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Page added on July 4, 2018

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USA and World Oil Production

USA and World Oil Production thumbnail

All data below is from various sources. All US data is from the EIA. Unless otherwise noted is in thousand barrels per day.

USA data is through April. C+C production was almost flat in April, down 2,000 bpd.

Texas through April. Texas production was up 30,000 bpd in April.

North Dakota through April. North Dakota production was up 61,000 bpd in April.

Alaska through April. Alaska production was down 15,000 bpd in April.

The Gulf of Mexico through April. The GOM was down 98,000 bpd in April.

USA net imports averaged over 12,500 bpd in 2005 and 2006. They are now down to around 3,400 bpd.

China data through March from the EIA.

Canada through March, EIA.

Mexico through March, EIA.

Norway and the U.K. through March. I have included historical data here in order to show the total decline from their peaks around the turn of the century. There has been a recent uptick in production from both countries.

Data for this chart is from the Russian Minister of Energy and is through June. Russian production was up 89,000 bpd in June.

World production through March. World C+C production was down 305,000 bpd in March.

World less USA through March. Without the US input, World C+C would have been down 520,000 bpd in March if the EIA’s figures are correct.

Non-OPEC production was down 63,000 bpd in March.

Without US production Non-OPEC would have been down 278,000 bpd in March.

Thanks to Dr. Minqi Li, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Utah for that fantastic post: World Energy 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 1)

I don’t do natural gas or coal but I do have a few comments on his oil numbers. In the table below I have converted metric tons to barrels using 7.33 barrels per ton. All data is in billion barrels. I have calculated cumulative production by subtracting RRR from URR. Even though their estimate of URR may be highly inflated, and I believe it is, this makes no difference because they calculated RRR by simply subtracting cumulative production from their estimate of URR. I simply reversed that process.

All data is crude plus natural gas liquids. Of course, that includes condensate.

I think the EIA data for the US is highly inflated. They are grossly overestimating the input from shale oil here. The BP data for OPEC, obviously what BP has done here is just to take each OPEC nation’s word for their reserves. I have no comment on their Canadian numbers.

The Hubbert Linearity method was fairly accurate before the age of creaming. As long as conventional wells were used, the Hubbert method gave you a pretty good estimate of URR. And you could also calculate the probable decline rate with the Hubbert method. But no more. A field is creamed by massive infill drilling with horizontal wells that skim the very top of the reservoir. The decline rate is then drastically reduced while the depletion rate is drastically increased. Things will go just great until the water hits those horizontal wells at the top of the reservoir. Then production will drop like a rock.

Daqing was creamed. A UPI article from December 2014, China’s largest inland oil field depleting, had this comment.

The field has produced more than 15 billion barrels since operations began in 1960. Last year’s annual production was around 290 million barrels, though that should fall to around 234 million barrels by 2020, the employee at PetroChina said in an interview published Sunday.

In 2015 Daqing produced about 800,000 barrels per day. If it were to produce 234 million barrels in 2020 then that would be about 640,000 barrels per day or a decline of about 160,000 bpd. Looking at the chart below I think those figures are extremely optimistic.

China’s production has dropped by over 400,000 barrels per day in the last three years. And the lions share of that decline has to be Daqing.

In the table below I have converted the data Dr. Minqi Li presented in metric tons per year to million barrels per day. Again, this is C+C plus natural gas liquids.

The source for this chart is the same as the table above. I believe due to OPEC massively inflating their URR, and the inaccuracy of the Hubbert method due to the creaming of all giant fields, the expected peak dates here are highly inaccurate. Well, all except three. The rest of the world did peak in 2004, China did peak in 2015, and the world will peak by 2021 or before. Congratulations to Dr. Minqi Li, the most accurate future peak there is the one that he calculated.

Peak Oil Barrel by Ron Patterson



18 Comments on "USA and World Oil Production"

  1. Antius on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 5:36 pm 

    Darn. I was hoping for at least a few extra years before the world falls apart.

    Looks like the date of peak oil is entirely dependant upon when US tight oil stops rising. That seems like a poor thing to bet our lives on, especially with the fed shrinking US money supply the way it is. I wonder if that is factored into the tight oil production prediction? I doubt it.

