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World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)

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World Energy 2014-2050: An Informal Annual Report

 “Political Economist” June 2014

The purpose of this informal report is to provide an analytical framework to track the development of world energy supply and demand as well as their impacts on the global economy. The report projects world supply of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, biofuels, and other renewable energies from 2014 to 2050.  It also projects the overall world energy consumption, gross world economic product, energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide emissions from 2014 to 2050.

The basic analytical tool is Hubbert Linearization, first proposed by American geologist M. King Hubbert.  Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics.  Other statistical methods and some official projections will also be used where they are relevant.

Oil

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world oil consumption (including crude oil, natural gas liquids, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and biofuels) reached 4,185 million metric tons (91.3 million barrels per day) in 2013, 1.4 percent higher than world oil consumption in 2012.  In 2013, oil consumption accounted for 32.9 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World oil production (including crude oil and natural gas liquids) reached 4,133 million metric tons (86.8 million barrels per day) in 2013, 0.6 percent higher than world oil production in 2012.  Figure 1 shows oil production by the world’s five largest oil producers from 1965 to 2013.

 photo Oil062014-1_zpsc4e13cc7.jpgAs of 2013, world “proved” oil reserves stood at 238 billion metric tons, 1.0 percent higher than the “proved” oil reserves in 2012.

In recent years, the US oil production has surged due to the “shale oil” boom.  The US accounted for all of the growth of world oil production from 2008 to 2013.  Figure 2 shows the historical and projected US oil production from 1950 to 2050.  The projection is based on the reference case scenario for US oil production from 2011 to 2040 projected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), extended to 2050 based on the trend from 2031 to 2040.  The EIA reference case projects the US oil production to peak in 2019, with a production level of 543 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-2_zps187c496f.jpg

Figure 3 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding the US) oil production.  As of 2013, the world (excluding the US) cumulative production of oil was 145 billion metric tons.  The linear trend from 1995 to 2013 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 309 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.964.

 photo Oil062014-3_zps1ef84a1c.jpg

Figure 4 shows the world (excluding the US) historical and projected oil production from 1950 to 2050.  The world (excluding the US) oil production is projected to peak in 2016, with a production level of 3,758 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-4_zps356b6e6a.jpg

Figure 5 shows the world historical and projected oil production.  The projected world oil production is the sum of the projected world (excluding the US) oil production and the projected US oil production.  World oil production is projected to peak in 2016, with a production level of 4,297 million metric tons.

 photo Oil062014-5_zpsbf13044a.jpg

Natural Gas

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world natural gas consumption reached 3,348 billion cubic meters (3,020 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 1.4 percent higher than world natural gas consumption in 2012.  In 2013, natural gas consumption accounted for 23.7 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World natural gas production reached 3,391 billion cubic meters (3,060 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 1.1 percent higher than world natural gas production in 2012.  Figure 6 shows natural gas production by the world’s five largest natural gas producers from 1970 to 2013.

 photo NaturalGas062014-1_zpsc1cf0271.jpgAs of 2013, world “proved” natural reserves stood at 186 trillion cubic meters, 0.2 percent higher than the “proved” natural gas reserves in 2012.

In recent years, the US natural gas production has surged due to the “shale gas” boom.  The US is the world’s largest natural gas producer, accounting for 20.5 percent of the world total production.  Figure 7 shows the historical and projected US natural gas production from 1950 to 2050.  The projection is based on the reference case scenario for the US natural gas production from 2011 to 2040 projected by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), extended to 2050 based on the trend from 2031 to 2040.  Based on the EIA projection, the US natural gas production will not peak before 2050.

 photo NaturalGas062014-2_zpsbbf85b41.jpg

Figure 8 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding the US) natural gas production.  As of 2013, the world (excluding the US) cumulative production of natural gas was 67 billion metric tons of oil-equivalent.  The linear trend from 1982 to 2013 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 203 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.859.

 photo NaturalGas062014-3_zps82c080a7.jpg

Figure 9 shows the world (excluding the US) historical and projected natural gas production from 1960 to 2050.  The world (excluding the US) natural gas production is projected to peak in 2027, with a production level of 2,786 million metric tons of oil-equivalent.

 photo NaturalGas062014-4_zps999443c0.jpg

Figure 10 shows the world historical and projected natural gas production.  The projected world natural gas production is the sum of the projected world (excluding the US) natural gas production and the projected US natural gas production.  World natural gas production is projected to peak in 2029, with a production level of 3,667 million metric tons of oil-equivalent.

 photo NaturalGas062014-5_zps955ac99e.jpg

Coal

According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, world coal consumption reached 3,827 million metric tons of oil-equivalent in 2013, 3.0 percent higher than world coal consumption in 2012.  In 2013, coal consumption accounted for 30.1 percent of the world primary energy consumption.

