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Crude Oil: Abundance Wins Over Depletion Theory

Geology

While some observers, including oil giant BP, are now predicting a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production as wells are depleted at a faster rate, to be replaced by Middle Eastern output that has lost ground to U.S. sha..

By Andrew Topf

In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel.

The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it. “Why the World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller” forecast a sea change in the global economy, all driven by unsustainably high oil prices, where domestic manufacturing is reinvigorated at the expense of seaborne trade and people’s choices become driven by the ever-increasing prices of fossil fuels.

In the book, Rubin dedicates an entire chapter to the changing oil supply picture, with his main argument being that oil companies “have their hands between the cushions” looking for new oil, since all the easily recoverable oil is either gone or continues to be depleted – at the rate of around 6.7% a year (IEA figures). “Even if the depletion rate stops rising, we must find nearly 20 million barrels a day of new production over the next five years simply to keep global production at its current level,” Rubin wrote, adding that the new oil will match the same level of consumption in 2015, as five years earlier in 2010. In other words, new oil supplies can’t keep up with demand.

Of course, Rubin at the time was talking about conventional oil – land-based and undersea oil – as well as unconventional oil sands. The shale oil “revolution” in the United States that took off soon after the publication of his book has certainly changed the supply picture, and the recent collapse in oil prices has forced Rubin to eat his words. With U.S. shale oil production soaring from 600,000 barrels a day in 2008 to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2014, the United States over the past few years has flooded the market with new oil from its shale formations, including the Eagle Ford in South Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total U.S. production (conventional and unconventional) will increase to 9.3 million barrels a day this year, the most since 1972.

While some observers, including oil giant BP, are now predicting a slowdown in U.S. shale oil production as wells are depleted at a faster rate, to be replaced by Middle Eastern output that has lost ground to U.S. shale, the thesis posed by Jeff Rubin in 2008, that the world is running out of oil, seems to have changed to: Is the world swimming in oil?

In this continuing climate of abundant oil production, Oilprice.com sought to find out where the new oil will be found. The data could be used in a further analysis to determine whether an oversupplied market will continue to depress oil prices into the future – or whether a price correction is likely given a tightening of the market on the supply side.

According to a 2013 report by Wood Mackenzie, the world holds 1.4 trillion barrels of oil equivalent oil and gas reserves, with the Middle East, Latin America, North America and Africa identified as the key regions for future oil plays.

Of course, many of the new fields are uneconomic at current prices, so it is instructive to look at the largest oil fields to see where oil producers are likely to keep pumping, even though many of these fields are in decline.

They include Ghawar and Safaniya in Saudi Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, and Rumalia and West Qurna-2 in Iraq. These five fields were named the most important by Oilprice.com in an article last June. Ghawar, the world’s largest field, has an estimated 70 billion barrels of remaining reserves, more than all but seven other countries, according to the EIA. In production since the 1950s, it continues to produce at 5 million barrels a day.

If you noticed the dominance of the Middle East in this list, you’d be right. Current estimates have over 80 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves located in OPEC member countries, with Middle Eastern reserves comprising 65 percent of the OPEC total.

Adding to the Oilprice.com list, Forbes named Majnoon in Iraq, Khuzestan (also the name of a province) in Iran, Kashagan in the Caspian Sea, Khurais in Saudi Arabia, the Tupi field offshore Brazil, Carabobo in Venezuela’s Orinoco heavy oil belt, and the North Slope of Alaska among its top 10 fields of the future.

Fortune places the Orinoco belt in Venezuela among its six largest untapped fields, at an eye-watering 513 billion barrels of recoverable crude. In comparison the Chicontapec Basin in Mexico, also on the list, is a Lilliputian at 10 billion barrels. Others include the Santos and Campos Basins in offshore Brazil, at 123 billion barrels, the Supergiant field in the southwest desert of Iraq, at between 45 and 100 billion barrels, and the Jubilee Field in Ghana, estimated to contain 1.8 billion barrels of recoverable crude.

The Canadian oil sands should of course also be included in the matrix of future oil supply. Despite the difficulty and higher-cost, compared to conventional sources, of stripping the bitumen from the oil sands and processing it into heavy oil, the vastness of the reserves contained in the sands of northern Alberta cannot be underestimated. According to the Alberta government the oil sands has proven reserves of about 168 billion barrels, the third largest proven crude oil reserve in the world, after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Canadian oil sands production is forecasted to grow from about 2 million barrels per day to 3.7 million barrels per day by 2020 and 5.2 million barrels per day by 2030, according to Alberta Energy.