  2. Boat on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:42 pm 

    Antius

    Interest rates are still very cheap. Canada is growing oil sands.Their rig counts are jumping as well. The Saudi claim to have a couple mbpd in capacity. Lybia and Nigeria may find peace when importers explain to disrupters their survival depends on oil flowing.

  3. Boat on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 10:43 pm 

    An April report and it’s July. Did mm write this?

  4. MASTERMIND on Wed, 4th Jul 2018 11:05 pm 

    BP questions pace of US tight oil growth as productivity fades –Platts

    “It does perhaps suggest that the very rapid increases in tight oil productivity that characterized much of the initial phase of the shale revolution may be beginning to fade,” Dale said.

    “More recently, increasing bottlenecks within the supply chain, together with signs that investors are becoming less willing to finance continued high levels of investment, suggest there may be some limits to the speed with which tight oil can grow going forward,” he said.

    https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/061318-bp-questions-pace-of-us-tight-oil-growth-as-productivity-fades

    Looks like Shale might have peaked..

  5. Chico on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 8:34 am 

    additional pipeline capacity in Permian is practically nonexistent. Several operators have mentioned that the frac market is getting “soft”. Thats not a good sign! No where to take your product once you complete your well.

  6. Sissyfuss on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 9:42 am 

    Big Rocketman, what is your take on Pattersons view that creaming turns upside down the basics of reservoir capacity? He seems to be saying that taking measurements from the top as you fill the underside with water cut gives the illusion that the reservoir is aways full until the water reaches the straw. Or am I completely daft in my assessment?

  7. BobInget on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 10:03 am 

    One minute ago:

    Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 29, 2018

    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.7 million barrels per day during the week
    ending June 29, 2018, which was 163,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s
    average. Refineries operated at 97.1% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
    production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel
    production increased last week, averaging 5.5 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 699,000
    barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports
    averaged about 8.4 million barrels per day, 6.6% more than the same four-week period
    last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
    blending components) last week averaged 648,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel
    imports averaged 92,000 barrels per day.

    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
    Reserve) increased by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.9 million
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time
    of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and
    are about 6% above the five year range. Finished gasoline and blending components
    inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.1 million
    barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.
    Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week and are about
    10% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum
    inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels last week.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per
    day, up by 1.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline
    product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period
    last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the
    past four weeks, down by 3.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied
    was down 5.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

  8. BobInget on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 10:10 am 

    Key points;

    Imports much higher.
    Crude inventories RISE by 1.2 M B
    Total products CONSUMED up 700, B p/d since
    last week @ 20.9 B p/d. 1.4 % over last year.

    Oh, BTW, we are exporting our way to DoomTown.
    Crude from shale turns out to be great looking
    because it’s so thin.

  9. BobInget on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 10:28 am 

    Additional pipeline capacity ANYWHERE is deeply limited. (Chico)

    Which is why in this period of oil disinvestment
    I’m stickin w/pipelines. Consumption of coal
    may be ending but NG and Oil are showing slight gains.

    The longer oil share prices stay low, the longer
    in will take, (maybe never) to improve DOMESTIC
    production.

    The only solution now is to offer Alberta statehood and fucked up health care.
    Any hint of Alberta leaving will prompt more pipelines so Canada can export outside the US.

  10. rockman on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 10:56 am 

    Sissy – “He seems to be saying that taking measurements from the top as you fill the underside with water cut gives the illusion that the reservoir is aways full until the water reaches the straw. Or am I completely daft in my assessment?” Not sure if I follow both of you. So just a short explanation of a conventional water drive reservoir. If one has enough well control you can make a fairly good estimate of INPLACE RESERVES. Now how about RECOVERABLE RESERVES? Not so easy. If there are similar DEPLETED RESERVOIRS in the trend AND they have a similar production history one can use that RECOVERY FACTOR. The RF can run from 20% to 60%.

    The key to the SWEEP EFFICIANCE how soon the water production reaches the perforations in the producing wells. Once water begins being produced with the oil in a well. Maybe he talking about only perforating the top few feet in a completion. That delays the water production but also often reduces the oil flow rate you get out of a well. Speaking of which if you flow a well at too high a rate you can prematurely “cone” water production. IOW start producing sooner then if you had produced the oil slower. Once you cone the water it’s difficult to impossible to fix the problem.

