Peak Oil is You

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Page added on August 25, 2013

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Who said that peak oil models were wrong?

Who said that peak oil models were wrong? thumbnail

An impressive graphic (click to enlarge) from a recent presentation by Jean Laherrere. The text is partly in French, but it is easy to understand the main results of the study. In the figure above, we see how well the world’s oil production has followed the models over nine years. On this point, Laherrere says “There is little difference between the forecasts of 2004 and those of 2013. The difference is smaller than the precision of the measurements” A remarkable result that vindicates the soundness of the “peak oil” theory.

The main difference between today and nine years ago is the appearance in the picture of the “non conventional” resources. With these new resources, we may be able to stretch the availability of liquid fuels for some more years, as long as we’ll be able to pay their high costs. But we keep following the expected path and the news about the death of peak oil truly seem to be a bit exaggerated.

Cassandra’s Legacy

13 Comments on "Who said that peak oil models were wrong?"

  1. actioncjackson on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 6:59 pm 

    Seeing those charts should make everyone in here feel like vomiting. We’re at the top of the roller coaster, all that’s left is the gut wrenching plunge to come.

  2. rollin on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 7:54 pm 

    Wind powered ships and solar powered horses. Here we go, it’s deja vu all over again. Finally get those buggy whip factories back on line.

  3. mike on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 8:24 pm 

    If it weren’t for those pesky nuclear power plants I would be genuinely exited be be moving towards the edge of the roller-coaster drop. Think of all the stories and changes we could have seen, the heroes and villains, the changes in narrative and consciousness, the new religions and art and philosophies. The collapse of industrial civilization doesn’t scare me one bit, it excites me, I just hope they can decommission those plants in time.

  4. noobtube on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 10:24 pm 

    That’s got me concerned too.

    What happens to the nuclear power plants in a post peak world?

    Are we looking at the end of the Western world through nuclear meltdown?

    It’s kind of fitting I suppose.

    Done in by the very technology that is supposed to show you are the superior/master race.

  5. JB on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 11:27 pm 

    Nuclear plants? This article is about oil guys. If we factor in ERoEI, ROI, and factor out queered data, the world is now past the peak, and on the down slope.
    Non-conventional fuels won’t help that much.

  6. bobinget on Sun, 25th Aug 2013 11:35 pm 

    Rather then firing up a doobie and curling up in fetal position, I prefer to believe peak
    oil, water, soils, opens up vast opportunities for invention. In ‘materials science’ alone we see a future
    quite different then today, but quite livable.

    We are survivors… After all, what’s so bad about sail assisted freighters?

    The fact that ‘peak oil’ and effects of ‘climate change’ seem to forming that perfect storm, leaves more then enough room for innovation, discovery, even contrivance.

  7. BillT on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 1:25 am 

    Material science needs materials to function. Materials are also in short supply and they require huge energy input to be brought to market. Think about the whole picture, not part of it.

    Name ONE thing that you use regularly that does NOT require oil input somewhere in its lifetime. Bet you can’t.

  8. Plantagenet on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 2:12 am 

    As oil runs out we’ll shift to natural gas. In fact it is already happening

  9. mike on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 7:55 am 

    You’re probably right platagent, but we will we see the price of NG sky rocket at that point and we’ll be in the same scenario except with 5 years of NG supplies left instead, an even worse economy and countries ravaged by climate change. It’s called catabolic collapse.

  10. dashster on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 8:46 am 

    “The collapse of industrial civilization doesn’t scare me one bit, it excites me”

    Can you give a description of your life and the life of others after the collapse of industrial civilization?

  11. dashster on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 8:48 am 

    “As oil runs out we’ll shift to natural gas. In fact it is already happening”

    According to the Energy Watch Group, the world is facing more than Peak Oil. Also Peak Coal and Peak Gas in about a decade.

  12. TIKIMAN on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 12:44 pm 

    Plantagenet –

    Do you think people have the money to convert cars to natural gas? Does anyone have the money to build thousands of natural gas terminals for cars? So many manufactured goods require oil, Natural gas will do nothing.

    Of course we are peaking, the oil from ND is all shale. The easy light crude is gone, all thats left is stuff that costs 100+ a barrel to extract.

  13. Arthur on Mon, 26th Aug 2013 6:18 pm 

    In 2030 we will have about the amount of oil we have now. A lot of renewable energy sources will be built until 2030. The situation is not necessarily hopeless, but certainly a challenge.

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