Many have pointed to the Arctic as the answer to the depletion of existing oil and gas fields. The region, which crosses Russia, Alaska, Norway and Greenland, is estimated to hold 166 billion barrels of oil equivalent, more oil and gas than Iran and enough to meet the world’s entire consumption of crude oil for five years, reported The Daily Telegraph.

Drilling down a bit further, the US Geological Survey estimates that over 87% of the Arctic’s oil and gas resources are located in seven Arctic basin provinces: Arctic Alaska Basin, East Barents Basin, East Greenland Basin, West Greenland East Canada Basin, East Greenland Rift Basin, West Siberian Basin and the Yenisey-Khatang Basin.

The Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska, which has been pumping oil since 1977, is the largest oil field in North America, at about 25 billion barrels. Around 16 percent of the Arctic’s undiscovered oil and gas is located on land, with the remaining potential either locked in continental shelves or underwater at depths over 500 meters.

Of the seven basins outlined by the USGS, the most abundant is Arctic Alaska, at 29.36 billion barrels of crude oil, followed by the Amerasia Basin, at 9.72 billon, and the East Greenland Rift Basin at 8.90 billion, according to Geology.com.

Among the oil majors eyeing the Arctic prize, Shell has been drilling off the coast of Alaska for decades, Statoil is active in the Norwegian Arctic, and ExxonMobil is exploring with Russia’s Rosneft in the Russian far north. Last year Rosneft/ ExxonMobil discovered a field that could hold up to 730 million barrels of oil, but for the time being, exploration looks thin. With low oil prices, most oil companies are reining in capital costs, and exploration expenditures are a high-priority line item. Statoil and Chevron have both put their Arctic plans on ice, and the ExxonMobil partnership with Rosneft could be in trouble due to Western sanctions against Russia. Shell is currently the only company sinking any capital into the Arctic, with the Anglo-Dutch firm announcing at the end of January that it plans to proceed with a $1-billion Arctic drilling this summer.

And what of the shale oil reserves that have propelled the United States to becoming close to energy-independent and threaten to knock Saudi Arabia off its pedestal as the world’s top oil producer? In 2013, the EIA conducted the first-ever U.S. analysis of global shale oil reserves. It estimated “technically recoverable” (as opposed to economically recoverable) shale oil resources of 345 billion barrels in 42 countries, the equivalent of 10 percent of global crude oil supplies – and enough to cover over a decade of oil consumption.

According to the EIA, Russia and the United States have the largest shale oil resources, at a respective 75 billion barrels and 58 billion barrels, followed by China, Argentina and Libya. The other countries on the top 10 list of countries with technically recoverable shale include Australia, Venezuela, Mexico, Pakistan and Canada.

The EIA report also shows a marked increase in the number of prospective shale deposits globally compared to an earlier 2011 report. That report listed 32 countries with shale versus 41 in 2013, 48 basins versus 95, and half the number of formations, at 69 in 2011 versus 137 in 2013

investing.com



32 Comments on "Crude Oil: Abundance Wins Over Depletion Theory"

  1. Northwest Resident on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 1:28 am 

    A marked increase in the number of prospective shale deposits globally is GREAT news for those governments that want to exponentially expand their debt to create a short term “boom” that can never pay off the debt incurred to finance it. And even better news for those people around the world who are seriously considering severe degradation of their environment. For those who have plenty of unfilled oil storage capacity, fracked oil is just the thing to fill up that unused capacity — every country should have their own oil glut.

    When all that’s left is fracking “opportunities”, it is no wonder that corporate executives are looking into the crystal ball and seeing nothing worth investing in long term. So instead of launching projects or new products to build a better future, they instead invest profits and ZIRP debt to buy back stock, they cut expenses by laying off employees — for all practical purposes, they are hunkering down for the storm that they know is coming.

    “nobody wants to invest in the long-term because nobody knows what is going to happen.” — Alan Greenspan

  2. forbin on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 4:27 am 

    I can assure the reader that even at $500 boe that the planet is still finite , whatever we re-classify as oil is still finite and logically therefore it will peak

    EIA report = it estimated “technically recoverable” (as opposed to economically recoverable) + investing.com probably means there’s some snake oil to be sold ….

    Forbin

  3. yoananda on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:22 am 

    Abundance of barrels, yes, but who cares ?

    Abundance of net energy in BTU ? show us where it is !

    LTO is not sweet crude.

