul reduced to Dresden-Berlin panorama of 1945 by conventional attack only..

- bushevics have to show some balls to stay in power

- Iran has true strategic importance because of the energy issues.
If NK can have a nuke than Iran can certainly have a more advanced mini nukes and have a leverage with the Israeli arsenal

- planning and low level fight is already unfolding in the E. provinces of Iran as shown in the Gardiner's paper among other reports


2. Follow the irrational pattern:

- attack someone else (Afghanistan-Iraq occupation)

Dennis Kucinich scheduled a congressional briefing on the possible build up for attacking Iran, testimonies by Gardiner and David Kay for this Wednesday!

Dennis was a way much better candidate than Kerry in the 2004 race, and as goes the saying Kucinich is the only exciting thing about Cleveland:

USS Eisenhower Group Deployed Tuesday October 3
http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=5491098&nav=23ii

USS Enterprise Already in Gulf
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display ... y_id=25696

Expeditionary Strike Group 5 (Deployed September 13)
http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=25570

Prepare to Deploy Orders Given to Subs
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3564

Conn Plan 8022
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00071.html

Tirrant
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_Anal ... _Iran.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=11968
"The timetable well may be late October as two naval strike groups have been ordered to the Persian Gulf., and one is already there. Strike Force 8 (including the aircraft carrier Eisenhower with a full load of Cruise missiles) left from Norfolk, VA for arrival at Iran on Oct 21 Strike Group 5 group is sailing out of San Diego and the west coast; a Canadian ship is joining them."

Tiranui> thanks for the new details, as you went through all these articles do you remember which forces are just rotating and which are to stay "unexpectedly" in the theathre?

Pentagon/Navy claims that the newly repaired Eisenhower is only replacing the Enterprise battle group, nothing special about it..

http://www.navytimes.com/story.php?f=1- ... 129481.php

thanks

Mesuge> Yeah, they are claiming the newly upgraded Eisenhower is replacing the Enterprise. The Enterprise moved into the region for Operations Iraqi and Enduring Freedom. The site http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/where.htm states the last deployment was 23 Sep 2006 - Operation Enduring Freedom.

However, I speculate they could also be moving one carrier towards the east asian region to send a signal to North Korea. Or they may really be getting ready for an attack as it was mentioned in The Nation ( http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff ) and Time Magazine ( http://www.time.com/time/magazine/artic ... 17,00.html ).
At anyrate they have stated a carrier in the region is very helpful already.

“Over the last three weeks, Enterprise Strike Group has contributed substantially to coalition force progress on the ground,” said Rear Adm. Ray Spicer, commander, Enterprise Strike Group. “Enterprise-based aircraft, in coordination with the substantial support of our coalition partners, are assisting ground forces in defeating Taliban strongholds and making a difference in providing for the safety and security of the people of Afghanistan.”

- http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display ... y_id=25696

Would they need 2 in the region? That depends on what they intend to do. The navy seems to be planning for any contingency with these movements, they are afterall still using minesweepers around Bahrain.

Is it in fact only 2? the last I heard, the Reagan and Lincoln groups were still operating in the area as well. Granted, this information is close to 6 months old by now...

I believe the Lincoln is at the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard in Washington State. I have no idea where the Reagan is offically. I've read reports saying it is in the Pacific, San Diego, and other places over the last few months. The last region I heard it docked at was Port Kelang, Malaysia around June.

I can't find any info about the congress. briefing which took place yesterday and has been organized by Kucinich..??

btw. here is a load of msm links about the potential US-Iran collision:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?ti ... in_Iran.3F

Finally dug out some limited info
(I doubt C-span or other media were present ):

-----------
Congressional Oversight Briefing:
October Surprise: Is the Administration Ramping Up For A War Against Iran? Is Iran A Threat?