World coal production reached 7,896 million metric tons (3,881 million metric tons of oil-equivalent) in 2013, 0.8 percent higher than world coal production in 2012.  Figure 11 shows coal production by the world’s five largest coal producers from 1981 to 2013.

 photo Coal062014-1_zps13c6efd8.jpg

As of 2013, world coal reserves stood at 892 billion metric tons, 3.6 percent higher than the coal reserves in 2012.  The total increase in coal reserves by about 31 billion metric tons can be accounted for by the upward adjustment of reserves by Indonesia (an increase by 22 billion metric tons), Turkey (an increase by 6 billion metric tons), and Brazil (an increase by 2 billion metric tons).

China is the world’s largest coal producer, accounting for 47.4 percent of the world total production.  For many years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has reported China’s coal reserves to be 114.5 billion metric tons without update.  According to China’s Ministry of Land and Natural Resources, China’s coal “reserve base” was 230 billion metric tons as of 2012.  China’s cumulative coal production from 1896 to 2013 was 66 billion metric tons.  I assume that China’s ultimately recoverable coal resources will be 300 billion metric tons.

Figure 12 shows China’s historical and projected coal production from 1900 to 2100. China’s coal production is projected to peak in 2031, with a production level of 5,383 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-2_zps1d65f594.jpg

Figure 13 applies the Hubbert Linearization analysis to the world (excluding China) coal production.  The historical trajectory of the world (excluding China) coal production was complicated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to drastic declines of coal production in the 1990s.  A direct application of linear trend from 1950 to 2013 results in projected production levels significantly lower than the observed production levels for recent years.  A linear trend from 1950 to 1996 is used instead, yielding projected production levels similar to observed production levels for recent years.

 photo Coal062014-3_zps2298cfce.jpg

As of 2013, the world (excluding China) cumulative production of coal was 275 billion metric tons. The linear trend from 1950 to 1996 indicates the ultimately recoverable amount to be 736 billion metric tons.  Regression R-square is 0.626.

Figure 14 shows the world (excluding China) historical and projected coal production from 1900 to 2100.  The world (excluding China) coal production is projected to peak in 2035, with a production level of 4,551 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-4_zps0ed158fa.jpg

Figure 15 shows the world historical and projected coal production.  The projected world coal production is the sum of the projected world (excluding China) coal production and China’s projected coal production.  World coal production is projected to peak in 2031, with a production level of 9,922 million metric tons.

 photo Coal062014-5_zpsc5240e66.jpg

 

peak oil barrel



12 Comments on "World Energy 2014-2050 (Part 1)"

  1. Makati1 on Mon, 23rd Jun 2014 10:24 pm 

    More guesses …

  2. Arthur2 on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 2:17 am 

    If these graphs represent the reality, there is still some time to respond. It are these graphs that lay at the foundation of European energy policies, that assert that by 2050 Europe should have an 80% renewable energy base. It should be kept in mind though that these geology based graphs say nothing about price, an essential parameter for demand and thus in the end for production. Peak demand could precede peak energy. Another aspect not included in these projections is geopolitics. The world in 2050 will be totally different from today. The US, EU, Russia, China, Africa could be balkanized, a world full of war lords, not really promising conditions for a nice and tidy situation with secure pipelines, tankers, terminals and refineries. According to CNN, ISIS captured the largest refinery of Iraq as well as a powerstation supplying Bagdad. That’s just the beginning. It could very well be that Europe and even the US will be begging the Turks to take over the ME and provide order. Turks will reply: your wish is our command, sir.

  3. Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 5:01 am 

    Peak demand will come with a financial contraction. A financial collapse is possible but with the tools of financial repression in effect we may see a significant drop with the possibility of a reboot at a still functioning BAU level. This reboot could play out for a few years (5-10yr) before another more significant drop occurs as this rebooted BAU paradigm completely runs out of energy intensity and economic momentum. The rich have more wealth transfer to do. There is allot of cumulative wealth in a world of “peak everything”. We still have large amounts of energy in a peak demand situation. There is still the huge potential low hanging fruit for lifestyle adjustments. Allot of marginal population in developed countries and whole third world countries (Mak’s P’s) can be bid out of the game.