  4. Davy on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:23 am 

    NR said – A marked increase in the number of prospective shale deposits globally is GREAT news for those governments that want to exponentially expand their debt to create a short term “boom” that can never pay off the debt incurred to finance it.

    It is not only shale it is all large capital intensive undertaking of BAUman. We just don’t have the time nor money to expand infrastructure at this point. We did during the bumpy plateau which was a period of peaks and stagnation. We continued some faux growth with wealth transfer policies and cannibalization of the public for the private. We are triaging out whole segments of populations domestically and globally.

    The infrastructure needed from fusion, overseas shales, LNG terminals, and grans AltE constructions is not there nor will it happen enough and in time to arrest the vicious cycle down of demand and supply destruction of vital resources. In the meantime depletion continues, ecological failures continue, population grow, infrastructure degrades, and the economic system is destabilizing. That folks is the perfect storm of the bumpy descent.

    BAUtopians just can’t fathom the end of growth. That can fathom their technology, innovation, and religion of efficiency being beaten by entropy. They believe the entropy monster has been slain. We are out of time and money to put is simply with a growing family. We are broke with the grim reaper lurking around. Black meat eating swans are circling. Yet, the BAUtopians are clamoring that all is well. The wild and decadent celebrations of the modern day Moai statues being erected continue as the populations starve.

    This is the end days folks. No way to tell the time frame but all the elements of a system in bifurcation at every level are in place. If things appear normal that is because entropy has infiltrated everything like a sophisticated computer virus. At the right time all those interconnected systems of a population in vast overshoot will have cascading failures. The weakest link will cause the entire system to degrade and rather quickly for want of spare parts and energy. Prep folks and locate properly and NOW.

  5. Aire on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:41 am 

    investing.com – go ahead sheeple and throw more of your money away because technically there are hundreds of billions of oil available!

    They conveniently don’t talk about this abundant “new” oil of having much less energy intensity as the conventional oil which the article points out is declining at about 6.7/year

  6. shortonoil on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 7:39 am 

    Ghawar, the world’s largest field, has an estimated 70 billion barrels of remaining reserves, more than all but seven other countries, according to the EIA.

    This number has shown up over, and over again in the MSM. We know that at this point Ghawar has at least a 50% water cut, and that translates into an oil seam of less than 30 feet. Ghawar originally had a 350 foot oil seam. It is now over 90% depleted! Ghawar had an estimated 70 billion barrels 60 years ago. Most of that is gone. Attempting to perpetuate such a complete BOLD FACE LIE can only mean that the industry is getting frantic. The recent price decline will soon be wiping out production around the world, and there is no relief in sight:

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

    Any pretense that sub $100 oil allows for shale extraction anywhere is pure delusion. We recently finished a set of graphs for Bakken production, and the results are shocking. We will post those graphs in the near future. To maintain maximum cash flow producers in the Bakken have increased flow rates dramatically. This is resulting in horrendous decline rates. Wells drilled in 2014 are declining from an initial production rate of 470 b/d to 158 after 12 months. The only reason to do something like this would be to keep the Sheriff at bay a little while longer.

    $50 oil has put the entire industry into a desperation mode. Production costs have increased 32% since the last time oil was at $50 in 2005. Expect a plethora of articles referring to the vast abundance of oil in the world. It is a vast abundance of oil that no one can afford to take out of the ground, or that no one can afford to buy.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

  7. Davy on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 8:16 am 

    Slightly off topic and for all the China lovers here. We know China has engaged in significant bilateral oil deals of the past several years. IMA at the high range of oil prices. If those prices do not return and we are in a bumpy descent cycle of declining demand and supply and resulting depressed oil prices then China just bought a mother lode of expensive oil. Maybe some of you know more about these bilateral deals. I wonder if they have escape clauses or if they are based on spot prices or a combination.

    My point is the China crowing agenda seeking tabloid loving agendists may be eating possum soon. Well, they already are with their Bric fantasies and dollar torture porn. I am not waving the flag here. BAU is a dead man walking. The US is in cultural overshoot (a fine term Dubya turned me on to). I just want to mention there is no phoenix in the east rising. There is no 1000 year Asian Reich rising like the Makster is proselytizing.

  8. rockman on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 9:16 am 

    Davy – I don’t have a good handle on the split between long term oil contract, drilling JV’s and undeveloped in ground reserves they directly own. But: long term contracts are always based on some bench mark which means that China can buy all the oil they’ve contracted for at a much lower price then existed at the time they cut the deal. Plus an added bonus: they don’t have to compete with other buyers for that cheaper oil because they control it via those contacts.

