Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on December 23, 2017

Bookmark and Share

Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking

Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking thumbnail

We’re running out of new oil.

Explorers in 2017 discovered the least amount of oil since at least the 1940s, according to Rystad Energy, an oil and gas consultancy.

It estimated that less than seven billion barrels of oil equivalent were found this year through Thursday. Some energy companies will announce more discoveries next year in their 2017 annual reports, but Rystad expects this to increase the 2017 total by 10% at most.

New discoveries have fallen every year since 2014, when oversupply triggered an oil crash that cut its price by more than half. The plunge forced many upstream oil producers to reduce their spending, and helps explain why discoveries are also down.

But that’s not the only reason: explorers are finding less oil resources per field, according to Rystad. An average offshore discovery held about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2017, down from 150 million boe in 2012.

The last time oil and gas companies added to their reserves by as much as they were producing was in 2006, when the so-called reserve replacement ratio reached 100%. It was down to 50% in 2012, and 11% in 2017.

This doesn’t mean we’re about to run out of crude oil. Major producers including the US have emergency reserves. Moreover, the industry’s headache for the past few years has been too much oil. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a cartel of big producers, has agreed to deal with the oversupply problem by cutting output until the end of 2018.

Also, there are usually a few years in between when an oil firm makes a large discovery and when it’s ready for production. That means we can count on recent discoveries to keep our engines running for some time.

And there were some major discoveries this year, like the 1 billion barrels found off the coast of Mexico by Premier Oil, Talos Energy, and Sierra Oil & Gas.

But if oil discoveries continue trending down, we could be talking seriously about oil shortages in about a decade from now, Rystad estimates.

“While there have been some notable successes this year, we have to face the fact that the low discovered volumes on global level represent a serious threat to the supply levels some ten years down the road,” said Sonia Mladá Passos, a senior analyst at Rystad, in a press release.

20171221_DiscoveredResourcesPR.JPG Rystad Energy

Business Insider



29 Comments on "Oil discoveries are at an all-time low — and the clock is ticking"

  1. MASTERMIND on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 2:55 pm 

    As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    https://imgur.com/a/DVSNt
    https://imgur.com/a/5hpQu

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA

  2. MASTERMIND on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 3:02 pm 

    Whenever there is an article that actually talks about peak oil. It gets zero comments on this board of cucks!

  3. Cloggie on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 3:21 pm 

    20:00 Dutch news. Government policy of reducing CO2 emissions by 50% in 2030 is going to cost every burger 50-60 euro per month. After 2030 cost will increase even more. Only after completion of the transition in 2050 will the costs come down again.

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2208973-het-klimaat-wat-kost-dat-jou-in-2030.html

  4. Harquebus on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 3:34 pm 

    To my mind, peak oil was circa 2005 when conventional production peaked. When the compensating debt bubble bursts, the consequences of ignoring this phenomenon will be suddenly and shockingly visible with no easy way out.

  5. Boat on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 6:51 pm 

    Considering I just paid $2.04 per gal of gasoline and the car is running fine, the peak of conventional oil seems to have little effect on the market.

  6. Boat on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 6:55 pm 

    MM

    The US will take care oil demand into 2020 if prices remain at 57 and up. NP

  7. MASTERMIND on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 7:37 pm 

    Boat

    You are paying close to more than double the post WW2 price for oil and gasoline. 25 dollars a barrel and 1.25 gallon (Inflation Adjusted).And if you subtract the four years of the 70’s oil shocks its around 19 barrel or 1.00 gasoline. You are energy illiterate. And conventional supplies make up around 80 percent of our total supplies. And according to the HSBC study this year for supplies to meet demands through 2040 we would have to discover and bring online 5 1/3 new Saudi Arabia’s worth of oil to make up for conventional supplies declining Yes only 5 1/2 new Saudis to discover and get going! Chop Chop!

    https://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

  8. DMyers on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 7:55 pm 

    Harquebus should be considered for the “Terse, Tight and Related” award this week for his Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 3:34 pm.

    The relation of new coming in and old going out is a fairly mundane consideration. In other words, a child would probably recognize the importance of that particular balance. New coming in may be more, the same, or less than the existing out. When it registers less, bells, whistles, and sirens should sound the alarm.

    It’s not something that was just realized. I’ve been reading for years about a relative decline in new oil discoveries over a thirty or forty year span. And forget that trillion barrels out of California that turned out to be a couple of billion, at best. Isn’t this the definition of unsustainable, where more is going out than is coming in?

    The popular response, which has buried the phenomenon in irrelevance, is that any day now they’ll figure out a way to find new oil. It’s a job for new technologies. Already, we’re drowning in a glut because of new tech. It only gets better from here.