    Peak energy will follow shortly after the financial correction. All those new sources of production that are very expensive requiring complex extraction and long term financing will wither on the vine. Infrastructure decay and expertise attrition will compound this. All that needed investment for all those efforts from maintenance to new extraction cannot all be met when a society is at limits of growth within an environment of diminishing returns. National oil companies will come under increasing funding difficulties from social pressures. The requirements of the host countries for energy will drain the revenues from the national oil companies. The solid economic trend in the energy complex is increasing cost, decreasing capex, shrinking (net energy) production. Diminishing returns are effecting the ROI in new projects and the late stage efforts in older fields. Energy prices will be volatile because of the nature of supply/demand and descending economic activity levels. If we see a significant financial correction with a peak demand inflection we will surely see price pressure at least relative to what is needed to fund all those expensive energy efforts from extraction to the maintenance of the existing energy complex.

    What this situation consists of is a slow collapse and the initiation of the decent paradigm. In a decent paradigm the end of BAU will be near. A picture of the end of BAU would be a collapse to an economic and social level that will not allow the complexity needed to maintain the organs of the complex global system we see today. We will likely see a two speed decent but quick and sudden is always possible. The two speed decent is a BAU collapsing slowly (5-10yr) followed by a quick decent (3yr) to something post BAU. At this post BAU level fundamental changes will have occurred in trade, organization, and economic activity. This would include significant loss of infrastructure. This would likely include the end of the dominance of the car culture, complex technologies, FF energy intensity and food abundance. Residual BAU remains will surely sputter on especially in pockets.

    A post BAU will likely lead to a quick decline in population at first (minus 1BIL-10yr) and a gradual decline after the weak and helpless are triaged out of the equation (minus 3BIL-20yr). That may sound cruel but this ugly population adjustment is normally a natural phenomenon. A system never forced into a huge disequilibrium like we see today with BAU would have achieve this population adjustments gradually. This forcing through hyper growth, complex technology, and energy intensity has created a disequilibrium that will ensure an ugly population correction at some point.

  4. Lawfish on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 9:51 am 

    Davy, I enjoy reading what you write, but you always say “decent” when I think you mean “descent.”

  5. GregT on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 9:55 am 

    “Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics.”

    As usual, no consideration given to environmental limits. Human beings can survive without “technology, economics, and geopolitics”, but we will not survive well, without a healthy natural environment.

    More human exceptionalism in the belief that we are somehow above nature. Nothing could be further from the truth.

  6. Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 11:16 am 

    Sorry Law (noted). Humbly in my arrogance I admit I have intellectual defects with sentences, paragraphs, spelling, and grammar. In simpler terms I can’t write. It may have something to do with my dyslexia when I was younger and poor hearing. I know it is painful at times for those of you that are competent at English. I make a big effort to edit but I ramble on too much so mistakes get by. I also use the spell check too often without really looking hard if I grabbed the right word having poor reading vision now. Getting old is not for sissies. Surprisingly my mother was a 4.0 English major. I was 3.25 Finance major. That was back before PC’s. How the hell I got through school is beyond me.

  7. Arthur2 on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 11:24 am 

    Nah Davey, if Lawfish hadn’t brought it up, I would never have noticed. And my english is pretty descent.lol

  8. Kenz300 on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 12:18 pm 

    The world energy mix is in transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources.

    ————————-

    The Time for Wind and Solar Energy Is Now

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/05/the-time-for-wind-and-solar-energy-is-now

    —————————

    Can the Kochs Hold Back History? – NYTimes.com

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/09/opinion/egan-can-the-kochs-hold-back-history.html?emc=edit_th_20140509&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=21372621

  9. Lawfish on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 12:23 pm 

    No offense was intended, Davy. As I said, I enjoy your posts. I too was a finance major before computers (U of Arizona, class of 1987), but became a lawyer later in life.

  10. Davey on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 1:13 pm 

    None taken law. I appreciate being able to improve my writing. We all know the delivery is critical especially with females. I am probably a lost cause with English. Ooh, sorry about the previous post about lawyers. I have a dry sense of humor often disguised as serious. Good attorneys are priceless when you need them. I still standby the jab at economist. They are the devil’s excrement in my book.

  11. Tedman on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 6:53 pm 

    I take offense to your comment of economist? If you are going to scapegoat what about finance officers? Total scumbags in my opinion….What is the job of finance officer? To maximize shareholders wealth….this was drilled into me throughout school…I learned early on that you had to sell your soul to be rich in this world or be dumb as a rock thinking you are making the world a better place…very few have clean hands…

  12. Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 7:57 pm 

    Ted, finance managers are scum bags and I was a scum bag but not because I wanted to be but because that was all there was for me to do in the family business. I played my cards right and got out. I took a significant lifestyle cut. Now I live close to nature with a simpler life.

    Economist are perpetuating a message that is leading us to an ugly situation. Their message is being worshiped by the greedy to justify theft, corruption, and anti-social policies. The worst message is population growth is good. I made an extreme statement when in reality some economist provide some benefit to society. I am referring to the high priests of the pseudo-science quasi religion.

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