    Drilling JV’s: typically they would be structured so China would pay a disproportionate share of the cost. As more rigs go idle the cost to drill and the materials utilized will be cheaper. With respect to offshore plays like Angola much of that oil will be produced years down the road so today’s prices aren’t very relevant.

    The same is true for the unproduced oil in the ground that China owns directly. Much of that oil was developed using economic analysis based on oil prices at or below current prices.

    China’s oil development were never based solely on the economics of a project. This efforts were very focused upon guaranteeing future access to oil. I’m sure China is looking very hard at acquiring even more access to future oil production by capitalizing on lower oil prices which has created the best “buyers market” in 5+ years. Folks need to remember: China is primarily an oil buyer/importer/consumer and not an oil seller. Overall I suspect the Chinese PTB are very pleased to see the lower oil prices given as of this January they were importing oil at the rate of 2.6 BILLION bbls/year. Oil selling for $40/bbl less cuts their tab around $100 BILLION PER YEAR. Given their insane economic growth has dropped to just a ridiculous positive level I’m pretty sure they are pleased with the current dynamic.

  9. Davy on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 9:58 am 

    Rock, OK, me being an ANTI-(China crowing agenda seeking tabloid loving agendists) person then according to your comment I lost that argument. I will mention this, if, and or when the global economy begins its slowdown all those Chinese oil investments are not going to be needed. If the Chinese are not exporting Barbie dolls to the west and building ghost cities on prime farm land then are they really going to need all those long term oil contracts? NO. That is the big BAUif granted but a distinct possibility

    Personally I am not anti-Chinese. I am a big fan of Taoism, green tea, and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_pot. To be honest China crowing agenda seeking tabloid loving agendists just get under my skin. I will pull my pants down if they will so to speak. What I mean by that is the US and China are both in dire straits economically. Both are very large global economies heavily reliant on BAU globalism. China is in a population overshoot and the US in a cultural (consumption) overshoot.

  10. rockman on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 10:06 am 

    Davy – We’ll have to wait to see how it all balances out. But as far as future oil (i.e. motor fuel) consumption the last stat I saw Chinese consumers were buying more vehicles annually the US consumers. And I don’t have the stats handy but China exports a great deal of industrial equipment and materials to the rest of the world along with the junk.

  11. Plantagenet on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 11:10 am 

    Even though we are in an oil glut now, conventional oil production is going to drop off badly when the world’s largest oilfield— Ghawar in KSA—- is depleted—-and by all signs Ghawar is mostly depleted already. The claim in the article that Ghawar still has 70 Billion bbls of oil are incorrect.

  12. Kenz300 on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 11:40 am 

    Getting the last drop of oil out of the ground will destroy the planet……… It is time to wake up and transition to safer, cleaner and cheaper alternative energy sources.

    The fossil fuel industry is fighting to slow any transition to alternatives. Big money and the top 1% want it all no matter what the damage to the planet they cause……… just keep the money rolling in…..

    Pope Francis On Climate Change: Man Has ‘Slapped Nature In The Face’

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/15/pope-francis-climate-change_n_6477388.html?utm_hp_ref=generation-change

  13. robertinget on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 1:28 pm 

    Sixty percent of the world’s population
    live in Asia. Even with minimal 3% growth, (it’s now over 5%) unless we come up with oil replacements last week, China and India’s 2.7 Billion will soon, (5 years) require ALL the world’s oil currently exported.

    Africa, Nigeria in particular ‘enjoy’ rapid population growth which in turn gobbles up massive amounts of current production.

    WE are just now previewing budget deficit damage in oil export dependent
    nations. Imagine the fate of billions now almost totally dependent
    on oil exports when their situations become permanent. China stops ‘lending’,
    Saudi Arabia stops supporting Egypt.
    On and on.

    *Near term, oil prices will recover as shortages build eating away at today’s arb situations.

    *As elections near, Israeli government hawks are busy making bold threats on Iran. IMO nothing should come of all this right wing war-drum beating.
    (the big However)
    Increased tensions could lead to ‘accidental’
    beginnings of a war that changes the entire Mideast dynamic, including of course oil exports.

    If you’re interested, simply go to Google-News and read page after page of
    Israeli and Iranian war mongering.
    I’m just saying, accidental war only hours away for the next few weeks.

    AS much as I would love to see KSA
    bastard oil shorters get their asses drilled, an Israeli/Iranian war might well end-up killing us all– slowly — painfully.