Wednesday, October 11, 2006 at 10am
2154 Rayburn House Office Building

With:
-Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich (D-OH)
-Dr. David Kay,Former IAEA/UNSCOM Chief Nuclear Weapons Inspector Colonel
-Sam Gardner (Ret.), US Air Force, National War College
-Joseph Cirincione, Senior Vice President for National Security and International Affairs at the Center for American Progress.
-Dr. Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council

CONTACT: Congressman Dennis J. Kucinich
Doug Gordon (202) 225-5871(o); (202) 494-5141(c)

Washington Office:
1730 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515

Phone (202)225-5871
Fax (202)225-5745
------------

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2006/1 ... 319393.php

Iranian Con-Artist Informant Still Peddling Lies

Posted on Monday, 17 July 2006 @ 11:41:36 BST

Mr. Ghorbanifar Resurfaces With Material on Tehran After His Iran-Contra Role

Concern He's a New Chalabi

Wall Street Journal, 13 July 2006


As tensions rise between the U.S. and Iran, Manucher Ghorbanifar has been fanning the flames.

Twenty years after gaining brief notoriety during the Iran-Contra scandal, the France-based Iranian exile has once again found an audience in Washington for insights into his native country -- to the dismay of some U.S. officials who dealt with him in the past.

The Central Intelligence Agency blacklisted Mr. Ghorbanifar in 1984 for providing allegedly bogus information on threats against President Reagan. It soured on him further after the exiled Iranian businessman helped set up an arms-for-hostage deal with Iran that in 1986 rocked the Reagan administration and embarrassed the CIA

Since the attacks of Sept. 11, as Washington has focused more on Iran's role in the Middle East and beyond, Mr. Ghorbanifar, now 61 years old, has bounced back. He met envoys from the Pentagon in Rome with the blessing of the White House, and shared his views with Republican and Democratic congressmen who traveled to France to meet him and his longtime confidant, Fereidoun Mahdavi, a former Iranian minister, according to American intelligence and congressional officials.

His message: Iran's weapons programs and terrorism connections are expanding, and Tehran is directly targeting the U.S.

CIA operatives have spent hundreds of hours since 2003 trying to corroborate information passed on by Messrs. Ghorbanifar and Mahdavi, former officials involved with the effort say. They say the tips are no better than they were during the Reagan era.

"None of the information bore any ties to reality," says William D. Murray, the CIA's station chief in Paris until his retirement last year. Mr. Murray contends that Mr. Ghorbanifar wants to stoke a hard-line U.S. policy by suggesting that Iran's young population is pro-American and ready to rise up against Tehran's theocratic regime.

Others believe Mr. Ghorbanifar is on to something. Rep. Curt Weldon, a Pennsylvania Republican who is vice chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, published a book last year on Iran's terrorism threat after meeting in France with Messrs. Ghorbanifar and Mahdavi. The book, "Countdown to Terror," claims that Osama bin Laden was sheltered in a suburb of Tehran as recently as 2003 and that Iran hatched a plot to attack a New Hampshire nuclear power station that same year. The book was cited by politicians and pundits pressing for a tough stand against Iran.

Curt Weldon]" "I didn't create Ghorbanifar. The CIA created him," says Mr. Weldon. "But if the guy has information, I want to listen to him." In his book, Mr. Weldon says that Tehran's purported plot against the New Hampshire power plant "alone is a reason for a military response." The congressman writes that his Iranian exile sources, who go unnamed in the book, provided him "basically a blueprint for mounting a counter-revolution in Iran."

Is this actually true? would people actually rally around the repubs if the US attacked Iran.

Traditionally, yes.

Personally I am hoping people will understand the timing this time and not allow themselves to be influenced.

But I am an optimist

The Eisenhower group is due in the gulf this weekend.
Any news? Hints?

I've mentioned in other threads recently that BushCo. can't be too unhappy with N.K., it's a good distraction. While everyone is looking to Asia and wringing their hands, events can unfold in the gulf without too much attention.