    And if you don’t have similar reservoirs to model? Just take a guess and be prepared to be wrong. Sometimes very wrong. LOL.

    Let me know if that doesn’t clear things up.

  11. MASTERMIND on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 11:30 am 

    Is there anything Elon can’t do?

    Elon Musk offers to help rescue the Thai soccer team stuck in a cave

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/33c4f8a1-6bfc-377b-bd15-88902f260a93/ss_elon-musk-offers-to-help.html

  12. MASTERMIND on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 11:56 am 

    Press F to Gulag instantly.

    https://i.redd.it/denqh2qdz2811.jpg

  13. onlooker on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 1:20 pm 

    Is there anything Elon can’t do?—
    A modern day snakeoil salesman
    Re: Thai situation, they should politely decline his offer

  14. deadly on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 11:35 pm 

    29716, the total number of electromotive train engines in service throughout the rail systems in the US alone.

    Those train engines have fuel tanks from one thousand gallons to 5500 gallons.

    If each engine uses 5000 gallons each month on the average, a total of 3.5 million barrels of diesel fuel will be consumed each month or about 42 million barrels required each year of diesel fuel for train engines to pull rolling stock, coal cars and grain shipments, steel, finished goods.

    The diesel fuel tanks don’t magically fill themselves and are always full.

    Not in the real world.

    An A380 has a fuel tank that holds almost 320,000 liters. More than 80,000 gallons of jet fuel.

    A Boeing 747 has a fuel tank that holds more than 48,000 gallons and burns one gallon per second.

    45,000 seconds of air travel at 550 mph, it can go 6875 miles and spend 12.5 hours in the air. 45,000/60/60=12.5 hours of flying time.

    You have to land before you run out of fuel, you’ll need a 3000 gallon reserve, just a guess.

    Train engines burn the diesel fuel, the tanks need to be filled, more all of the time if the trains roll hither and yon. At 200 gallons per hour under full power, a thousand gallons will last five hours. At 60 mph, you can go 300 miles for every thousand gallons burned. The train engine that will do that job will have a five thousand gallon tank, 5000/200=25 hours of travel time for a train under full power pulling the hundred cars of coal or grain.

    If there are three engines, that is fifteen thousand gallons of diesel fuel to travel 60 times 25 equals fifteen hundred miles or ten gallons of fuel consumed for each mile the train travels down the track.

    In 25 hours of service, all of the engines that have diesel fuel tanks of 5,000 gallons each will need a new 5000 gallons of diesel fuel.

    Cars and trucks use fuel too.

    A cargo ship will burn 422 ton of bunker fuel and will go some 4600 nautical miles.

    With oil, all that does happen. With no oil, it all stops.

    Deep decarbonization is pie-in-the-sky fantasy, hallucinating heavily.

  15. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 12:32 am 

    “Deep decarbonization is pie-in-the-sky fantasy, hallucinating heavily.”

    Humanity will muddle on fine without 380/747.

    We now have the means to make travelling superfluous. You can have intercontinental communication (insults.lol) via a wire, this board serves as a living proof. You can admire the Taj Mahal on Youtube from all angles, without having to stand in line for hours in the burning sun with thousands of other sweating tourists. I’m daily on Skype, video-conferencing with Indian engineers, located in India, working on the same IT-project I do.

    Travelling, including commuting, is so 20th century.

  16. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 1:39 am 

    Exactly cloggberg. Hey, can you pray at the wailing wall, bobbing your head up and down like a parrot, muttering and chanting to yourself, all from the comfort of, whatever fraud-mill it is you’ve are broadcasting from?

  17. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 2:04 am 

    Ssssst mouse1, don’t be a spoiler and reveal to an unsuspecting world I have been posting from Israel all along. Nobody fools you, eh?

    /rolleyes

  18. dissident on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 6:41 pm 

    Since the second US peak is not going to last long and OPEC is basically entering its decline stage, we can expect global decline by the middle 2020s.

    People were looking for the “peak year”. For a production history lasting over 150 years in the ramp-up stage, this period is way too short. A roughly 20 year window will enclose the peak. The so-called debunked peak oil pundits had it right that 2010-20 would be the peak period if you want to define it with some running mean.

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