  14. Kenz300 on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 1:45 pm 

    No more wars for OIL……….

    It is time to get off fossil fuels before they destroy the planet…….

  15. BobInget on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 2:25 pm 

    Easyer to hope for Kenz300..

    Here’s latest ‘consumption’ EIA report for
    week ending Feb 20.

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.6 million barrels
    per day, UP by 5.1% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor
    gasoline product supplied averaged over 8.6 million barrels per day, UP by 3.3% from the
    same period last year. *Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 4.1 million barrels
    per day over the last four weeks, UP by 11.2% from the same period last year.
    ** Jet Fuel
    product supplied is UP 7.5% compared to the same four-week period last year.

    * Distillates include heating oil and diesel
    I suspect that 11% jump is mostly HO.

    ** Jet fuel is a solid economic indicator

  16. Rodster on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 2:29 pm 

    Davy- “I will mention this, if, and or when the global economy begins its slowdown all those Chinese oil investments are not going to be needed. If the Chinese are not exporting Barbie dolls to the west and building ghost cities on prime farm land then are they really going to need all those long term oil contracts? NO.”

    When we go down the drain so will everyone else. There will be 1.2 billion Chinese citizens with no jobs and mad as hell at their politicians.

    I’ve said it many times and so has Gail Tverberg that the entire planet is interconnected financially and economically. We will all be circling the drain in different stages and according to Marty Armstrong we will be the last man to flip the lights out.

    Never before has man been this stupid to interconnect the global economies and follow the same fiat currency meme at the behest of it’s central banks.

    Back to the Dark Ages ye suckers.

  17. Davy on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 2:48 pm 

    Rodstar, I am on the same page. I have continually preached this fact. The US and China have significant ties economically. They are like a coin you can’t have the heads without the tails. This is what I try to relate to the local China crow and anti-American Makster. Both the US and Chinese economies are extremely sensitive to even the slightest economic moves. So tell me how are the two largest global economies going to decouple? It ain’t gonna happen during BAU’s watch.

    This BAU decouple is just not going to happen until BAUdoom. When we have a good ole fashion depression and probably worse. At a depression or worse point the economies will decouple because there is no choice not because some 1000 year Asian Reich is going to rise like a phoenix casting the west off like a discarded cocoon. This will be forced localization because the machinery of globalized trade will not function. JIT production and distribution will seize up. When it does so will global movements of food and oil. The other extremely BAU important item is confidence and liquidity. The letters of credit will stop with a severe crisis. So in conclusion China and the US are stuck with each other for now until death do us part.

  18. Rodster on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 3:03 pm 

    “The US and China have significant ties economically.”

    Without Dell Computers, Lenovo, Apple, Walmart, Target, Best Buy etc……. there would be No China !

    And it doesn’t matter how much gold they own it won’t save them or anyone else when the mother of all economic and social reset occurs.

  19. Rodster on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 3:09 pm 

    The world needs to get back to regional economies which is what Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul and Ross Perot used to preach. They were all marginalized by the dumbasses like Hannity, Limbaugh etc. as isolationist.

    There absolutely NO phucking reason why living in Florida I should have to buy lower grade citrus fruits from other parts of the world. Shit, Florida is the home of Tropicana.

    Why waste energy shipping products around the world when you can make it at home and employ your own people?

    The answer is BIG CORP. They don’t want to be shutout of the global markets. Monsanto would cry if they can’t sell their frankenstein seeds to other parts of the world and control their FOOD SUPPLY.

  20. Plantagenet on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 3:39 pm 

    Blaming Limbaugh and Hannity for globalized agriculture does’t make any sense. Limbaugh and Hannity are entertainers, not politicians or regulators.

    The big free trade treaties were put in place by both the Rs AND the Ds. Clinton and the Dems got things really rolling with NAFTA and right now Obama and the Ds are trying to get authority to enact another free trade treaty.

  21. ghung on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 4:24 pm 

    Plant: “Limbaugh and Hannity are entertainers, not politicians or regulators.

    Jeez, Plant, do you think their millions of listeners know the difference or even care? These guys have an enormous influence and manufacture a lot of consent for the crap they espouse.

    As for global trade, follow the money, and look at NAFTA. As you alluded to, the ‘Trans-Pacific Partnership’, if the US signs on, will be like NAFTA on steroids. Further, agribusiness is global and many corporations are foreign-owned like Smithfield (wholey Chinese owned; one of North America’s largest meat packers. Think they’ll tolerate trade restrictions (hurts American farmers and all that). Cargill, Dow, DuPont, Monsanto, ADM, etc., own a big chunk of DC, and do business worldwide.