    I’m expecting a “petroleum divining rod” that will locate pockets of oil that are probably everywhere. It will look like a bobbing pterodactyl right off a Thanksgiving day parade float. The divined oil will be attacked by the multi-armed oil suckers, and it will be gone before you know it. You just keep moving on. The divining rod leads, and we follow. It’s a spiritual thing, to be honest. I’m ready to believe.

  9. Boat on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 8:59 pm 

    MM

    The average American pays less than $2000 for their gasoline. Chump change. The $30,000 for the ride with insurance etc is where the costs are at.

  10. Boat on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 9:09 pm 

    MM

    The first point of your link states oil coming into balance in 2017. Lol did they miss the OPRC/Russia cuts equaling 1.8 mbpd?

  11. Boat on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 9:22 pm 

    MM

    Your link suggests oil demand of 1 mbpd till 2040. EV/electric will cause peak oil closer to 2030. The writing is on the wall. HSNC needs to do a little research along with you.

  12. _________________ on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 11:13 pm 

    The dutch produce more co2 by smoking pot than by all other sources combined. I guess all cryophiliacs are scared of relocating from a retarded, bellow sea level country. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

  13. MASTERMIND on Sat, 23rd Dec 2017 11:58 pm 

    Boat

    EV’S are just a fad and if they knock off some oil demand the price of oil will go down and then people and industries who use oil will buy more of it. And the demand will rise back up again. Jevons Paradox…You are energy illiterate and peak oil ignorant.

  14. DerHundistlos on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 12:04 am 

    “there were some major discoveries this year, like the 1 billion barrels found off the coast of Mexico by Premier Oil, Talos Energy, and Sierra Oil & Gas.”

    One billion barrels sounds like enough to supply the world for years; however, based on current consumption patterns this “major discovery” of 1 bbl. will supply the world’s oil needs for 10 days.

  15. Boat on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 12:28 am 

    Rystad Energy claims 70 years of oil at today’s usage. We have no idea how much climate change will disrupt all markets. EV potential is a huge guess along with everything else. There is no expert that knows geopolitics future. But lack of oil for decades is bs.

  16. Boat on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 12:33 am 

    The US went from 3% of world reserves to the world’s largest all with fracking. The rest of the world doesn’t even know their tracking potential yet. Big data is in it’s infancy when it comes to finding oil. You no tech doomers keep dreaming of collapse while the rest of us keep living.

  17. Boat on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 12:39 am 

    Der Hind

    Does the Permian which has been drilled for decades give you a clue to existing reserves ? Yes they decided to add about 20 billion to them. Not at $100 per barrel but at $50.

  18. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:03 am 

    Global Oil Discoveries peaked in the 60s (exact year anyone?) so we’ve actually had a fantastic run of 55 years before peak in 2005.

    But a number of factors have delayed peak oil from striking in a massive way (e.g. die-off, grid collapse, et al) – none of which have been illuminated by idiots like Boat.

    I’ll give a few examples as a way to educate that rubes, but it will clearly not be exhaustive.

  19. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:05 am 

    FACTOR #1 that blunted COLOSSAL impact of peak conventional oil.

    US corn crop for ethanol went from 6% in 2000 to 40% in 2016.

    Marginal lands have been converted to grow corn for ethanol, something that wasn’t supposed to happen (destroys wetlands and grasslands that support diversity – see bananapocalypse).

    EROEI might not be great for ethanol, but if you double or triple the cost of corn and soybeans for the average (global) rube then that pays for that diminished energy return.

    https://smarterfuelfuture.org/blog/details/the-three-ways-lowering-the-ethanol-mandate-would-help-the-environment/

  20. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:12 am 

    FACTOR #2:

    Europeean Oil consumption DROPPED or remained flat from 2005 to 2014 (at least – since then?). Efficiencies and (at times) a weakened economy and a shift of manufacturing to developing countries have been factors.

    US oil consumption is also down from 2007 levels – financial crises, increases in efficiencies, switch to hybrids.

    Can these savings be duplicated a second time with EVs? Or is China, India and others expected to stop increasing consumption of oil? Because one of those things has to happen in the next ten years or we are back to 2007 with consumption overtaking production.

  21. Davy on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:17 am 

    “EROEI might not be great for ethanol, but if you double or triple the cost of corn and soybeans for the average (global) rube then that pays for that diminished energy return.”

    Corn has not doubled and tripled in price is the problem with factor #1. It has fluctuated in price for many reasons over the years mostly related to global demand and the commodity supercycle.