  22. shortonoil on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 4:49 pm 

    Davy, if you are looking for an indicator as to when things have started to come unglued, keep an eye out for oil industry bankruptcies. We expect an avalanche of them over the next five years. Petroleum directly powers 38% of the world’s economy. When it goes so will everything else. They are the canary in the mine.

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

  23. Apneaman on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:05 pm 

    Here is the kind of abundance they never talk about.

    Hundreds of illicit oil wastewater pits found in Kern County

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-pits-oil-wastewater-20150226-story.html

  24. Northwest Resident on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:11 pm 

    One way or another, the next five years are going to be very interesting — in a tumultuous, chaotic and nerve wracking kind of way. And that’s best case scenario. What an amazing time to be alive and to be cognizant of what is happening. We are all riding one very big historical wave. Sure, it may end up smashing us into the rocks or drowning us in turbulent waters when it finally breaks. But hey, what a ride!!!

  25. Apneaman on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:33 pm 

    Good analogy NW, but there are other ways the ocean (close to home)can get us too. Stay away from the water is taking on a whole new meaning.

    Starving Sea Lion Pups and Liquified Starfish — How We’ve Turned the Eastern Pacific into A Death Trap for Marine Species

    https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/starving-sea-lion-pups-and-liquified-starfish-how-were-turning-the-eastern-pacific-into-a-death-trap-for-marine-species/

  26. Davy on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 5:42 pm 

    Thanks, Short, another indicator to add to the Doom watch detector.

    I think about doom through the day and every day. I am not fearful with this daily dooming. It is a guide in the background of my mind. If I am making an investment decision I think about the doom variable. When I hear news or hear people talk about subjects the doom light goes on to reality test the subject per doomerism. I doom so often that it is second nature and normal.

    What never gets normal is the surreal nature of BAU. Highways and large urban areas in particular. I find them so fascinatingly fragile. All those people interacting with complexity and energy intensity. It boggles my mind to think about that complexity and energy intensity diminishing.

    I do find myself dooming sometimes with dread. This generally happens when my kids are the subject. It is painful to think about what they face in as little as 5 to 10 years.

  27. Perk Earl on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 6:26 pm 

    “Starving Sea Lion Pups and Liquified Starfish — How We’ve Turned the Eastern Pacific into A Death Trap for Marine Species”

    Ap, thanks for the link. I’ve lived in the SF bay area since 63 and the waters along the coast have always in the past been dark green and in the low 50’s F. Last year we were out at a beach just north of Bodega Bay. The coast waters within a few hundred feet of shore were a very pale green, evidence of much warmer water. I was shocked by it but didn’t give it another thought until reading this article. Very unfortunate but also indicative of the wide spread changes we are forcing.

  28. Plantagenet on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 8:01 pm 

    @ghung

    Calm down and think about it.

    Bill Clinton and the Ds passed NAFTA, not Rush and Hannity. Blaming Rush and Hannity for NAFTA is silly, when it was Bill CLinton and the Ds who passed and signed NAFTA into law.

  29. Plantagenet on Fri, 27th Feb 2015 8:04 pm 

    @short

    Yes, we are going to see a lot of oil company bankruptcies. AND a few companies have already gone bankrupt. For instance:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/wbh-bankruptcy-idUSL1N0UN01Z20150108

    But thats not a sign of the end of the world—its a sign that the oil glut has caused oil prices to drop so far that some oil companies so go into bankruptcy.

  30. Amvet on Sat, 28th Feb 2015 5:54 am 

    The Feb 2015 EIA data on US shale production is worth a look.

    Percent of new production that is negated by declines in old production.
    Bakken oil 86% NG 85%
    Eagle Ford oil 89% NG 78.6%
    Haynesville oil 100% NG 71.6&
    Marcellus oil 75% NG 78.4%
    Niobrara oil 82.7% NG 87%
    Permian oil 69.7% NG 73%
    Utica oil 33% NG 41%

  31. Kenz300 on Sat, 28th Feb 2015 9:15 am 

    RepubliCONS let polluters off with a slap on the wrist……

    Fossil fuel companies consider small fines a cost of doing business……

    Exxon Settles $9 Billion Pollution Case in New Jersey for Far Less – NYTimes.com

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/28/nyregion/exxon-mobil-settles-with-new-jersey-over-environmental-damage.html

  32. synapsid on Sat, 28th Feb 2015 2:54 pm 

    Thank you Amvet!

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