  22. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:23 am 

    FACTOR #3

    WHILE ALL THE ABOVE WAS HAPPENING!!

    We also had a MOON-SHOT development of oil sands and shale oil, blending the condensates with heavy oil from overseas and calling it “WTI”. Highly unprofitable but hey, when its the fate of industrial civilization on the line, does debt really matter?

    Again, 2000 to 2015 (give or take) was the large ramp up there, along with ethanol, deep-sea, efficiencies, and a massive global recession, mapping tech, and on and on. So we just have to double each of those things about 3 or 4 more times from now until 2035 – 2050 and we’ll be fine.

  23. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:28 am 

    “Corn has not doubled and tripled in price is the problem with factor #1. It has fluctuated in price for many reasons over the years mostly related to global demand and the commodity supercycle.”

    I’ve watched soy milk prices double and periods of high corn prices and meat prices (feed stock price increases) for the past decade. Costs of all those things have gone up. Yes, there is also global climate breakdown and other factors.

    My point is – we’ve put (most) marginal lands into production already so that might be hard to reproduce AND we are already using 40% OF ALL CORN FOR ETHANOL!! How many more barrels will we get if we go to 60% or 80% and what will that do to the cost of the corn you’re going to fire up on the grill??

    So now, no “problem” with factor #1. It’s completely unsustainable trend.

  24. twocats on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:33 am 

    The collision course between food and fuel is a real one and its happening.

    exports of corn have been relatively flat – so there goes your “global demand” thesis. And the commodity supercycle is just a reflection of inflation due to peak oil. It’s almost as if you really don’t understand peak oil dynamics. which is sad because you spend a fuck-ton of time commenting on this blog.

    Yep, absolutely no price increase since 2005 of corn, none whatsoever.

    http://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2017/02/u-s-corn-exports-mexico-will-policy-rhetoric-turn-concrete-action/

  25. Davy on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 8:38 am 

    “exports of corn have been relatively flat – so there goes your “global demand” thesis.”
    What thesis? Didn’t know I posted a global demand thesis. If anything I am calling for demand destruction for systematic reasons of diminishing returns to growth i.e. unmanageable deb and bad debt.

    And the commodity super cycle is just a reflection of inflation due to peak oil.
    Nonsense, commodity super cycle has been a direct result of the tremendous credit creation by China and its enormous construction binge since the last finacial crisis. If anything peak oil dynamics of price have been subdued by this Chinese super growth and the resulting overproduction of unconventionals called the glut. I am a firm believer in peak oil but not that peak oil is the only dynamic these days.

    “It’s almost as if you really don’t understand peak oil dynamics.”
    You mind elaborating a bit Einstein or are you just pissed because I chose to debate you.

    “which is sad because you spend a fuck-ton of time commenting on this blog.”
    Fuck ton of time commenting? How much is a fuck ton? Is that the amount that pisses your dumbass off? LOL. Go bark at everyone else here that comments a fuck ton. You are just pissed because you drop in on occasion to be someone but don’t want to be debated. You want to be agreed with. Man up pussy, how about being someone with good posts.

    “Yep, absolutely no price increase since 2005 of corn, none whatsoever.”
    Yep, where did I say no increase in corn prices? You are the one who said doubled and tripled. It is a little more nuanced than doubling and tripling.

  26. Mark on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 11:59 am 

    The Rystad est sounds like a fantasy. Every molecule of oil in the ground will be recovered and it’ll remain nice and inexpensive.

  27. tommywantshismommy on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 4:07 pm 

    The masses won’t jump to electric until fuel prices skyrocket. Everyone i know drives a crossover or a pickup. No one seems to be interested in EVs…fuel prices must go up..a lot.

  28. Go Speed Racer on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 5:10 pm 

    When Trump’s Tax Cut for the Rich
    is enacted, Jesus Christ will return
    to Earth and refill the oil wells
    for us.

    This is why it’s important
    to pass that legislation and help
    the rich people have more money.

  29. Apneaman on Sun, 24th Dec 2017 7:36 pm 

    GSR, no worries. Trump & his cancer crew can roll out legislation to support/subsidize oil exploration in the name of national security – who’s gonna stop them?

    Apparently, Trump has a whole bunch of Republican party faithful geologists ready to do their duty – Top men.

    America’s best geologists to the rescue.

    Christian geologist claims fossilized tree stumps in Antarctica prove Biblical account of Great Flood

    http://www.christiandaily.com/article/christian-geologist-claims-fossilized-tree-stumps-in-antarctica-prove-biblical-account-of-great-flood/61691.htm

    Top scientist

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *